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????上周，科技博客GigaOm在紐約舉辦了Big Data大會(huì)。在會(huì)上，巴諾公司（Barnes & Noble）高管馬克?帕里什登臺(tái)與大家探討了圖書出版行業(yè)正在經(jīng)歷的劇烈變化。

????帕里什表示：“相對(duì)于電影、音樂以及報(bào)紙行業(yè)，圖書行業(yè)現(xiàn)在的變化更加徹底而迅速。因?yàn)槲覀兘?jīng)歷的時(shí)間不過幾個(gè)月左右。未來24個(gè)月里，整個(gè)行業(yè)將完全改變。”帕里什此言暗示電子書今后將主導(dǎo)市場(chǎng)。（不過在會(huì)后的跟進(jìn)采訪中，帕里什表示自己并無意給出精確的時(shí)間表。）

????帕里什列舉了來自Codex Forrester和高德納咨詢（Gartner Research）的數(shù)據(jù)作為佐證：在某種程度上，30%的讀者同時(shí)購買了電子書和實(shí)體書。巴諾公司預(yù)計(jì)2011年電子閱讀器的銷量將達(dá)到1800萬部，35%的讀者將會(huì)擁有一部電子書閱讀器。而2009年，電子書閱讀器的銷量還僅為90萬部。就實(shí)際圖書銷量而言，據(jù)美國出版商協(xié)會(huì)（Association of American Publishers）報(bào)道，今年1月，美國電子書銷售額達(dá)到7000萬美元，與去年同期相比暴漲116%。相比之下，今年1月份的成人平裝書銷量則從去年同期的1.042億美元下滑至8360萬美元。

????考慮到上文的數(shù)據(jù)，再結(jié)合電子書的飛速普及，帕里什暗示，出版業(yè)馬上將面臨“拐點(diǎn)”——相對(duì)于紙質(zhì)書，越來越多的讀者將會(huì)更傾向于電子書。

????音樂業(yè)和電影業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型遇到了很多困難，圖書出版業(yè)也一樣，它的轉(zhuǎn)型也一波三折。當(dāng)然，占據(jù)了有利地位的亞馬遜（Amazon）和蘋果（Apple）將從中受益。亞馬遜今年1月份表示，其電子書銷量已超過平裝書；而蘋果也表示，從去年4月至今，iBooks商店的電子書下載量已達(dá)到1億次。不過像巴諾、Borders這樣的傳統(tǒng)實(shí)體書店則還在苦苦掙扎。后者在上月根據(jù)美國聯(lián)邦破產(chǎn)法第11章向法院申請(qǐng)了破產(chǎn)保護(hù)。

????即便是谷歌（Google）這種沒有實(shí)體書店束縛的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)巨頭也遇到了麻煩。上周早些時(shí)候，法院駁回了谷歌和眾多出版商及作者在2008年達(dá)成的一份價(jià)值1.25億美元的協(xié)議。該協(xié)議允許谷歌將數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的書籍在線數(shù)字化。

????如果帕里什的預(yù)言是準(zhǔn)確的，電子書將在2013年3月主導(dǎo)圖書市場(chǎng)。那么問題將不再是誰會(huì)成為領(lǐng)頭羊，而是誰會(huì)因?yàn)闊o法跟上最新的科技步伐而被淘汰出局。

????譯者：項(xiàng)航

????At the GigaOm Big Data conference in New York City this week, Barnes & Noble (BKS) executive Marc Parrish took the stage to discuss rapid changes in the book publishing industry.

????"The book business is changing more radically now, and quicker, than movies or music or newspapers have, because we're doing it in a matter of months," he said. "In [the] next 24 months is when this business will totally shift," implying that eBooks will dominate sales. (Note: In a post-conference follow-up, Parrish now says he didn't mean to put a specific timeline on the shift.)

????As evidence, he pointed to numbers from Codex Forrester and Gartner Research: 30% of all readers consume both ebooks and print books to some degree. For 2011, the company predicts 18 million ereaders will be sold -- compared with just 900,000 sold in 2009 -- and 35% of readers will own come to own one. As for actual book sales, the Association of American Publishers reported ebooks in the U.S. brought in $70 million last January, a 116% increase from the same month last year, while adult paperback sales fell from$104.2 million to $83.6 million during the same period.

????Given those numbers, and the rapid pace of adoption, Parrish implies the industry will soon reach a point where more readers will prefer ebooks than print.

????Just as the transformation in music and movies was rough, the shift in the book industry has been anything but smooth. Sure, Amazon and Apple are well-poised to benefit -- Amazon (AMZN) reported in January that ebook sales passed paperback sales, and Apple (AAPL) has said 100 million ebooks have been downloaded via its iBooks store since last April -- but traditional brick and mortar stores, including Barnes and Noble and Borders, the latter of which filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy protection last month, continue to struggle.

????Even Google (GOOG), an Internet giant with no brick and mortar legacy to tie it down, is running into trouble. Earlier this week, a judge struck down a 2008 deal between Google and various author and publisher groups worth $125 million that allows the company to make millions of books available online.

????If Parrish's predictions are right and ebooks become the dominant book medium by March 2013, the question changes from who will come out on top, but who will get left behind in the newest race of technological relevancy.