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微軟與谷歌在開發(fā)者大會上的正面交鋒,兩家人工智能戰(zhàn)略截然相反

Jeremy Kahn
2025-05-24

其中一家公司還暴露出重大短板。

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圖片來源:JASON REDMOND/AFP via Getty Images; CAMILLE COHEN/AFP via Getty Images

本周,科技界兩大巨頭在相隔一天、相距750英里的兩地分別舉辦了面向開發(fā)者群體的大會。盡管微軟的Build大會和谷歌的I/O開發(fā)者大會均聚焦人工智能,但這兩場針鋒相對的盛會凸顯出,這兩家行業(yè)巨頭正通過截然不同的策略搶占市場。

這兩家公司均不遺余力地推進(jìn)人工智能編碼助手的發(fā)展,力求達(dá)成軟件自主構(gòu)建與測試的目標(biāo)——微軟宣布GitHub Copilot推出全新自主編碼功能,谷歌則首次推出Jules編碼助手。然而,除編碼助手外,雙方在重點(diǎn)布局方面的關(guān)鍵差異,折射出其戰(zhàn)略路徑的根本分歧。

微軟正努力說服企業(yè)構(gòu)建人工智能代理

在Build大會上,微軟發(fā)布的內(nèi)容更側(cè)重于助力企業(yè)客戶創(chuàng)建人工智能代理,并為其提供實(shí)現(xiàn)工作流自動化的有效工具。其宣傳內(nèi)容涵蓋如何讓代理調(diào)用工具、達(dá)成代理間協(xié)同合作,以及最為關(guān)鍵的——管控人工智能代理的數(shù)據(jù)訪問權(quán)限。這些功能對大型企業(yè)和政府機(jī)構(gòu)至關(guān)重要。

微軟人工智能安全主管內(nèi)塔·海比(Neta Haiby)在一次或許是無心之失中,凸顯了這一點(diǎn)。彼時(shí),一名支持巴勒斯坦的抗議者打斷了Build大會上關(guān)于人工智能時(shí)代安全最佳實(shí)踐的討論環(huán)節(jié),內(nèi)塔·海比誤將電腦屏幕共享至大會現(xiàn)場直播,從而展示出一條來自微軟云業(yè)務(wù)同事的Teams消息。在這條消息里,該云計(jì)算員工透露,使用微軟Azure云服務(wù)運(yùn)行諸多人工智能應(yīng)用的沃爾瑪,正打算采用微軟新推出的AI網(wǎng)關(guān)(此軟件層為生成式人工智能應(yīng)用增強(qiáng)安全性,并提供分析功能)以及全新Entra產(chǎn)品(人工智能代理的身份管理工具),且援引沃爾瑪一位人工智能工程師所言:“微軟在人工智能安全領(lǐng)域遠(yuǎn)超谷歌”。這一披露看似意外——沃爾瑪尚未公開宣布使用這些微軟服務(wù),卻巧妙地強(qiáng)化了微軟的營銷話術(shù)。若真是意外,對微軟而言無疑是意外之喜。

微軟所宣布的即便是更面向消費(fèi)者的功能,實(shí)則也瞄準(zhǔn)企業(yè)客戶。微軟首次推出了NLWeb協(xié)議,使得任何網(wǎng)站或應(yīng)用程序都能輕松部署聊天機(jī)器人,從而讓用戶能夠以自然語言查詢網(wǎng)站內(nèi)容。這固然能提升消費(fèi)者的購物與搜索體驗(yàn),但其初衷在于助力企業(yè)增加銷售額。

谷歌為消費(fèi)者和個(gè)人創(chuàng)作者而戰(zhàn)

這與谷歌在I/O開發(fā)者大會上公布的內(nèi)容形成強(qiáng)烈反差。谷歌宣布的重點(diǎn)幾乎完全聚焦于消費(fèi)者層面,而非大型組織,主要面向個(gè)人網(wǎng)絡(luò)用戶與內(nèi)容創(chuàng)作者。最重磅的消息是谷歌核心搜索產(chǎn)品的全面升級:新增多項(xiàng)人工智能概覽功能,可為用戶查詢提供精簡答案,同時(shí)推出“人工智能模式”,能帶來更原生的人工智能交互體驗(yàn),與用戶使用OpenAI的ChatGPT時(shí)所獲得的體驗(yàn)相似,該模式運(yùn)用了谷歌最為強(qiáng)大的人工智能模型。此外,谷歌還推出了能讓購物者在選購商品時(shí)虛擬試穿服裝的新功能。

谷歌發(fā)布的其他信息還包括新圖像、音頻和視頻生成式人工智能工具,這些工具不僅面向普通消費(fèi)者,也適用于社交媒體創(chuàng)作者。鑒于谷歌旗下?lián)碛杏凸埽╕ouTube),這也在情理之中,因?yàn)檫@些工具能讓用戶更便捷地生成吸引眼球的內(nèi)容。

當(dāng)然,還有一些關(guān)于代理人工智能功能的討論——谷歌將其稱為“水手計(jì)劃”——但這些代理旨在幫助消費(fèi)者處理具體事務(wù),比如購買體育賽事門票或購買雜貨。水手計(jì)劃旨在打造一款通用型個(gè)人助手,而非實(shí)現(xiàn)企業(yè)工作流程自動化。

在I/O開發(fā)者大會上,谷歌重點(diǎn)展示的唯一一款具有企業(yè)應(yīng)用價(jià)值的產(chǎn)品是Beam,這是一款能夠在視頻通話中以3D形式呈現(xiàn)人像的系統(tǒng)。許多公司可能會注冊使用Beam,認(rèn)為它有助于團(tuán)隊(duì)遠(yuǎn)程協(xié)作,甚至能提升虛擬銷售電話的效率,但它似乎難以成為一款能徹底革新業(yè)務(wù)的產(chǎn)品。

微軟需要技術(shù)發(fā)揮作用,而谷歌需要技術(shù)和新商業(yè)模式

Build大會與I/O開發(fā)者大會的另一大顯著差異在于:微軟推出的創(chuàng)新技術(shù)與其現(xiàn)有商業(yè)模式完美適配,而谷歌的多數(shù)發(fā)布內(nèi)容卻與自身商業(yè)模式顯得格格不入。

誠然,微軟也面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn):客戶可能認(rèn)為其推出的各類代理式人工智能產(chǎn)品和功能價(jià)值有限,不愿為微軟期望收取的高額許可費(fèi)買單。不過,一旦人工智能代理獲得市場認(rèn)可,它們只會進(jìn)一步鞏固微軟現(xiàn)有的云業(yè)務(wù)和基于訂閱的商業(yè)模式。

另一方面,谷歌推出人工智能功能無疑是一場豪賭,這可能會直接蠶食其25年以來賴以生存的基于廣告的商業(yè)模式。搜索業(yè)務(wù)占據(jù)谷歌收入的56%,也是其利潤的主要來源。如果像獨(dú)立研究表明的那樣,人工智能概覽功能導(dǎo)致用戶點(diǎn)擊鏈接的次數(shù)減少,或是人工智能模式提供的付費(fèi)鏈接數(shù)量銳減(目前這一情況似乎已然成真),那么谷歌如何維持營收便成了未知之?dāng)?shù)。

針對類似聊天機(jī)器人的界面以及通用型個(gè)人人工智能助手,存在諸多可構(gòu)想全新商業(yè)模式的方式。然而,谷歌尚未明晰其針對這些模式的具體規(guī)劃——在I/O開發(fā)者大會上聆聽谷歌高管發(fā)言時(shí),便能察覺到這家公司尚未真正找到答案。

至少其發(fā)布的圖像、視頻和音頻生成產(chǎn)品有助于為油管提供內(nèi)容支撐,油管仍擁有穩(wěn)健的廣告驅(qū)動型業(yè)務(wù)。然而,在諸多人工智能功能方面,谷歌目前正嘗試轉(zhuǎn)型,著力銷售高價(jià)訂閱服務(wù)。它已將每月19.99美元的AI Premium訂閱服務(wù)更名為Google AI Pro,并向這些訂閱用戶開放部分新功能。此外,谷歌還推出了面向高級用戶的Google AI Ultra訂閱服務(wù),每月費(fèi)用達(dá)250美元,這些用戶可享谷歌最先進(jìn)的人工智能功能,且使用量幾乎不受限制。

實(shí)在難以設(shè)想,谷歌能售出足夠多的此類訂閱服務(wù),以填補(bǔ)因推出人工智能搜索功能而可能帶來的廣告收入損失。實(shí)際上,Ultra級別的訂閱費(fèi)用如此高昂,難以稱得上是商業(yè)模式,或許僅能勉強(qiáng)覆蓋少量付費(fèi)用戶的成本。然而,對于谷歌這般規(guī)模的公司來說,這似乎并非一項(xiàng)嚴(yán)肅的業(yè)務(wù),充其量只是權(quán)宜之計(jì),處于過去谷歌與未來尚未明晰的谷歌之間的一種過渡形態(tài)。(毋庸置疑,谷歌是迫于壓力才推出這些功能,其邏輯在于:與其坐等OpenAI顛覆自身商業(yè)模式,不如主動破局。更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容可參見《財(cái)富》雜志記者莎倫·戈德曼的文章。)

正如其I/O開發(fā)者大會所表明的,谷歌本質(zhì)上是一家面向消費(fèi)者的人工智能公司。盡管訂閱模式對消費(fèi)品牌行之有效——看看網(wǎng)飛(Netflix)或Spotify便知——但每月高達(dá)250美元的訂閱費(fèi),對消費(fèi)者而言實(shí)在難以負(fù)擔(dān)。事實(shí)上,即使是這些流媒體公司也發(fā)現(xiàn),要想保持華爾街所要求的增長,就必須其服務(wù)中植入廣告。歸根結(jié)底,谷歌必須探索出一條路徑,讓廣告在其快速推動形成的聊天機(jī)器人與個(gè)人人工智能助手新生態(tài)中依舊保持效力。微軟面臨的挑戰(zhàn)雖然艱巨,但相對容易一些:只需設(shè)法讓技術(shù)足夠出色,以佐證其服務(wù)成本的合理性。

換言之,谷歌不僅要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新技術(shù),還需重塑自身。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

本周,科技界兩大巨頭在相隔一天、相距750英里的兩地分別舉辦了面向開發(fā)者群體的大會。盡管微軟的Build大會和谷歌的I/O開發(fā)者大會均聚焦人工智能,但這兩場針鋒相對的盛會凸顯出,這兩家行業(yè)巨頭正通過截然不同的策略搶占市場。

這兩家公司均不遺余力地推進(jìn)人工智能編碼助手的發(fā)展,力求達(dá)成軟件自主構(gòu)建與測試的目標(biāo)——微軟宣布GitHub Copilot推出全新自主編碼功能,谷歌則首次推出Jules編碼助手。然而,除編碼助手外,雙方在重點(diǎn)布局方面的關(guān)鍵差異,折射出其戰(zhàn)略路徑的根本分歧。

微軟正努力說服企業(yè)構(gòu)建人工智能代理

在Build大會上,微軟發(fā)布的內(nèi)容更側(cè)重于助力企業(yè)客戶創(chuàng)建人工智能代理,并為其提供實(shí)現(xiàn)工作流自動化的有效工具。其宣傳內(nèi)容涵蓋如何讓代理調(diào)用工具、達(dá)成代理間協(xié)同合作,以及最為關(guān)鍵的——管控人工智能代理的數(shù)據(jù)訪問權(quán)限。這些功能對大型企業(yè)和政府機(jī)構(gòu)至關(guān)重要。

微軟人工智能安全主管內(nèi)塔·海比(Neta Haiby)在一次或許是無心之失中,凸顯了這一點(diǎn)。彼時(shí),一名支持巴勒斯坦的抗議者打斷了Build大會上關(guān)于人工智能時(shí)代安全最佳實(shí)踐的討論環(huán)節(jié),內(nèi)塔·海比誤將電腦屏幕共享至大會現(xiàn)場直播,從而展示出一條來自微軟云業(yè)務(wù)同事的Teams消息。在這條消息里,該云計(jì)算員工透露,使用微軟Azure云服務(wù)運(yùn)行諸多人工智能應(yīng)用的沃爾瑪,正打算采用微軟新推出的AI網(wǎng)關(guān)(此軟件層為生成式人工智能應(yīng)用增強(qiáng)安全性,并提供分析功能)以及全新Entra產(chǎn)品(人工智能代理的身份管理工具),且援引沃爾瑪一位人工智能工程師所言:“微軟在人工智能安全領(lǐng)域遠(yuǎn)超谷歌”。這一披露看似意外——沃爾瑪尚未公開宣布使用這些微軟服務(wù),卻巧妙地強(qiáng)化了微軟的營銷話術(shù)。若真是意外,對微軟而言無疑是意外之喜。

微軟所宣布的即便是更面向消費(fèi)者的功能,實(shí)則也瞄準(zhǔn)企業(yè)客戶。微軟首次推出了NLWeb協(xié)議,使得任何網(wǎng)站或應(yīng)用程序都能輕松部署聊天機(jī)器人,從而讓用戶能夠以自然語言查詢網(wǎng)站內(nèi)容。這固然能提升消費(fèi)者的購物與搜索體驗(yàn),但其初衷在于助力企業(yè)增加銷售額。

谷歌為消費(fèi)者和個(gè)人創(chuàng)作者而戰(zhàn)

這與谷歌在I/O開發(fā)者大會上公布的內(nèi)容形成強(qiáng)烈反差。谷歌宣布的重點(diǎn)幾乎完全聚焦于消費(fèi)者層面,而非大型組織,主要面向個(gè)人網(wǎng)絡(luò)用戶與內(nèi)容創(chuàng)作者。最重磅的消息是谷歌核心搜索產(chǎn)品的全面升級:新增多項(xiàng)人工智能概覽功能,可為用戶查詢提供精簡答案,同時(shí)推出“人工智能模式”,能帶來更原生的人工智能交互體驗(yàn),與用戶使用OpenAI的ChatGPT時(shí)所獲得的體驗(yàn)相似,該模式運(yùn)用了谷歌最為強(qiáng)大的人工智能模型。此外,谷歌還推出了能讓購物者在選購商品時(shí)虛擬試穿服裝的新功能。

谷歌發(fā)布的其他信息還包括新圖像、音頻和視頻生成式人工智能工具,這些工具不僅面向普通消費(fèi)者,也適用于社交媒體創(chuàng)作者。鑒于谷歌旗下?lián)碛杏凸埽╕ouTube),這也在情理之中,因?yàn)檫@些工具能讓用戶更便捷地生成吸引眼球的內(nèi)容。

當(dāng)然,還有一些關(guān)于代理人工智能功能的討論——谷歌將其稱為“水手計(jì)劃”——但這些代理旨在幫助消費(fèi)者處理具體事務(wù),比如購買體育賽事門票或購買雜貨。水手計(jì)劃旨在打造一款通用型個(gè)人助手,而非實(shí)現(xiàn)企業(yè)工作流程自動化。

在I/O開發(fā)者大會上,谷歌重點(diǎn)展示的唯一一款具有企業(yè)應(yīng)用價(jià)值的產(chǎn)品是Beam,這是一款能夠在視頻通話中以3D形式呈現(xiàn)人像的系統(tǒng)。許多公司可能會注冊使用Beam,認(rèn)為它有助于團(tuán)隊(duì)遠(yuǎn)程協(xié)作,甚至能提升虛擬銷售電話的效率,但它似乎難以成為一款能徹底革新業(yè)務(wù)的產(chǎn)品。

微軟需要技術(shù)發(fā)揮作用,而谷歌需要技術(shù)和新商業(yè)模式

Build大會與I/O開發(fā)者大會的另一大顯著差異在于:微軟推出的創(chuàng)新技術(shù)與其現(xiàn)有商業(yè)模式完美適配,而谷歌的多數(shù)發(fā)布內(nèi)容卻與自身商業(yè)模式顯得格格不入。

誠然,微軟也面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn):客戶可能認(rèn)為其推出的各類代理式人工智能產(chǎn)品和功能價(jià)值有限,不愿為微軟期望收取的高額許可費(fèi)買單。不過,一旦人工智能代理獲得市場認(rèn)可,它們只會進(jìn)一步鞏固微軟現(xiàn)有的云業(yè)務(wù)和基于訂閱的商業(yè)模式。

另一方面,谷歌推出人工智能功能無疑是一場豪賭,這可能會直接蠶食其25年以來賴以生存的基于廣告的商業(yè)模式。搜索業(yè)務(wù)占據(jù)谷歌收入的56%,也是其利潤的主要來源。如果像獨(dú)立研究表明的那樣,人工智能概覽功能導(dǎo)致用戶點(diǎn)擊鏈接的次數(shù)減少,或是人工智能模式提供的付費(fèi)鏈接數(shù)量銳減(目前這一情況似乎已然成真),那么谷歌如何維持營收便成了未知之?dāng)?shù)。

針對類似聊天機(jī)器人的界面以及通用型個(gè)人人工智能助手,存在諸多可構(gòu)想全新商業(yè)模式的方式。然而,谷歌尚未明晰其針對這些模式的具體規(guī)劃——在I/O開發(fā)者大會上聆聽谷歌高管發(fā)言時(shí),便能察覺到這家公司尚未真正找到答案。

至少其發(fā)布的圖像、視頻和音頻生成產(chǎn)品有助于為油管提供內(nèi)容支撐,油管仍擁有穩(wěn)健的廣告驅(qū)動型業(yè)務(wù)。然而,在諸多人工智能功能方面,谷歌目前正嘗試轉(zhuǎn)型,著力銷售高價(jià)訂閱服務(wù)。它已將每月19.99美元的AI Premium訂閱服務(wù)更名為Google AI Pro,并向這些訂閱用戶開放部分新功能。此外,谷歌還推出了面向高級用戶的Google AI Ultra訂閱服務(wù),每月費(fèi)用達(dá)250美元,這些用戶可享谷歌最先進(jìn)的人工智能功能,且使用量幾乎不受限制。

實(shí)在難以設(shè)想,谷歌能售出足夠多的此類訂閱服務(wù),以填補(bǔ)因推出人工智能搜索功能而可能帶來的廣告收入損失。實(shí)際上,Ultra級別的訂閱費(fèi)用如此高昂,難以稱得上是商業(yè)模式,或許僅能勉強(qiáng)覆蓋少量付費(fèi)用戶的成本。然而,對于谷歌這般規(guī)模的公司來說,這似乎并非一項(xiàng)嚴(yán)肅的業(yè)務(wù),充其量只是權(quán)宜之計(jì),處于過去谷歌與未來尚未明晰的谷歌之間的一種過渡形態(tài)。(毋庸置疑,谷歌是迫于壓力才推出這些功能,其邏輯在于:與其坐等OpenAI顛覆自身商業(yè)模式,不如主動破局。更多相關(guān)內(nèi)容可參見《財(cái)富》雜志記者莎倫·戈德曼的文章。)

正如其I/O開發(fā)者大會所表明的,谷歌本質(zhì)上是一家面向消費(fèi)者的人工智能公司。盡管訂閱模式對消費(fèi)品牌行之有效——看看網(wǎng)飛(Netflix)或Spotify便知——但每月高達(dá)250美元的訂閱費(fèi),對消費(fèi)者而言實(shí)在難以負(fù)擔(dān)。事實(shí)上,即使是這些流媒體公司也發(fā)現(xiàn),要想保持華爾街所要求的增長,就必須其服務(wù)中植入廣告。歸根結(jié)底,谷歌必須探索出一條路徑,讓廣告在其快速推動形成的聊天機(jī)器人與個(gè)人人工智能助手新生態(tài)中依舊保持效力。微軟面臨的挑戰(zhàn)雖然艱巨,但相對容易一些:只需設(shè)法讓技術(shù)足夠出色,以佐證其服務(wù)成本的合理性。

換言之,谷歌不僅要?jiǎng)?chuàng)新技術(shù),還需重塑自身。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:中慧言-王芳

In the span of one day and 750 miles, two of tech’s biggest companies put on conferences for their armies of developers this week. And while both Microsoft’s Build and Google’s I/O conferences were all about AI, the dueling convocations highlighted how the two industry behemoths are each seeking to conquer the market through radically different strategies.

Both companies made a big push into AI coding assistants that can autonomously build and test software—with Microsoft announcing a new autonomous coding feature for GitHub Copilot and Googled debuting its Jules coding agent. But beyond coding agents, some key differences in emphasis pointed at divergent strategies.

Microsoft is battling to convince enterprises to build AI agents

At Build, Microsoft placed a far greater emphasis in its announcements on tools that are designed to help enterprise customers create AI agents and get them to successfully automate workflows. Microsoft’s announcements were about how to allow agents to use tools, get agents to work with other agents, and, critically, to control what data AI agents access. These things matter to big companies and governments.

In an episode that underscored that point, in what may or may not have been an inadvertent slip-up, when a pro-Palestinian protestor interrupted a Build session on security best practices in the age of AI, Neta Haiby, Microsoft’s head of AI security mistakenly shared her computer screen with the Build livestream. In doing so, she revealed a Teams message from one of her colleagues from Microsoft’s cloud business. In it, the cloud employee said that Walmart, which uses many AI applications on Microsoft’s Azure cloud service, was planning to use Microsoft’s newly-announced AI Gateway, which is a software layer that adds security and analytics around generative AI applications, and its new Entra product, which is an identity management tool for AI agents. The employee quoted a Walmart AI engineer as saying that “Microsoft is WAY ahead of Google with AI security.” The disclosure seemed completely accidental—Walmart has not yet announced its use of these Microsoft services—but the fact is it perfectly reinforced Microsoft’s marketing message. If it was an accident, it was a happy one for Microsoft.

Even the more consumer-oriented aspects of what Microsoft announced were aimed at business customers. It debuted a protocol called NLWeb that makes it easy for any website or app to set up a chatbot that will allow a user to query the site in natural language. That will make for a better shopping experience and searching experience for consumers, but the idea here is to help companies drive more sales.

Google is battling for consumers and individual creators

Contrast that to what Google announced at I/O. Here the emphasis was almost entirely on consumers, not large organizations. It was about individual web users and individual content creators. The biggest news was the revamping of Google’s core Search product, with more AI Overviews, which provide capsule answers to queries, and also a new “AI Mode” that provides a more native AI experience, similar to what users get with OpenAI’s ChatGPT, using Google’s most capable AI models. It will also have new features that allow shoppers to virtually try on outfits as they shop.

Other announcements from Google were new image, audio, and video generative AI tools that were aimed at both general consumers and social media creators. This makes sense given Google’s ownership of YouTube, as the tools make it easier for users to generate engaging content.

Sure, there was some talk about agentic AI capabilities—which are being released under what Google is calling Project Mariner—but these were about agents designed to help consumers do things, like purchase tickets to a sporting event, or buy groceries. Project Mariner is about building a universal personal assistant. It is not about automating enterprise workflows.

The only product with real enterprise uses that Google highlighted at I/O was Beam, a system that renders people in 3D in video calls. Many companies will probably sign up for Beam thinking it helps teams collaborate remotely and maybe even makes virtual sales calls more effective, but it hardly seems like something that is going to transform business.

Microsoft needs the tech to work. Google needs that—and a new business model

What was also striking between Build and I/O is how comfortably the innovations Microsoft is announcing sit within the software giant’s existing business model, and how awkwardly much of what Google announced sits within its own.

Sure, Microsoft is taking a risk that its customers won’t find enough value in all the agentic AI products and features it is rolling out to pay the increased license fee that Microsoft wants to charge for it. But, if the AI agents gain traction, they only reinforce its existing cloud business and subscription-based business model.

Google, on the other hand, is taking a big gamble with its rollout of AI features that could directly cannibalize the advertising-based business model on which it has depended for a quarter century. Search represents 56% of Google’s revenues and most of its profits. If people click on fewer links with AI Overviews, as independent studies suggest, or if AI Mode offers far fewer opportunities for paid links, as also seems to be the case, it isn’t clear how Google will maintain its revenues.

There are plenty of ways to imagine new business models for chatbot-like interface and a universal personal AI assistant. But Google has not said yet what it thinks those business models should be—and listening to Google executives speak at I/O one got the sense the company hasn’t really figured it out yet.

At least the image, video, and audio generation products it announced help feed YouTube, which still has a healthy ad-driven business. But for many of its AI features, Google is trying for now to pivot to selling pricey subscriptions. It has renamed its $19.99 per month AI Premium subscription Google AI Pro, and made some of its new features available to those subscribers. And then it has announced a very expensive $250 per month Google AI Ultra subscription for power users who will get access to Google’s most advanced AI capabilities, with few caps on usage.

It’s hard to imagine that Google will be able to sell enough of these subscriptions to replace the ad dollars they are potentially going to lose by rolling out the AI Search features. In fact, the Ultra tier is so expensive it isn’t really a business at all. It might just about cover the costs of those few power users who sign up for it. But it doesn’t seem like a serious business for a company of Google’s scale. It is at best a stop gap measure—a halfway house between the Google of the past, and a future Google whose shape has not yet come into focus. (No doubt Google is under pressure to roll out these features on the theory that it is better to disrupt its own business model, than to let OpenAI disrupt it. More on that here from Fortune’s Sharon Goldman.)

As its I/O conference made clear, Google is essentially a consumer AI company. And while a subscription model can work for consumer brands—just ask Netflix or Spotify—it can’t work for consumers at $250 per month. In fact, even those streaming companies have found that to keep producing the growth Wall Street demands, they’ve had to incorporate advertising into their offerings. Ultimately, Google is going to have to figure out a way to make advertising still work in a new world of chatbots and AI personal assistants it is rapidly ushering into existence. Microsoft’s challenge is daunting but easier: it just has to figure out how to make the tech work well enough to justify its cost to serve.

In other words, Google needs to not only invent the tech, it needs to reinvent itself.

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