
在談到蒂姆?庫(kù)克評(píng)價(jià)問(wèn)題上,人們普遍認(rèn)為,他續(xù)寫(xiě)了史蒂夫·喬布斯締造的奇跡,是蘋(píng)果歷史上又一位具有傳奇色彩的CEO。但是從最近幾個(gè)月特別是最近幾天的情況看,他的歷史地位似乎有了一絲松動(dòng)的危險(xiǎn)。就在近日,在蘋(píng)果任職長(zhǎng)達(dá)27年的首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官杰夫?威廉姆斯宣布他將于今年年底退休。而就在一天前,蘋(píng)果AI業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人龐若鳴也離職加入Meta。幾周前,蘋(píng)果的另一位高級(jí)別的AI研究員湯姆?岡特也離職出走。給人的感覺(jué)仿佛是末日將至,蘋(píng)果的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層正在爭(zhēng)相跳船逃生。
從更宏觀的層面來(lái)看,過(guò)去一年里,蘋(píng)果公司股價(jià)下跌了7.2%,而同期標(biāo)普500指數(shù)上漲6.5%,納斯達(dá)克綜指更是上漲了12.9%。
這些事件也從一個(gè)側(cè)面暴露出了蘋(píng)果公司最令人擔(dān)憂的短板。特別是在把AI與產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)進(jìn)行整合方面,蘋(píng)果顯然已嚴(yán)重落后于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。去年,蘋(píng)果公司大張旗鼓地出了“蘋(píng)果智能”,并稱(chēng)它是全球最懂用戶(hù)的蘋(píng)果才能打造出的AI。但是實(shí)際上,“蘋(píng)果智能”一經(jīng)推出就沒(méi)了下文,蘋(píng)果反而與OpenAI建立了合作關(guān)系,讓后者承擔(dān)其虛擬助手Siri的部分功能。另有報(bào)道稱(chēng),蘋(píng)果還考慮與Anthropic公司合作,甚至還考慮過(guò)跟另一家AI公司Perplexity AI合作,或者干脆將其收購(gòu)。
對(duì)于蘋(píng)果這種體量和地位的公司而言,如今在AI領(lǐng)域落于人后,其嚴(yán)重性堪比2000 年時(shí)在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上落后于對(duì)手。AI是一門(mén)通用性技術(shù),這種規(guī)模的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是不經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)的。這種級(jí)別的創(chuàng)新,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)算一個(gè),計(jì)算機(jī)和電力也算一個(gè)。它們都改變了世界,也徹底重塑了所有企業(yè)的商業(yè)邏輯和商業(yè)格局。
考慮到這一點(diǎn),我們便會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),蒂姆?庫(kù)克或許能算得上2011年以來(lái),全世界最出色的CEO之一,但是到了AI時(shí)代,他就未必是蘋(píng)果最佳的CEO人選了。
在此,我們不妨回顧一下庫(kù)克就任CEO以來(lái),幫助蘋(píng)果取得了哪些驚人成就。在史蒂夫·喬布斯指定他接班時(shí),蘋(píng)果的市值約為 3000 億美元。而現(xiàn)在,這一數(shù)字已超過(guò) 3.1萬(wàn)億美元。也就是說(shuō),在14年的時(shí)間里,蘋(píng)果公司的復(fù)合年增長(zhǎng)率高達(dá)18.4%。大概很少有人意識(shí)到,庫(kù)克為股東創(chuàng)造的財(cái)富要遠(yuǎn)超喬布斯。
但是,現(xiàn)在讓我們更仔細(xì)地審視一番。研究機(jī)構(gòu)MoffettNathanson的創(chuàng)始人克雷格?莫菲特是極少數(shù)對(duì)蘋(píng)果股票給出了“賣(mài)出”評(píng)級(jí)的華爾街分析師之一。他也很欽佩庫(kù)克。他表示:“以任何常規(guī)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量,庫(kù)克的任期都取得了極其輝煌的成就,” 隨后他分析了庫(kù)克的這種成功是如何實(shí)現(xiàn)的。“但是在過(guò)去十年里,除了無(wú)線耳機(jī)可能勉強(qiáng)算得上,他們沒(méi)有推出過(guò)任何一款重大創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品。在蒂姆·庫(kù)克的任期內(nèi),蘋(píng)果在流程創(chuàng)新上的投入遠(yuǎn)多于產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新?!?/p>
莫菲特表示,沒(méi)人能否認(rèn)蒂姆·庫(kù)克的成就?!暗瞧叫亩?,這些成就的取得,主要得益于他多年以前就制定好的產(chǎn)品戰(zhàn)略和執(zhí)行戰(zhàn)略?!?/p>
在當(dāng)下看來(lái),產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新的問(wèn)題顯得尤為重要,因?yàn)槟壳皼](méi)人說(shuō)得清,哪些產(chǎn)品才能順應(yīng)AI革命的大潮。蘋(píng)果長(zhǎng)期依賴(lài)的設(shè)計(jì)天才喬尼?艾維已于2019年離職,現(xiàn)在他正在與OpenAI合作。外界對(duì)此有諸多猜測(cè),很多人認(rèn)為他正在研發(fā)一款新的AI設(shè)備,比如AI吊墜或者AI智能筆等等。不過(guò)即便蘋(píng)果內(nèi)部也有類(lèi)似項(xiàng)目在推進(jìn),相關(guān)信息也會(huì)被嚴(yán)格保密。
在蘋(píng)果近年來(lái)推出的一系列新產(chǎn)品中,蘋(píng)果Vision Pro頭顯小眾而高端,HomePod和 HomePod mini智能音箱僅取得了非常有限的成功。萬(wàn)一隨著人類(lèi)進(jìn)入AI時(shí)代,人們的生活不用再?lài)@著手機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)了,那么蘋(píng)果就很有可能進(jìn)入困境。莫菲特表示:“投資者心里都縈繞著一個(gè)問(wèn)題,這個(gè)問(wèn)題正日益引起人們的不安——蘋(píng)果是否對(duì)這種顛覆性變革毫無(wú)準(zhǔn)備?”
當(dāng)然,蒂姆·庫(kù)克也仍然有可能給我們帶來(lái)新的驚喜。畢竟,蘋(píng)果一向以保密工作著稱(chēng)。或許某一天,它會(huì)突然發(fā)布一款令人驚嘆的新設(shè)備或者新服務(wù),也有可能收購(gòu)一家大型AI公司,或者與之建立合作,從而改變整個(gè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局。如果這些情況真的發(fā)生了,那么庫(kù)克仍能鞏固自己作為史上最偉大CEO之一的地位。不過(guò)目前看來(lái),短期內(nèi)發(fā)生這種情況的可能性不算大??傊?,蘋(píng)果公司的董事會(huì)必須記住,AI時(shí)代孕育著新機(jī)會(huì),也帶來(lái)了新風(fēng)險(xiǎn),而沒(méi)有一個(gè)CEO能夠適應(yīng)所有的時(shí)代。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
在談到蒂姆?庫(kù)克評(píng)價(jià)問(wèn)題上,人們普遍認(rèn)為,他續(xù)寫(xiě)了史蒂夫·喬布斯締造的奇跡,是蘋(píng)果歷史上又一位具有傳奇色彩的CEO。但是從最近幾個(gè)月特別是最近幾天的情況看,他的歷史地位似乎有了一絲松動(dòng)的危險(xiǎn)。就在近日,在蘋(píng)果任職長(zhǎng)達(dá)27年的首席運(yùn)營(yíng)官杰夫?威廉姆斯宣布他將于今年年底退休。而就在一天前,蘋(píng)果AI業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人龐若鳴也離職加入Meta。幾周前,蘋(píng)果的另一位高級(jí)別的AI研究員湯姆?岡特也離職出走。給人的感覺(jué)仿佛是末日將至,蘋(píng)果的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)層正在爭(zhēng)相跳船逃生。
從更宏觀的層面來(lái)看,過(guò)去一年里,蘋(píng)果公司股價(jià)下跌了7.2%,而同期標(biāo)普500指數(shù)上漲6.5%,納斯達(dá)克綜指更是上漲了12.9%。
這些事件也從一個(gè)側(cè)面暴露出了蘋(píng)果公司最令人擔(dān)憂的短板。特別是在把AI與產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)進(jìn)行整合方面,蘋(píng)果顯然已嚴(yán)重落后于競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手。去年,蘋(píng)果公司大張旗鼓地出了“蘋(píng)果智能”,并稱(chēng)它是全球最懂用戶(hù)的蘋(píng)果才能打造出的AI。但是實(shí)際上,“蘋(píng)果智能”一經(jīng)推出就沒(méi)了下文,蘋(píng)果反而與OpenAI建立了合作關(guān)系,讓后者承擔(dān)其虛擬助手Siri的部分功能。另有報(bào)道稱(chēng),蘋(píng)果還考慮與Anthropic公司合作,甚至還考慮過(guò)跟另一家AI公司Perplexity AI合作,或者干脆將其收購(gòu)。
對(duì)于蘋(píng)果這種體量和地位的公司而言,如今在AI領(lǐng)域落于人后,其嚴(yán)重性堪比2000 年時(shí)在互聯(lián)網(wǎng)上落后于對(duì)手。AI是一門(mén)通用性技術(shù),這種規(guī)模的技術(shù)創(chuàng)新是不經(jīng)常出現(xiàn)的。這種級(jí)別的創(chuàng)新,互聯(lián)網(wǎng)算一個(gè),計(jì)算機(jī)和電力也算一個(gè)。它們都改變了世界,也徹底重塑了所有企業(yè)的商業(yè)邏輯和商業(yè)格局。
考慮到這一點(diǎn),我們便會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn),蒂姆?庫(kù)克或許能算得上2011年以來(lái),全世界最出色的CEO之一,但是到了AI時(shí)代,他就未必是蘋(píng)果最佳的CEO人選了。
在此,我們不妨回顧一下庫(kù)克就任CEO以來(lái),幫助蘋(píng)果取得了哪些驚人成就。在史蒂夫·喬布斯指定他接班時(shí),蘋(píng)果的市值約為 3000 億美元。而現(xiàn)在,這一數(shù)字已超過(guò) 3.1萬(wàn)億美元。也就是說(shuō),在14年的時(shí)間里,蘋(píng)果公司的復(fù)合年增長(zhǎng)率高達(dá)18.4%。大概很少有人意識(shí)到,庫(kù)克為股東創(chuàng)造的財(cái)富要遠(yuǎn)超喬布斯。
但是,現(xiàn)在讓我們更仔細(xì)地審視一番。研究機(jī)構(gòu)MoffettNathanson的創(chuàng)始人克雷格?莫菲特是極少數(shù)對(duì)蘋(píng)果股票給出了“賣(mài)出”評(píng)級(jí)的華爾街分析師之一。他也很欽佩庫(kù)克。他表示:“以任何常規(guī)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量,庫(kù)克的任期都取得了極其輝煌的成就,” 隨后他分析了庫(kù)克的這種成功是如何實(shí)現(xiàn)的?!暗窃谶^(guò)去十年里,除了無(wú)線耳機(jī)可能勉強(qiáng)算得上,他們沒(méi)有推出過(guò)任何一款重大創(chuàng)新產(chǎn)品。在蒂姆·庫(kù)克的任期內(nèi),蘋(píng)果在流程創(chuàng)新上的投入遠(yuǎn)多于產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新。”
莫菲特表示,沒(méi)人能否認(rèn)蒂姆·庫(kù)克的成就。“但是平心而論,這些成就的取得,主要得益于他多年以前就制定好的產(chǎn)品戰(zhàn)略和執(zhí)行戰(zhàn)略。”
在當(dāng)下看來(lái),產(chǎn)品創(chuàng)新的問(wèn)題顯得尤為重要,因?yàn)槟壳皼](méi)人說(shuō)得清,哪些產(chǎn)品才能順應(yīng)AI革命的大潮。蘋(píng)果長(zhǎng)期依賴(lài)的設(shè)計(jì)天才喬尼?艾維已于2019年離職,現(xiàn)在他正在與OpenAI合作。外界對(duì)此有諸多猜測(cè),很多人認(rèn)為他正在研發(fā)一款新的AI設(shè)備,比如AI吊墜或者AI智能筆等等。不過(guò)即便蘋(píng)果內(nèi)部也有類(lèi)似項(xiàng)目在推進(jìn),相關(guān)信息也會(huì)被嚴(yán)格保密。
在蘋(píng)果近年來(lái)推出的一系列新產(chǎn)品中,蘋(píng)果Vision Pro頭顯小眾而高端,HomePod和 HomePod mini智能音箱僅取得了非常有限的成功。萬(wàn)一隨著人類(lèi)進(jìn)入AI時(shí)代,人們的生活不用再?lài)@著手機(jī)轉(zhuǎn)了,那么蘋(píng)果就很有可能進(jìn)入困境。莫菲特表示:“投資者心里都縈繞著一個(gè)問(wèn)題,這個(gè)問(wèn)題正日益引起人們的不安——蘋(píng)果是否對(duì)這種顛覆性變革毫無(wú)準(zhǔn)備?”
當(dāng)然,蒂姆·庫(kù)克也仍然有可能給我們帶來(lái)新的驚喜。畢竟,蘋(píng)果一向以保密工作著稱(chēng)?;蛟S某一天,它會(huì)突然發(fā)布一款令人驚嘆的新設(shè)備或者新服務(wù),也有可能收購(gòu)一家大型AI公司,或者與之建立合作,從而改變整個(gè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局。如果這些情況真的發(fā)生了,那么庫(kù)克仍能鞏固自己作為史上最偉大CEO之一的地位。不過(guò)目前看來(lái),短期內(nèi)發(fā)生這種情況的可能性不算大??傊?,蘋(píng)果公司的董事會(huì)必須記住,AI時(shí)代孕育著新機(jī)會(huì),也帶來(lái)了新風(fēng)險(xiǎn),而沒(méi)有一個(gè)CEO能夠適應(yīng)所有的時(shí)代。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))
譯者:樸成奎
It seems impossible that Tim Cook’s legacy as Apple’s spectacularly successful CEO could be in jeopardy. But in recent months, and especially in recent days, the impossible has become at least conceivable. The latest tremors came when Apple announced chief operating officer Jeff Williams would retire by yearend after 27 years. Just a day before, the company’s top AI executive, Ruoming Pang, had left to join Meta, and weeks earlier, another high-level AI researcher, Tom Gunter, had also left. The image of a leadership exodus was forming.
More broadly, Apple stock is down 7.2% over the past year, while the S&P is up 6.5% and the Nasdaq is up 12.9%.
Those events brought some of Apple’s most worrisome weaknesses into the forefront. Above all: an apparent serious lag behind competitors incorporating AI into products and services. Last year, with Hollywood fanfare, the company introduced Apple Intelligence, a version of AI that only Apple, creator of the world’s most user-friendly products and services, could possibly create. But it isn’t working out that way. Playing down Apple Intelligence so far, the company has a partnership with OpenAI for some chores performed by Apple’s virtual assistant, Siri, and it has reportedly considered a partnership with Anthropic and partnering with or buying Perplexity AI.
For a company of Apple’s scale and stature, lagging behind its major competitors on AI is like lagging behind the competition on the internet in 2000. AI is a general-purpose technology, and those things don’t come along very often. The internet was one. So were digital computing and electricity. They change the world, and they revolutionize the business landscape for every company.
With that in mind, it becomes clear how Tim Cook could be one of the all-time greatest CEOs from 2011 to now yet might not be optimal for the AI era.
As background, remember just how staggeringly successful Apple has been under Cook. When Steve Jobs made him CEO, the company was worth about $300 billion. Now it’s worth $3.2 trillion—a remarkable compound annual growth rate of 18.4% over 14 years. Few people realize that Cook has created far more shareholder wealth than Jobs did.
But now look closer. Craig Moffett, a founder of the MoffettNathanson research firm, is one of the extremely few Wall Street analysts who have a Sell recommendation on Apple stock. He is also a Cook admirer. “By any normal metrics he has had a wildly, wildly successful tenure,” Moffett says. But then he examines how that success has been achieved. “They haven’t produced a major new product outside of possibly the earbuds in a decade,” he says. “Apple has done far more to innovate process than it has product over Tim Cook’s tenure.”
No one can deny Cook’s record, Moffett says, “but to be fair, it has been by exquisitely executing strategies and manufacturing products that were set in motion years before.”
The issue of product innovation becomes especially important now because it isn’t yet clear which products will be right for the AI revolution. Jony Ive, Apple’s longtime design genius, left the company in 2019 and is now working with OpenAI; rampant speculation has him creating a new device for AI, maybe a pendant or a pen. If any such projects are underway at Apple, they are deeply hidden.
Among known products, Apple’s Vision Pro goggles are a high-end niche item, and its HomePod and HomePod mini smart speakers have been modest successes. But if smartphones aren’t at the center of life in the AI world, Apple could be hurting. “There is this nagging question among investors,” Moffett says, “which is increasingly causing disquiet that Apple is unprepared for something that transformational.”
Cook could still surprise us. After all, Apple is famously secretive. Maybe it will suddenly reveal a stunning new device or service. Maybe it will buy a major AI company or partner with one, changing the whole competitive landscape. If that happens and succeeds, Cook could cement a position as one of the all-time great CEOs. But if none of those events happen sometime soon—they seem unlikely—then the Apple board of directors must remember that no CEO is right for all seasons, and the advent of AI heralds a ne