????雖然iPad極具誘惑力，但是在經(jīng)濟困難時期，很多人面對iPad高達500美元的售價還是會望而卻步。這就是為什么Kindle在這樣一個iPad時代里仍然能保持很高的銷量。早些時候曾有人認為，蘋果的iBooks應用和iPad版的Kindle應用將使Kindle平板成為一款邊緣設備，現(xiàn)在這種臆斷也已不攻自破。

????老款的Kindle平板電腦的確不是一款所謂的邊緣產(chǎn)品。雖然亞馬遜不會披露Kindle平板的具體銷售數(shù)據(jù)，但據(jù)分析人士的估算，Kindle平板已經(jīng)賣出了數(shù)百萬臺，很大程度上是因為它的售價只有139美元（現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)下降到了109美元，或是79美元的帶廣告版）。新款Kindle Fire的價格現(xiàn)為199美元，比之前盛傳的生產(chǎn)成本還低了20美元。

????亞馬遜Kindle Fire平板電腦的鎖定的目標人群僅僅只是將平板電腦當成一種娛樂設備，花500美元不值得，200美元則剛剛好。早期的跡象已經(jīng)證明了這一點：Kindle Fire推出才5天，預訂用戶人數(shù)就超過了25萬人，據(jù)科技博客Cult of Android的計算，這個速度已經(jīng)接近iPad 2發(fā)布時的情形。

????Kindle Fire發(fā)布后將不可避免地蠶食掉蘋果在平板電腦市場上的一部分份額，但這并不意味著它一定會減緩蘋果iPad的市場銷量。Kindle Fire正在低端市場上安營扎寨，把高端市場留給了iPad。另外，隨著市場高低兩端主打內(nèi)容的平板電腦越來越多，總有一天，平板電腦在家庭中會像今天的電視一樣普遍。平板電腦市場總體會呈現(xiàn)增長加速，這股增長的勢頭會同時抬高亞馬遜和蘋果的銷量，推動這兩家公司產(chǎn)品生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的發(fā)展。

????對于蘋果來說，它的問題很可能要等到幾年后才會浮出水面。蘋果必須努力在沒有喬布斯的情況下保持領導地位。而且隨著時間的推移，要保持iPad作為一款高端平板的吸引力也會越來越難（iPhone 4S的發(fā)布使一些人相信，在智能手機上，蘋果已經(jīng)開始失去吸引力了）。

????隨著市場的成熟，產(chǎn)品也會日趨同質(zhì)化。這種現(xiàn)象在PC行業(yè)已經(jīng)發(fā)生過了：有些功能以前只屬于某些高級產(chǎn)品，但它們漸漸會普及到低端市場上，這時價格就成了左右消費者選擇的重要因素。出現(xiàn)這種現(xiàn)象時，高端市場就會縮水，變成一個小眾市場。

????蘋果的Macbook系列筆記本使蘋果在高端PC市場上處于一個贏利的增長地位，這個市場上一臺筆記本的價格動輒數(shù)百美元。未來幾年里，iPad也會成為平板電腦市場上的高端產(chǎn)品。然而，一旦平板電腦成為廉價商品，蘋果就必須下大力氣，才能保證它在創(chuàng)新上的吸引力。屆時，蘋果必須再從它的魔法帽子里“變”出一個全新的重磅炸彈。

????譯者：樸成奎

????As appealing as an iPad is, many people in these tough economic times have held off on spending $500 for a tablet computer. That's a big reason why the Kindle has remained a hot seller in the age of the iPad, defying early predictions that the iBooks and Kindle apps on the iPad would turn the Kindle into a fringe device.

????Indeed, the original Kindle was not a fringe product. Amazon won't disclose Kindles sales figures, but analysts estimate several million have sold, thanks in good part to its $139 price tag (now reduced to $109, or $79 with ads). The Kindle Fire is selling for $199 -- $20 less than it reportedly costs to make.

????With the Kindle Fire, Amazon is betting that people who see a tablet as an entertainment device might think $500 is too rich, but $200 is worth it. Early indications validate that: More than 250,000 pre-orders were placed for the Kindle Fire in the first five days, a pace that Cult of Android reckons is close to the iPad 2's launch.

????When the Kindle Fire launches, it will inevitably eat into Apple's share of the tablet market. But that won't necessarily mean it's slowing Apple's sales of the iPad. The Kindle Fire is setting up camp at the low-end of the market, leaving the high-end for the iPad. And with a robust offering of content-rich tablets at both ends of the market, tablets could become a device as ubiquitous in homes as the TV is today. The overall industry could see growth accelerate -- the proverbial rising tide that will lift sales at Amazon and Apple alike, boosting both firms' ecosystems.

????For Apple, the concern is more likely to surface a few years down the road. Apple will be pushing to maintain its leadership without Steve Jobs, and maintaining the iPad's allure as a high-end tablet will be grow harder in time (the iPhone 4S announcement left some convinced this is already happening in smartphones.)

????When markets mature they become commoditized over time. This happened in the PC industry: What were once features exclusive to premium products migrate slowly down to the lower-end of the market, and price becomes the paramount factor for consumers. When that happens, the high-end gets smaller, becoming a niche.

????Apple's Macbooks have given it a lucrative and growing position at the high-end of a PC market where most of the machines sold are commodities priced at a several hundred dollars. For the next few years, the iPad will do the same in the tablet market. But once tablets become low-priced commodities, Apple will have its work cut out for it to retain the iPad's innovative allure. That's when it'll have to pull the next big thing out of its hat.