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老牌車企與造車新勢(shì)力,誰(shuí)更有希望?

福特成為了寵兒,而自命不凡的Rivian則成為了被唾棄的對(duì)象。

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在過(guò)去兩年中,隨著福特(Ford)步履維艱地打造風(fēng)光的電動(dòng)汽車業(yè)務(wù),投資者認(rèn)為福特已經(jīng)成為了過(guò)氣的王者。一些電動(dòng)汽車制造新貴則一飛沖天,包括Rivian,這家公司沒(méi)有多少造車實(shí)績(jī),但也不妨礙它成為熱點(diǎn)。

如今,角色發(fā)生了反轉(zhuǎn):福特成為了寵兒,而自命不凡的Rivian則成為了被唾棄的對(duì)象。

3月2日,福特的首席執(zhí)行官吉姆·法利正式宣布公司重組的消息讓投資者興奮了一把。福特將打造兩個(gè)自負(fù)盈虧的獨(dú)立業(yè)務(wù)線。通過(guò)將新的“福特Model e”從傳統(tǒng)“Ford Blue”部門中剝離出來(lái),管理層希望在消除不必要的重復(fù)的同時(shí)繼續(xù)受益于規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)。

法利在3月2日對(duì)記者說(shuō):“現(xiàn)實(shí)在于,我們的傳統(tǒng)構(gòu)架一直在拖我們的后腿。我們必須做出改變。”他同時(shí)還否認(rèn)了一個(gè)觀點(diǎn),即此舉是整體剝離電動(dòng)汽車業(yè)務(wù)并謀求上市的前奏。

福特將公司一分為二,我們也知道它別無(wú)選擇。在這種情況下,傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)部分將拿走所有的利潤(rùn),而電動(dòng)汽車那一部分將承擔(dān)所有的虧損。福特會(huì)為電動(dòng)汽車業(yè)務(wù)籌集資金。不過(guò),福特在Rivian持有的股份應(yīng)該何去何從?$F $RIVN

——羅斯·格伯(@GerberKawasaki),2022年3月2日

自新冠疫情引發(fā)了散戶投資者的電動(dòng)汽車股票熱以來(lái),現(xiàn)存的各大車企均經(jīng)歷了市值的下跌,分析師們也據(jù)此猜測(cè),大盤(pán)不再期望這些公司能夠在向零排放車輛的轉(zhuǎn)型進(jìn)程中存活下來(lái)。

然而,福特股價(jià)在3月2日大漲8%,原因在于投資者對(duì)法利在今年2月初籠統(tǒng)承諾的重組抱有不少希望,當(dāng)時(shí),他稱自己具備成功所需的“付諸行動(dòng),破釜沉舟”的心態(tài)。

受拆分影響,福特如今預(yù)計(jì)其2026年的電動(dòng)汽車產(chǎn)量為200萬(wàn)臺(tái),明年將生產(chǎn)60萬(wàn)臺(tái),同時(shí)削減30億美元的成本。這些成本削減基本上將來(lái)自于公司內(nèi)燃機(jī)汽車業(yè)務(wù)的精簡(jiǎn),而該業(yè)務(wù)將以明星車型為核心,例如Mustang轎跑、Bronco SUV和F-150皮卡。

與此同時(shí),在遠(yuǎn)離福特底特律郊區(qū)總部的南加州,Rivian告訴已經(jīng)訂購(gòu)并等待車輛交付的客戶,受近期高通脹率的影響,公司將大幅提高這些車輛的售價(jià)。此番言論引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)輿論風(fēng)暴。

一大批潛在的車主愿意冒險(xiǎn)購(gòu)買他們以前從未見(jiàn)過(guò)的車型,更想親身試駕一下。在2021年Rivian創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的IPO中,這些人對(duì)于投資者來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)重要的賣點(diǎn)。通常,與未來(lái)的新車主不同的是,預(yù)訂者還希望通過(guò)提前訂購(gòu)這種方式來(lái)避免可能出現(xiàn)的漲價(jià),尤其是在Rivian基本還未開(kāi)始生產(chǎn)所有承諾車型的時(shí)候。Rivian向美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)(SEC)報(bào)備的文件顯示,2021年,該公司僅交付了920輛車。

在預(yù)訂客戶于3月1日的晚些時(shí)候獲悉Rivian獲獎(jiǎng)R1T電動(dòng)卡車的價(jià)格將上調(diào)17%,R1S跨界車將上調(diào)20%時(shí),很多人都通過(guò)社交媒體表達(dá)了自己的憤怒。

@Rivian的又一個(gè)敗招。它們的卡車如今要價(jià)10萬(wàn)美元,為了買這輛車,我在幾個(gè)月前才攢夠了8.5萬(wàn)美元(而且并不像特斯拉那樣履行鎖定價(jià)格)。說(shuō)句實(shí)話,都想取消訂單了。漲價(jià)1.5萬(wàn)美元,瘋了。pic.twitter.com/TEXXz4VMRM

——奎因·納爾遜(@SnazzyQ),2022年3月1日

杰斯·克拉夫特-米勒寫(xiě)道:“我看到的‘我取消了預(yù)訂’的帖子比以往任何時(shí)候都要多??蛻粼跀?shù)年前便下了訂單,而且交了1000美元訂金。漲價(jià)高達(dá)20%,是時(shí)候反省一下了?!?/p>

在公司激怒了眾多粉絲的新聞爆出之后,公司股價(jià)在3月2日暴跌近14%,收于53.56美元,遠(yuǎn)低于其78美元的IPO價(jià)格。

2021年11月,Rivian的股票達(dá)到了略低于180美元的頂峰,盡管公司僅交付了幾十輛車,但其市值比福特高出了約50%。然而自那之后,其股價(jià)暴跌了近70%。

在回應(yīng)《財(cái)富》雜志提問(wèn)時(shí),Rivian解釋說(shuō),公司不得不解決因?yàn)楣?yīng)鏈前所未有的短缺而造成的原材料成本上漲的問(wèn)題,其中包括半導(dǎo)體芯片供應(yīng)。

Rivian的首席增長(zhǎng)官吉騰·貝爾在一份聲明中稱:“這些頗具挑戰(zhàn)的局勢(shì)所帶來(lái)的成本和復(fù)雜性的增加,迫使公司將R1T和R1S車型價(jià)格上調(diào)至當(dāng)前的水平,而此前的價(jià)格是在2018年定下的?!?/p>

為了向客戶提供價(jià)格更加平易近人的車型,Rivian稱公司將生產(chǎn)動(dòng)力稍弱的四驅(qū)車型,而且將把電機(jī)數(shù)從四個(gè)減為兩個(gè),同時(shí)縮減皮卡和SUV車型的電池包容量。

Rivian依然擁有售價(jià)6.7萬(wàn)美元的車型。

只不過(guò),這個(gè)車型如今只能跑260英里,而不是400英里,只有兩個(gè)電機(jī)而不是四個(gè),并將于2024年開(kāi)始生產(chǎn),而不是2021年。

換句話說(shuō),產(chǎn)品剛剛接受了現(xiàn)實(shí)的洗禮。

——Whole Mars Catalog(@WholeMarsBlog),2022年3月2日

有鑒于福特在2019年曾經(jīng)出資5億美元購(gòu)買Rivian的股份,投資者的這種角色轉(zhuǎn)換還真是頗具諷刺意味。由于福特不再以內(nèi)燃機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)為重點(diǎn),隨著時(shí)間的推移,投資對(duì)于這個(gè)有著悠久歷史的汽車制造商來(lái)說(shuō)倒是沒(méi)有那么重要了。

事實(shí)上,福特的法利在行業(yè)刊物《汽車新聞》(Automotive News)上透露,他打消了與Rivian聯(lián)合開(kāi)發(fā)電動(dòng)汽車的念頭。在此之后,2021年11月中旬創(chuàng)歷史新高的Rivian股價(jià)便開(kāi)始了其史詩(shī)級(jí)的下跌旅程。如今,隨著福特全身心投入電動(dòng)汽車領(lǐng)域,取消合作的原因已經(jīng)變得異常清楚。

法利再次強(qiáng)調(diào):“如今,我們的企業(yè)構(gòu)架正在拖公司的后腿,讓我們無(wú)法專注?!?Ford Blue將專注于從其內(nèi)燃機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)中獲取現(xiàn)金和利潤(rùn),而福特Model e將專注于推動(dòng)創(chuàng)新,并招聘最好的技術(shù)人才:“我們無(wú)法讓一個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)同時(shí)做這兩件事情?!彼f(shuō)。

3月2日股價(jià)的上漲說(shuō)明,福特由于其電動(dòng)汽車策略,比Rivian更受投資者青睞。法利執(zhí)掌的這家公司當(dāng)前的市值為730億美元,是排名第六的汽車制造商,而市值480億美元的Rivian則連前十都未能保住,更不用說(shuō)此前排名前五的戰(zhàn)績(jī)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

在過(guò)去兩年中,隨著福特(Ford)步履維艱地打造風(fēng)光的電動(dòng)汽車業(yè)務(wù),投資者認(rèn)為福特已經(jīng)成為了過(guò)氣的王者。一些電動(dòng)汽車制造新貴則一飛沖天,包括Rivian,這家公司沒(méi)有多少造車實(shí)績(jī),但也不妨礙它成為熱點(diǎn)。

如今,角色發(fā)生了反轉(zhuǎn):福特成為了寵兒,而自命不凡的Rivian則成為了被唾棄的對(duì)象。

3月2日,福特的首席執(zhí)行官吉姆·法利正式宣布公司重組的消息讓投資者興奮了一把。福特將打造兩個(gè)自負(fù)盈虧的獨(dú)立業(yè)務(wù)線。通過(guò)將新的“福特Model e”從傳統(tǒng)“Ford Blue”部門中剝離出來(lái),管理層希望在消除不必要的重復(fù)的同時(shí)繼續(xù)受益于規(guī)模經(jīng)濟(jì)。

法利在3月2日對(duì)記者說(shuō):“現(xiàn)實(shí)在于,我們的傳統(tǒng)構(gòu)架一直在拖我們的后腿。我們必須做出改變。”他同時(shí)還否認(rèn)了一個(gè)觀點(diǎn),即此舉是整體剝離電動(dòng)汽車業(yè)務(wù)并謀求上市的前奏。

福特將公司一分為二,我們也知道它別無(wú)選擇。在這種情況下,傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務(wù)部分將拿走所有的利潤(rùn),而電動(dòng)汽車那一部分將承擔(dān)所有的虧損。福特會(huì)為電動(dòng)汽車業(yè)務(wù)籌集資金。不過(guò),福特在Rivian持有的股份應(yīng)該何去何從?$F $RIVN

——羅斯·格伯(@GerberKawasaki),2022年3月2日

自新冠疫情引發(fā)了散戶投資者的電動(dòng)汽車股票熱以來(lái),現(xiàn)存的各大車企均經(jīng)歷了市值的下跌,分析師們也據(jù)此猜測(cè),大盤(pán)不再期望這些公司能夠在向零排放車輛的轉(zhuǎn)型進(jìn)程中存活下來(lái)。

然而,福特股價(jià)在3月2日大漲8%,原因在于投資者對(duì)法利在今年2月初籠統(tǒng)承諾的重組抱有不少希望,當(dāng)時(shí),他稱自己具備成功所需的“付諸行動(dòng),破釜沉舟”的心態(tài)。

受拆分影響,福特如今預(yù)計(jì)其2026年的電動(dòng)汽車產(chǎn)量為200萬(wàn)臺(tái),明年將生產(chǎn)60萬(wàn)臺(tái),同時(shí)削減30億美元的成本。這些成本削減基本上將來(lái)自于公司內(nèi)燃機(jī)汽車業(yè)務(wù)的精簡(jiǎn),而該業(yè)務(wù)將以明星車型為核心,例如Mustang轎跑、Bronco SUV和F-150皮卡。

與此同時(shí),在遠(yuǎn)離福特底特律郊區(qū)總部的南加州,Rivian告訴已經(jīng)訂購(gòu)并等待車輛交付的客戶,受近期高通脹率的影響,公司將大幅提高這些車輛的售價(jià)。此番言論引發(fā)了一場(chǎng)輿論風(fēng)暴。

一大批潛在的車主愿意冒險(xiǎn)購(gòu)買他們以前從未見(jiàn)過(guò)的車型,更想親身試駕一下。在2021年Rivian創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的IPO中,這些人對(duì)于投資者來(lái)說(shuō)是一個(gè)重要的賣點(diǎn)。通常,與未來(lái)的新車主不同的是,預(yù)訂者還希望通過(guò)提前訂購(gòu)這種方式來(lái)避免可能出現(xiàn)的漲價(jià),尤其是在Rivian基本還未開(kāi)始生產(chǎn)所有承諾車型的時(shí)候。Rivian向美國(guó)證券交易委員會(huì)(SEC)報(bào)備的文件顯示,2021年,該公司僅交付了920輛車。

在預(yù)訂客戶于3月1日的晚些時(shí)候獲悉Rivian獲獎(jiǎng)R1T電動(dòng)卡車的價(jià)格將上調(diào)17%,R1S跨界車將上調(diào)20%時(shí),很多人都通過(guò)社交媒體表達(dá)了自己的憤怒。

@Rivian的又一個(gè)敗招。它們的卡車如今要價(jià)10萬(wàn)美元,為了買這輛車,我在幾個(gè)月前才攢夠了8.5萬(wàn)美元(而且并不像特斯拉那樣履行鎖定價(jià)格)。說(shuō)句實(shí)話,都想取消訂單了。漲價(jià)1.5萬(wàn)美元,瘋了。pic.twitter.com/TEXXz4VMRM

——奎因·納爾遜(@SnazzyQ),2022年3月1日

杰斯·克拉夫特-米勒寫(xiě)道:“我看到的‘我取消了預(yù)訂’的帖子比以往任何時(shí)候都要多??蛻粼跀?shù)年前便下了訂單,而且交了1000美元訂金。漲價(jià)高達(dá)20%,是時(shí)候反省一下了?!?/p>

在公司激怒了眾多粉絲的新聞爆出之后,公司股價(jià)在3月2日暴跌近14%,收于53.56美元,遠(yuǎn)低于其78美元的IPO價(jià)格。

2021年11月,Rivian的股票達(dá)到了略低于180美元的頂峰,盡管公司僅交付了幾十輛車,但其市值比福特高出了約50%。然而自那之后,其股價(jià)暴跌了近70%。

在回應(yīng)《財(cái)富》雜志提問(wèn)時(shí),Rivian解釋說(shuō),公司不得不解決因?yàn)楣?yīng)鏈前所未有的短缺而造成的原材料成本上漲的問(wèn)題,其中包括半導(dǎo)體芯片供應(yīng)。

Rivian的首席增長(zhǎng)官吉騰·貝爾在一份聲明中稱:“這些頗具挑戰(zhàn)的局勢(shì)所帶來(lái)的成本和復(fù)雜性的增加,迫使公司將R1T和R1S車型價(jià)格上調(diào)至當(dāng)前的水平,而此前的價(jià)格是在2018年定下的?!?/p>

為了向客戶提供價(jià)格更加平易近人的車型,Rivian稱公司將生產(chǎn)動(dòng)力稍弱的四驅(qū)車型,而且將把電機(jī)數(shù)從四個(gè)減為兩個(gè),同時(shí)縮減皮卡和SUV車型的電池包容量。

Rivian依然擁有售價(jià)6.7萬(wàn)美元的車型。

只不過(guò),這個(gè)車型如今只能跑260英里,而不是400英里,只有兩個(gè)電機(jī)而不是四個(gè),并將于2024年開(kāi)始生產(chǎn),而不是2021年。

換句話說(shuō),產(chǎn)品剛剛接受了現(xiàn)實(shí)的洗禮。

——Whole Mars Catalog(@WholeMarsBlog),2022年3月2日

有鑒于福特在2019年曾經(jīng)出資5億美元購(gòu)買Rivian的股份,投資者的這種角色轉(zhuǎn)換還真是頗具諷刺意味。由于福特不再以內(nèi)燃機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)為重點(diǎn),隨著時(shí)間的推移,投資對(duì)于這個(gè)有著悠久歷史的汽車制造商來(lái)說(shuō)倒是沒(méi)有那么重要了。

事實(shí)上,福特的法利在行業(yè)刊物《汽車新聞》(Automotive News)上透露,他打消了與Rivian聯(lián)合開(kāi)發(fā)電動(dòng)汽車的念頭。在此之后,2021年11月中旬創(chuàng)歷史新高的Rivian股價(jià)便開(kāi)始了其史詩(shī)級(jí)的下跌旅程。如今,隨著福特全身心投入電動(dòng)汽車領(lǐng)域,取消合作的原因已經(jīng)變得異常清楚。

法利再次強(qiáng)調(diào):“如今,我們的企業(yè)構(gòu)架正在拖公司的后腿,讓我們無(wú)法專注?!?Ford Blue將專注于從其內(nèi)燃機(jī)業(yè)務(wù)中獲取現(xiàn)金和利潤(rùn),而福特Model e將專注于推動(dòng)創(chuàng)新,并招聘最好的技術(shù)人才:“我們無(wú)法讓一個(gè)團(tuán)隊(duì)同時(shí)做這兩件事情。”他說(shuō)。

3月2日股價(jià)的上漲說(shuō)明,福特由于其電動(dòng)汽車策略,比Rivian更受投資者青睞。法利執(zhí)掌的這家公司當(dāng)前的市值為730億美元,是排名第六的汽車制造商,而市值480億美元的Rivian則連前十都未能保住,更不用說(shuō)此前排名前五的戰(zhàn)績(jī)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

For the past two years, investors considered Ford to be past its prime as it struggled to create a thriving electric car business. Upstart electric vehicle makers soared, even those like Rivian with little track record of actually producing the cars it had promised.

Now the roles are reversed: Ford has become the favorite while upstart Rivian has been recast as the villain.

On March 2, investors cheered after Ford CEO Jim Farley made the reorganization official, creating two separate business lines, each reporting its own profit and loss. By running the new "Ford Model e" separately from the legacy "Ford Blue" unit, management hopes to eliminate needless duplication while still benefiting from economies of scale.

“The reality is our legacy organization has been holding us back. We had to change,” Farley told reporters during a presentation on March 2, refuting speculation this was a precursor to spinning out the EV business entirely and taking it public.

Ford breaking the company into two as we knew it had too. It will have the legacy half with all the profits. Then the EV half with all the losses. They will raise money with the EV half. What happens to the rivian stake ? $F $RIVN

— Ross Gerber (@GerberKawasaki) March 2, 2022

Since the pandemic elicited an EV stock boom powered by retail investors, incumbent carmakers have watched their valuations tumble, causing analysts to surmise that the broader market no longer expected the companies to survive the transition towards zero-emission vehicles.

On March 2, however, Ford shares jumped over 8% on investor hopes about the reorganization Farley had promised more generally in early February when he claimed to possess a “bias for action, whatever-it-takes mindset” to succeed.

As a result of the split, Ford now anticipates producing 2 million electric vehicles in 2026, versus 600,000 EVs next year, while shaving $3 billion in costs. The savings will stem largely from streamlining the company’s combustion engine car business, which will be grouped around high-profile models like the Mustang coupe, Bronco SUV, and F-150 pickup truck.

Meanwhile, in Southern California, far from Ford’s suburban Detroit headquarters, Rivian sparked a storm after it told customers still waiting on vehicles they have put deposits on that it would significantly jack up the price of those cars to account for recent high inflation.

This large pool of potential owners willing to take a chance on a car they had never seen, let alone driven, was a key selling point for investors during Rivian’s record-shattering IPO last year. Typically, reservation holders would also expect to be shielded from any price hikes, unlike new future owners — especially when Rivian has barely even begun building all the vehicles it promised. Last year, the company delivered just 920 to owners, according to a company SEC filing.

After customers were informed late on March 1 that the cost of Rivian’s award-winning R1T electric truck would rise 17% and for the R1S crossover by as much as a fifth, many took to social media to express their anger.

YIKES!!! @Rivian with another swing and a miss. They now want over $100,000 for the truck I reserved at $85,000 a few months ago (and not honoring locked-in prices as Tesla does). Honestly, this is cancellation worthy. An extra $15K is INSANE. pic.twitter.com/TEXXz4VMRM

— Quinn Nelson (@SnazzyQ) March 1, 2022

“I’ve seen more ‘I canceled my reservation’ posts than I’ve ever seen before. Time to maybe rethink charging customers up to 20% more when they ordered years ago and gave you $1000,” wrote Jace Craft-Miller.

Following the news that the company had angered many fans, the stock tumbled nearly 14% during March 2's session to $53.56, far below its IPO price of $78.

In November, Rivian's shares had hit a peak just shy of $180 while its market cap exceeded Ford's by some 50%, despite having shipped only a few dozen vehicles ever. Since then, however, it's shares have plunged nearly 70%.

In response to Fortune's questions, Rivian explained its price hike by saying it had to address the problem of rising raw material costs stemming from an unprecedented supply chain shortage that includes semiconductor chips.

"This rise in cost and complexity due to these challenging circumstances necessitate an increase to the prices of the R1T and R1S models we offer today — prices which were originally set in 2018," Jiten Behl, Rivian’s chief growth officer, said in the statement.

To offer a more affordable version to customers, Rivian said it would bring a less powerful all-wheel-drive version with two motors instead of four, and a smaller battery pack for both its pickup truck and its SUV models.

Rivian still has a vehicle at $67,000.

Ita€?s just that it now goes 260 miles instead of 400, has two motors instead of four, and starts production in 2024 instead of 2021

In other words the product just met reality $RIVN

— Whole Mars Catalog (@WholeMarsBlog) March 2, 2022

The role-swap among investors was all that more ironic given Ford had paid $500 million to buy a stake in Rivian in 2019. With Ford no longer prioritizing its internal combustion engine (ICE) business, the investment has become less important over time to the legacy car maker.

In fact, Rivian's stock began its epic collapse from its mid-November all-time highs after Ford's Farley revealed to industry publication Automotive News that he had been scrapped plans to jointly developed an electric vehicle with Rivian. It's now clear why, as Ford is going full-steam towards EVs.

“Today our corporate structure is holding us back, it does not allow us to focus," Farley emphasized once more. While Ford Blue would concentrate on wringing cash and profits from its ICE operations, Ford Model e would focus primarily on driving innovation and recruiting the best tech talent around: "We cannot ask the team to do both at the same time," he said.

With March 2's share price divergence, Ford is earning more points from investors on its EV strategy than Rivian. Farley's company is currently the sixth largest carmaker by market cap at $73 billion, while Rivian's $48 billion no longer secures it even a place amongst the top 10—let alone the former spot it held in the top five.

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