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As China continues to outperform the United States in manufacturing capabilities, tariffs may not be the best strategy for America to boost factory productivity. Goldman Sachs analysts suggest that the U.S. should instead look to artificial intelligence (AI) and automation to gain an edge in manufacturing.

President Donald Trump has aimed to bring factory jobs back to American shores by imposing steep tariffs on U.S. manufacturing rivals. However, analysts stated in a note published on Thursday that such tariffs can only incentivize reshoring to a limited extent. Instead, manufacturers should regard automation and the increasingly accessible artificial intelligence as their best opportunity to boost domestic manufacturing.

"A pickup in the pace of innovation—potentially driven by recent advances in robotics and generative AI—thus remains the most likely catalyst to reverse the long-term stagnation in manufacturing productivity," analyst Joseph Briggs and his colleagues wrote in the note.

As China leverages automation and cheaper labor to expand its export footprint, the Bank of America Institute has found growing evidence of a recent slowdown in U.S. manufacturing. This includes data from the U.S. Census Bureau showing that new orders for manufactured durable goods decreased by 6.3% in April. The Institute of Supply Management Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has also declined since March, further indicating a contraction.

According to Goldman Sachs, the U.S.’s productivity challenges are part of a broader manufacturing productivity slowdown that has been ongoing for the past two decades. This slowdown is attributed to a pullback in investment following the global financial crisis, as well as a deceleration in the technological advancements that burst forth in the early 2000s.

Trump’s tariff plans for China—though the president has touted a new trade deal, he has not disclosed the specifics—aim to help the U.S. reclaim manufacturing opportunities from its economic rival. However, the bank argued in its note that while tariffs make consumers’ lives more expensive, they are not a cure-all for manufacturers.

"Tariffs are unlikely to lead to significant reshoring because, for most products, production costs in other countries remain well below those in the U.S. (even after accounting for tariffs). Moreover, China is likely to continue growing its exports, supported by cost advantages and industrial policy," the note stated.

The Rise of Factory Automation

Instead, analyst Briggs said the U.S. should focus on another area where it is lagging: automation.

A report released earlier this month by the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) Henderson Institute shows that the U.S. has trailed other manufacturing powerhouses in implementing AI in factory operations. In BCG’s Global Manufacturing Survey of 1,000 manufacturers, only 46% of U.S. respondents reported multiple use cases of AI in their plants. This falls short of the global average of 62% and lags behind China’s 77%.

"This is one of the key technologies that I think could drive productivity growth in a cost-competitive way," Briggs told Fortune. "And we just haven’t seen this happen on a significant scale yet."

Briggs explained that the U.S. did not previously invest in factory automation due to a "hangover" from the global financial crisis. However, given the growing prevalence and thus affordability of automation and AI, the U.S. now has a real opportunity to prioritize factory technology upgrades.

Companies like MSP Manufacturing, which specializes in aviation precision parts, have already started to adapt. Johnny Goode, president and COO of MSP, recently discovered an AI-powered software that can program the machines used to build precision parts. This has reduced production time from an hour and a half to just seven minutes per part, plus an additional 15 minutes for human operators to refine the parts.

"I was amazed, thinking this is going to be a game-changer," Goode told Fortune’s Jeremy Kahn this week. "Going from 90 minutes to 22 minutes is a huge improvement, and we’ve seen even better results as we’ve become more proficient in using the software."

Ending the Manufacturing Slowdown

Goldman Sachs analysts acknowledged that while automation offers the greatest potential for growth in U.S. manufacturing productivity, it is unlikely to single-handedly solve the broader global manufacturing slowdown. Briggs described the slowdown as "historically unusual," with the maturation of the tech sector likely being the main cause. Any hope for a global uptick in productivity would depend on the mass advancement and adoption of AI and robotics on a large scale.

"The key factor that would drive a significant increase in manufacturing productivity and growth is a sharp acceleration in the pace of innovation," Briggs said. "However, this kind of inflection point in technological progress is very difficult to predict."

Technological advancements could bring a twofold benefit to domestic manufacturing productivity: driving factory investments and improving the technology installed in factories to automate tasks. However, with the specifics of future AI and automation applications still unclear, it is challenging to predict whether a reversal of the domestic manufacturing slowdown is truly feasible.

"We need to see tangible progress before we can have strong confidence that this dynamic will become a major driver," Briggs said.