????上周，思科公司（Cisco）宣布即將裁員上千人。這無(wú)異于自揭傷疤，將麻煩纏身的事實(shí)昭告天下。

????接著，本周一，《彭博新聞》（Bloomberg News）掌握了思科的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手惠普公司（HP）首席執(zhí)行官李艾科的一份備忘錄。在備忘錄中， 李艾科指示屬下10名高管說(shuō)，惠普需要控制成本，限制招募新人，勒緊褲腰帶，準(zhǔn)備挨過(guò)“下一個(gè)艱難的季度”。由于此次泄密事件，惠普被迫于周二公布了季度業(yè)績(jī)，這比原計(jì)劃提前了一天。

????惠普本財(cái)季的成績(jī)尚可，但前景不容樂(lè)觀。在4月30日結(jié)束的財(cái)季中，贏利增加了5%（好于預(yù)期），營(yíng)業(yè)收入增長(zhǎng)了3%（與該公司自己預(yù)計(jì)的相差無(wú)幾）。但是，惠普降低了其2011年的預(yù)期值。在那份泄密的備忘錄中，李艾科吩咐公司高管道，惠普“在開(kāi)支方面必須斟酌每一分錢(qián)，并將招聘成本降至最低。”惠普這個(gè)上世紀(jì)90年代的IT寵兒，緊步思科后塵，已經(jīng)成為最新一個(gè)出局者。現(xiàn)在，它只能眼巴巴地向里張望，眼瞅著移動(dòng)計(jì)算、云計(jì)算以及社交計(jì)算領(lǐng)域內(nèi)發(fā)生的革命，已經(jīng)幾乎完全與自己擦肩而過(guò)。

????惠普自認(rèn)前景慘淡，并將原因歸咎于消費(fèi)者對(duì)個(gè)人計(jì)算機(jī)的需求減弱（盡管商用個(gè)人計(jì)算機(jī)需求好于預(yù)期），其服務(wù)業(yè)務(wù)更是步履維艱，目前正在重組。

????惠普服務(wù)部門(mén)困難重重，一方面，與群龍無(wú)首有關(guān)；另一方面，該部門(mén)亦無(wú)像樣的策略出臺(tái)。李艾科在面向分析師召開(kāi)的電話(huà)會(huì)議上表示，服務(wù)部門(mén)還需要近半年的時(shí)間，才能與客戶(hù)簽署基于云計(jì)算等高利潤(rùn)產(chǎn)品的合同。（備注：這是否意味著惠普服務(wù)部門(mén)的客戶(hù)即將“破財(cái)”？）

????說(shuō)到服務(wù)，李艾科禁不住譴責(zé)公司前任首席執(zhí)行官馬克?赫德。去年8月，赫德離開(kāi)了惠普，李艾科于同年11月接任。“過(guò)去，我們總是大談特談策略，但從未成功地將之付諸實(shí)踐?！崩畎票局芏?duì)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》（Wall Street Journal）表示。

????此外，某種程度上，惠普還將消費(fèi)類(lèi)個(gè)人計(jì)算機(jī)市場(chǎng)趨于疲軟一事歸罪于日本大地震。該公司表示，這不僅因?yàn)槿毡臼袌?chǎng)的銷(xiāo)量下降了，而且地震還中斷了產(chǎn)品的供給線(xiàn)。并且，該公司又提及，個(gè)人計(jì)算機(jī)銷(xiāo)量下降，亦與消費(fèi)者對(duì)平板電腦的需求增加有關(guān)?；萜障ＭM(fèi)者屆時(shí)能購(gòu)買(mǎi)自己即將上市的平板電腦TouchPad。該產(chǎn)品搭載WebOS平臺(tái)，將于今夏交付使用。

????本周二，Gleacher & Co.公司分析師布萊恩?馬歇爾向客戶(hù)提交了一份文件。文件中有段措辭尖銳的評(píng)論：“昔日，惠普以其一貫的上佳表現(xiàn)和卓越的運(yùn)營(yíng)而聞名業(yè)界；如今，它已成了不受歡迎的代名詞（諸如管理層的更迭、領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力的降低、泄密等等）。”投資者“希望其投資對(duì)象既能做到始終如一，同時(shí)又要盡量減少意外變故?！瘪R歇爾繼續(xù)寫(xiě)道：“不幸的是，惠普最近哪樣兒也沒(méi)做到?！?/p>

????論及惠普的未來(lái)，財(cái)經(jīng)評(píng)論網(wǎng)站Breakingviews的克里斯托弗?斯萬(wàn)總結(jié)道：既然惠普已經(jīng)公布了其“慘淡的前景預(yù)測(cè)”，現(xiàn)在面臨的問(wèn)題就是“惠普能否迅速地從個(gè)人計(jì)算機(jī)和打印機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)轉(zhuǎn)向平板電腦、移動(dòng)計(jì)算和云計(jì)算?！?/p>

????譯者：大海

????Last week, Cisco's troubles were made painfully apparent when the company announced there would be layoffs, likely in the thousands.

????Then on Monday Bloomberg News got hold of a memo from Leo Apotheker, CEO of Cisco's (CSCO) rival HP (HPQ), telling 10 of his top executives that they need to control costs, to limit hiring and to gird their loins for "another tough quarter." The leak forced HP to issue its quarterlies on Tuesday, a day earlier than planned.

????The numbers look OK; the outlook doesn't. Profits in the quarter ending April 30 were up 5% (better than expected) and revenues were up 3% (about what the company had forecast). But the company lowered its 2011 outlook. In the leaked memo, Apotheker told execs that the company "must watch every penny and minimize all hiring." Like Cisco then, HP is the latest big tech darling of the 90's to find itself on the outside, looking in at a revolution in mobile, cloud and social computing that has largely passed it by.

????HP blames its worsening outlook on weak consumer demand for personal computers (though business PC demand is stronger than expected) and, mainly, trouble with its services business, which it is in the midst of restructuring.

????Part of the problem is that the services unit has no chief. It also doesn't seem to have much of a strategy in place. In a conference call with analysts, Apotheker said it will take perhaps six months to get the services unit to sign customers on to higher-margin contracts for such products as cloud computing. (Side note: does this amount to a signal to services customers that they are about to be gouged?)

????For this, Apotheker seemed to blame former CEO Mark Hurd, who left the company last August (Apotheker took over in November). "We talked strategy, we just failed to execute in the past," Apotheker told the Wall Street Journal on Tuesday.

????And the company is also blaming the Japan earthquake, in part, for weakness in the consumer PC market -- sales are down in Japan, it said, and the quake had disrupted supply lines as well. The company also cited consumer demand for tablets eating into PC sales. The company is pinning its consumer hopes on its own forthcoming tablet product, the TouchPad, built on the WebOS platform. That product is due this summer.

????Gleacher & Co. analyst Brian Marshall issued a note on Tuesday including this biting passage: "Historically known for its consistent performance and operational excellence, Hewlett-Packard is now associated with more undesirable attributes (e.g., management changes, lowering of guidance, internal leaks, etc.)." Investors want "both consistency and lack of surprises from its portfolio companies," he continued. "Unfortunately, Hewlett-Packard is delivering neither" lately.

????As for the future, Breakingviews' Chrisopher Swann concluded that, having issued its "grim forecast," the question now is "whether HP can move quickly enough from PCs and printers to tablets, mobile and the cloud."