国产一精品一AV一免费,亚洲成AV人片不卡无码,AV永久天堂一区二区三区,国产激情久久久久影院

首頁 500強(qiáng) 活動 榜單 商業(yè) 科技 商潮 專題 品牌中心
雜志訂閱

“壓力山大”的庫克,目前仍是蘋果CEO的最佳人選

Geoff Colvin
2025-07-26

一些專家認(rèn)為,在人工智能領(lǐng)域,蘋果首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫克還有未竟之業(yè)。

文本設(shè)置
小號
默認(rèn)
大號
Plus(0條)

圖片來源:GETTY IMAGES

蘋果首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫克該走人了嗎?過去幾周發(fā)生的事情可能會讓人們產(chǎn)生這種想法。然而,研究首席執(zhí)行官繼任問題的頂尖專家建議要冷靜處理,并從大局出發(fā)。這一點說明,庫克或?qū)⒃谖磥頂?shù)年內(nèi)繼續(xù)擔(dān)任公司首席執(zhí)行官,以及此舉甚至可能是蘋果的最佳選擇。近期傳出了多個令人沮喪的消息:一位高級人工智能研究員離職,而就在數(shù)周后,一位蘋果人工智能高管轉(zhuǎn)投Meta。這些消息尤其令人痛心,因為人們普遍認(rèn)為蘋果在人工智能這個全球最熱門的技術(shù)領(lǐng)域處于落后地位。Wedbush公司分析師丹?艾夫斯表示,上個月蘋果的年度全球開發(fā)者大會“令人昏昏欲睡”,而蘋果通常會在這個場合推出令人驚嘆的新產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)。在微軟和Alphabet公司股價創(chuàng)下新高之際,蘋果今年的股價卻下跌了16%。

難怪華爾街研究公司Lightshed認(rèn)為庫克不適合繼續(xù)執(zhí)掌蘋果。該公司寫道,蘋果 “現(xiàn)在需要一位專注于產(chǎn)品的首席執(zhí)行官,而不是專注于物流的首席執(zhí)行官。人工智能不是蘋果隨便‘動動手指’就能搞定的事情。在人工智能領(lǐng)域落后可能會從根本上改變公司的長期發(fā)展軌跡和增長能力?!?/p>

按照早些時候的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),庫克無論如何都該離職了。到8月,他的首席執(zhí)行官任期將達(dá)到14年,而且到11月將迎來65歲的生日。不過,65歲在如今已不算什么特別的年齡,而且沒有哪個董事會會急于解雇像他這樣的首席執(zhí)行官,因為他創(chuàng)造的股東價值遠(yuǎn)高于其傳奇般的前任史蒂夫?喬布斯。至少從理論上講,庫克和董事會有很大的選擇空間。

那么庫克和董事會應(yīng)該怎么做?為了得到權(quán)威答案,《財富》邀請了三位杰出的高管獵頭專家,他們每個人都曾為數(shù)十家大型公司的董事會提供過繼任管理方面的咨詢。為了確保他們說出真實想法,我們同意了其匿名要求。以下是他們看法的匯總,以及杰出的商業(yè)歷史學(xué)家理查德?泰德洛的最終觀點。泰德洛對任何認(rèn)為庫克時代已結(jié)束的觀點給出了令人信服的反駁。

蘋果如今的競爭環(huán)境。“有兩件事情正在同步發(fā)展。一是人工智能,它比互聯(lián)網(wǎng)重要得多;二是硬件的發(fā)展。這里存在一個‘足夠好’的問題:對大多數(shù)用戶來說,手機(jī)已經(jīng)足夠好了。我是一個重度手機(jī)用戶,我的iPhone都用了好幾年了,因為沒有令人信服的升級理由。這兩個因素的結(jié)合讓蘋果的環(huán)境更具挑戰(zhàn)性?!?/p>

與此同時,顧問們也看到了蘋果暫時的優(yōu)勢?!疤O果不像谷歌那樣面臨來自人工智能的生存威脅。蘋果依然擁有自家平臺——我仍然通過蘋果手機(jī)來使用 ChatGPT。在這種交互中,蘋果的收入并未受損。因此,蘋果的收入來源實際上決定了其并不需要快速邁入[人工智能領(lǐng)域]?!?/p>

“別忘了,蘋果在新技術(shù)和新產(chǎn)品上市方面向來都不做首發(fā)。雖然蘋果被認(rèn)為是世界上最具創(chuàng)新性的公司,但在很大程度上,公司會選取一個已被驗證的概念,然后以極具創(chuàng)造力且富有美感的方式來運用。”

不過,人們已經(jīng)等很久了?!叭绻O果在未來12個月內(nèi)未能推出一個真正可用的基礎(chǔ)助手來取代Siri,我會感到震驚。”

庫克會考慮在什么時候卸任?“這個問題確實直擊要害。如果是兩年后,屆時有合適的外部人選嗎?有從外部回來的‘回歸者’嗎?”

“有鑒于蘋果在外部人士方面的文化歷史,蘋果不大可能外求。[在史蒂夫?喬布斯1997年回歸之前,]蘋果差點斷送在外部人士手中,這幾乎成為了蘋果以往鑒來的典型案例。我們不斷聽到消息稱,庫克考慮在68到70歲[也就是從現(xiàn)在起3到5年后]卸任。他覺得在人工智能方面還有一些未完成的事情?!?/p>

“我認(rèn)為蒂姆在70歲之前會卸任。說實話,我覺得他累了。這段旅程令其精疲力盡,他很了不起,但我確實感覺到他的勁頭有所變化?!?/p>

什么樣的高管能成為庫克的接班人?“人們普遍認(rèn)為,蘋果確實需要一位有產(chǎn)品遠(yuǎn)見的人,而不是像庫克那樣的運營天才。我認(rèn)為,在關(guān)稅和供應(yīng)鏈問題得到解決之前,蘋果可能確實需要庫克掌舵,因為這對蘋果來說并不是什么小事?!?/p>

庫克的主要候選接班人都有誰?“首當(dāng)其沖的是約翰?特納斯和克雷格?費德里吉?!碧丶{斯是硬件工程高級副總裁,費德里吉是軟件工程高級副總裁?!安贿^考慮到時間線問題,[蘋果]仍有可能做出不少調(diào)整,因此繼任者也可能另有他人。”

“在蘋果這樣為數(shù)不多的幾家公司中,擔(dān)任其首席執(zhí)行官真的不亞于擔(dān)任國家總統(tǒng)。這樣的公司可能有十幾家。盡管聽起來有點顛覆傳統(tǒng),但在某種程度上,對于這些公司來說,有效地經(jīng)營公司只是首席執(zhí)行官的次要職責(zé)?!?/p>

總之,如何整體評價蒂姆?庫克?為此,我們請教了商業(yè)歷史學(xué)家、哈佛商學(xué)院名譽(yù)教授理查德?泰德洛。像所有優(yōu)秀的教授一樣,他會先提問題。他首先提出了有關(guān)蘋果的五個關(guān)鍵問題:客戶對公司感到滿意嗎?公司能后來居上嗎?公司有強(qiáng)大的企業(yè)文化嗎?公司愿意承認(rèn)錯誤嗎?公司有 “災(zāi)難想象力”,也就是意識到事情可能會變得非常糟糕嗎?他堅定地對所有問題都給出了肯定的答案。當(dāng)?shù)弥患胰A爾街研究公司稱庫克應(yīng)該辭職時,泰德洛提到了沃倫?巴菲特5月邀請庫克參加伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)年度股東大會一事。巴菲特在大會上說:“有點羞于啟齒的是,蒂姆?庫克為伯克希爾賺的錢比我為伯克希爾賺的多得多?!碧┑侣鍐柕溃骸叭绻厦孢@家華爾街公司打電話問巴菲特,‘沃倫,你認(rèn)為蒂姆?庫克現(xiàn)在該走人了嗎’,你覺得沃倫會怎么說?”

泰德洛的終極問題是:“如果你現(xiàn)在可以選擇商業(yè)史上的任何一位高管來擔(dān)任蘋果的首席執(zhí)行官,從約翰?雅各布?阿斯特到約翰?洛克菲勒,再到老湯姆?沃森、安迪?格魯夫和蒂姆?庫克,你會選誰?這實際上并不是什么難題?!?/p>

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

蘋果首席執(zhí)行官蒂姆?庫克該走人了嗎?過去幾周發(fā)生的事情可能會讓人們產(chǎn)生這種想法。然而,研究首席執(zhí)行官繼任問題的頂尖專家建議要冷靜處理,并從大局出發(fā)。這一點說明,庫克或?qū)⒃谖磥頂?shù)年內(nèi)繼續(xù)擔(dān)任公司首席執(zhí)行官,以及此舉甚至可能是蘋果的最佳選擇。近期傳出了多個令人沮喪的消息:一位高級人工智能研究員離職,而就在數(shù)周后,一位蘋果人工智能高管轉(zhuǎn)投Meta。這些消息尤其令人痛心,因為人們普遍認(rèn)為蘋果在人工智能這個全球最熱門的技術(shù)領(lǐng)域處于落后地位。Wedbush公司分析師丹?艾夫斯表示,上個月蘋果的年度全球開發(fā)者大會“令人昏昏欲睡”,而蘋果通常會在這個場合推出令人驚嘆的新產(chǎn)品或服務(wù)。在微軟和Alphabet公司股價創(chuàng)下新高之際,蘋果今年的股價卻下跌了16%。

難怪華爾街研究公司Lightshed認(rèn)為庫克不適合繼續(xù)執(zhí)掌蘋果。該公司寫道,蘋果 “現(xiàn)在需要一位專注于產(chǎn)品的首席執(zhí)行官,而不是專注于物流的首席執(zhí)行官。人工智能不是蘋果隨便‘動動手指’就能搞定的事情。在人工智能領(lǐng)域落后可能會從根本上改變公司的長期發(fā)展軌跡和增長能力?!?/p>

按照早些時候的標(biāo)準(zhǔn),庫克無論如何都該離職了。到8月,他的首席執(zhí)行官任期將達(dá)到14年,而且到11月將迎來65歲的生日。不過,65歲在如今已不算什么特別的年齡,而且沒有哪個董事會會急于解雇像他這樣的首席執(zhí)行官,因為他創(chuàng)造的股東價值遠(yuǎn)高于其傳奇般的前任史蒂夫?喬布斯。至少從理論上講,庫克和董事會有很大的選擇空間。

那么庫克和董事會應(yīng)該怎么做?為了得到權(quán)威答案,《財富》邀請了三位杰出的高管獵頭專家,他們每個人都曾為數(shù)十家大型公司的董事會提供過繼任管理方面的咨詢。為了確保他們說出真實想法,我們同意了其匿名要求。以下是他們看法的匯總,以及杰出的商業(yè)歷史學(xué)家理查德?泰德洛的最終觀點。泰德洛對任何認(rèn)為庫克時代已結(jié)束的觀點給出了令人信服的反駁。

蘋果如今的競爭環(huán)境?!坝袃杉虑檎谕桨l(fā)展。一是人工智能,它比互聯(lián)網(wǎng)重要得多;二是硬件的發(fā)展。這里存在一個‘足夠好’的問題:對大多數(shù)用戶來說,手機(jī)已經(jīng)足夠好了。我是一個重度手機(jī)用戶,我的iPhone都用了好幾年了,因為沒有令人信服的升級理由。這兩個因素的結(jié)合讓蘋果的環(huán)境更具挑戰(zhàn)性?!?/p>

與此同時,顧問們也看到了蘋果暫時的優(yōu)勢?!疤O果不像谷歌那樣面臨來自人工智能的生存威脅。蘋果依然擁有自家平臺——我仍然通過蘋果手機(jī)來使用 ChatGPT。在這種交互中,蘋果的收入并未受損。因此,蘋果的收入來源實際上決定了其并不需要快速邁入[人工智能領(lǐng)域]?!?/p>

“別忘了,蘋果在新技術(shù)和新產(chǎn)品上市方面向來都不做首發(fā)。雖然蘋果被認(rèn)為是世界上最具創(chuàng)新性的公司,但在很大程度上,公司會選取一個已被驗證的概念,然后以極具創(chuàng)造力且富有美感的方式來運用?!?/p>

不過,人們已經(jīng)等很久了?!叭绻O果在未來12個月內(nèi)未能推出一個真正可用的基礎(chǔ)助手來取代Siri,我會感到震驚?!?/p>

庫克會考慮在什么時候卸任?“這個問題確實直擊要害。如果是兩年后,屆時有合適的外部人選嗎?有從外部回來的‘回歸者’嗎?”

“有鑒于蘋果在外部人士方面的文化歷史,蘋果不大可能外求。[在史蒂夫?喬布斯1997年回歸之前,]蘋果差點斷送在外部人士手中,這幾乎成為了蘋果以往鑒來的典型案例。我們不斷聽到消息稱,庫克考慮在68到70歲[也就是從現(xiàn)在起3到5年后]卸任。他覺得在人工智能方面還有一些未完成的事情?!?/p>

“我認(rèn)為蒂姆在70歲之前會卸任。說實話,我覺得他累了。這段旅程令其精疲力盡,他很了不起,但我確實感覺到他的勁頭有所變化?!?/p>

什么樣的高管能成為庫克的接班人?“人們普遍認(rèn)為,蘋果確實需要一位有產(chǎn)品遠(yuǎn)見的人,而不是像庫克那樣的運營天才。我認(rèn)為,在關(guān)稅和供應(yīng)鏈問題得到解決之前,蘋果可能確實需要庫克掌舵,因為這對蘋果來說并不是什么小事?!?/p>

庫克的主要候選接班人都有誰?“首當(dāng)其沖的是約翰?特納斯和克雷格?費德里吉。”特納斯是硬件工程高級副總裁,費德里吉是軟件工程高級副總裁?!安贿^考慮到時間線問題,[蘋果]仍有可能做出不少調(diào)整,因此繼任者也可能另有他人?!?/p>

“在蘋果這樣為數(shù)不多的幾家公司中,擔(dān)任其首席執(zhí)行官真的不亞于擔(dān)任國家總統(tǒng)。這樣的公司可能有十幾家。盡管聽起來有點顛覆傳統(tǒng),但在某種程度上,對于這些公司來說,有效地經(jīng)營公司只是首席執(zhí)行官的次要職責(zé)?!?/p>

總之,如何整體評價蒂姆?庫克?為此,我們請教了商業(yè)歷史學(xué)家、哈佛商學(xué)院名譽(yù)教授理查德?泰德洛。像所有優(yōu)秀的教授一樣,他會先提問題。他首先提出了有關(guān)蘋果的五個關(guān)鍵問題:客戶對公司感到滿意嗎?公司能后來居上嗎?公司有強(qiáng)大的企業(yè)文化嗎?公司愿意承認(rèn)錯誤嗎?公司有 “災(zāi)難想象力”,也就是意識到事情可能會變得非常糟糕嗎?他堅定地對所有問題都給出了肯定的答案。當(dāng)?shù)弥患胰A爾街研究公司稱庫克應(yīng)該辭職時,泰德洛提到了沃倫?巴菲特5月邀請庫克參加伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)年度股東大會一事。巴菲特在大會上說:“有點羞于啟齒的是,蒂姆?庫克為伯克希爾賺的錢比我為伯克希爾賺的多得多?!碧┑侣鍐柕溃骸叭绻厦孢@家華爾街公司打電話問巴菲特,‘沃倫,你認(rèn)為蒂姆?庫克現(xiàn)在該走人了嗎’,你覺得沃倫會怎么說?”

泰德洛的終極問題是:“如果你現(xiàn)在可以選擇商業(yè)史上的任何一位高管來擔(dān)任蘋果的首席執(zhí)行官,從約翰?雅各布?阿斯特到約翰?洛克菲勒,再到老湯姆?沃森、安迪?格魯夫和蒂姆?庫克,你會選誰?這實際上并不是什么難題?!?/p>

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

Is it time for Apple CEO Tim Cook to clean out his office? You might think so after the past few weeks. But top experts on CEO successions counsel settling down and looking at the big picture. It shows why Cook might remain CEO for years and why that might even be the best course for Apple. The recent depressing news included a top Apple AI executive’s defection to Meta just weeks after another high-level AI researcher had left—especially painful because Apple is widely seen as a laggard in the world’s hottest technology, AI. Last month Apple’s annual Worldwide Developer Conference, often a scene of breathtaking new products or services, was “a snoozer,” said Wedbush analyst Dan Ives. While stocks of Microsoft and Alphabet are hitting new highs, Apple is down 16% this year.

Little wonder that a Wall Street research firm, Lightshed, concluded Cook is no longer the right boss for Apple. The company “now needs a product-focused CEO, not one centered on logistics,” the firm wrote. “AI is not something that Apple can merely ‘pull the string’ on. Missing on AI could fundamentally alter the company’s long-term trajectory and ability to grow at all.”

By earlier standards, Cook would have been on his way out in any case. In August he will have been CEO for 14 years, and in November he turns 65. But 65 is nothing special anymore, and no board of directors will hurry to dispatch a CEO who created far more shareholder value than his legendary predecessor, Steve Jobs, ever did. At least in theory, the options for Cook and the board are wide open.

So what should Cook and the board do? To get an authoritative answer, Fortune recruited three eminent executive search experts, each of whom has counseled scores of major boards on managing successions. We agreed to withhold their names so that they could speak completely candidly. Here are their combined thoughts—as well as the final word from preeminent business historian Richard Tedlow, who gives a compelling comeback to anyone who thinks Cook’s time is up.

Apple’s competitive environment now. “Two things are happening in parallel. One is AI, which is a much bigger deal than the internet was. The second thing is the evolution of the hardware. There’s a ‘good enough’ problem. For most users, the phones are good enough. I’m a power phone user, and I use a several-year-old iPhone because there’s no compelling reason to upgrade. Those two things in combination make for a more challenging environment for Apple.”

At the same time, the consultants see a temporary upside for Apple. “They don’t have the existential threat that Google has from AI. Apple still has the platform—I’m still using my Apple phone to reference ChatGPT. They’re not losing revenue in that exchange. So if you look at where they make money, they actually don’t need a quick entry [into AI].”

“Remember, Apple has never been first to market with anything. They’re considered to be the most innovative company in the world, but they have largely taken a concept that’s been proven and made it applicable for use in ways that are highly innovative and esthetically appealing.”

Still, the clock has been ticking for a while. “I would be shocked if within the next 12 months they do not release a truly functioning baseline agent to replace Siri.”

When might Cook be thinking of stepping down? “That’s really the foundational question. If it’s two years, are there any outsiders who could plausibly come in? Are there any boomerang people who could come back from outside of Apple?”

“Apple is less likely to go outside because of the cultural history of outsiders at Apple. It’s almost revered, the story of how outsiders almost killed Apple [before Steve Jobs returned in 1997]. We hear pretty consistently that Cook is thinking of an age 68 to 70 timeline [which would be three to five years from now.] He feels that, with AI, there’s some unfinished business.”

“I don’t think Tim will be CEO until he’s 70. I think he’s tired, honestly. It’s been an exhausting journey, and he’s amazing, but I do sense a different energy.”

What kind of executive will Cook’s successor be? “The common wisdom is that they really need a product visionary, as opposed to the operational genius that he was. I would argue that until the tariff and supply chain issues get resolved, they probably do need him at the helm because that is a non-trivial issue for them.”

Who are the leading candidates to succeed Cook? “The most obvious are John [Ternus] and Craig [Federighi].” Ternus is senior vice president hardware engineering. Federighi is senior vice president software engineering. “But given the timeline, [the company] could still make quite a few changes, and it could be somebody quite different.”

“There are a few companies where being a CEO is really like being the president of a country, and Apple is one of those. There are maybe a dozen. It sounds kind of heretical to say, but to some degree, the smaller part of the job is effectively operating the company.”

Bottom line, what is the big-picture assessment of Tim Cook? For this we turn to a business historian, Richard Tedlow, an emeritus professor at the Harvard Business School. Like any good professor, he asks questions. He starts by asking five crucial questions about Apple: Does it satisfy customers? Does it come from behind? Does it have a powerful corporate culture? Is it willing to admit mistakes? Does it have “an imagination of disaster,” a realization that things could go badly wrong? Approvingly, he answers Yes to all. Told that a Wall Street research firm has said Cook should resign, Tedlow notes that Warren Buffett invited Cook to Berkshire Hathaway’s annual meeting in May and said, “I’m somewhat embarrassed to say that Tim Cook has made Berkshire a lot more money than I’ve ever made [for] Berkshire Hathaway.” Tedlow asks, “If that Wall Street firm called Buffett and said, ‘Warren, do you think it’s time to get rid of Tim Cook,’ what do you think Warren would say?”

Tedlow’s ultimate query: “If you could choose anybody to be the CEO of Apple right now—anybody in the whole history of business, from John Jacob Astor to John D. Rockefeller to Tom Watson Sr. to Andy Grove to Tim Cook—whom would you choose? This is actually not a difficult question.”

財富中文網(wǎng)所刊載內(nèi)容之知識產(chǎn)權(quán)為財富媒體知識產(chǎn)權(quán)有限公司及/或相關(guān)權(quán)利人專屬所有或持有。未經(jīng)許可,禁止進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)載、摘編、復(fù)制及建立鏡像等任何使用。
0條Plus
精彩評論
評論

撰寫或查看更多評論

請打開財富Plus APP

前往打開
熱讀文章
恩施市| 泗洪县| 蛟河市| 集安市| 青河县| 丹寨县| 宁河县| 东城区| 嘉鱼县| 江阴市| 石首市| 青神县| 荣成市| 桦甸市| 应城市| 宜兰县| 张家界市| 太保市| 嘉黎县| 和静县| 博乐市| 乐陵市| 潍坊市| 杭锦后旗| 礼泉县| 南阳市| 澜沧| 龙泉市| 邮箱| 石门县| 疏附县| 蒙自县| 招远市| 蒲江县| 华容县| 南江县| 平泉县| 那曲县| 青冈县| 雅安市| 施甸县|