歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇速度或?qū)⒊A(yù)期
Christiaan Hetzner
2021-07-08
根據(jù)歐盟委員會(huì)（European Commission）對(duì)今年夏季的預(yù)測(cè)，歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)或?qū)⒃诮衲曜詈笕齻€(gè)月恢復(fù)到新冠肺炎疫情爆發(fā)前的水平，比預(yù)期要提前了一個(gè)季度。
由于新冠疫苗的供應(yīng)量增加，歐盟的疫苗接種率幾乎趕上美國(guó)。歐盟（European Union）預(yù)計(jì)，疫苗接種活動(dòng)將強(qiáng)勁反彈，足以擺脫原材料短缺的影響。
歐盟委員會(huì)的執(zhí)行副主席瓦爾蒂斯?東布羅夫斯基斯在一份聲明中贊揚(yáng)稱，由于抗擊新冠肺炎取得顯著進(jìn)展，“所有正確的部分都已經(jīng)到位”，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇前景強(qiáng)勁。
他說：“由于遏制戰(zhàn)略有效，新冠疫苗接種進(jìn)展迅速，我們經(jīng)濟(jì)的重新開放速度能夠比預(yù)期更快。”他還補(bǔ)充道，7238億歐元（約8540億美元）的“復(fù)蘇及彈性基金”（Recovery and Resilience Facility）將支持未來的增長(zhǎng)。
預(yù)計(jì)今年歐元區(qū)以整個(gè)歐盟的產(chǎn)出將以4.8%的速度增長(zhǎng)，較春季的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)分別修正了50個(gè)基點(diǎn)和60個(gè)基點(diǎn)。歐盟委員會(huì)還將兩地明年的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增幅預(yù)估上調(diào)10個(gè)基點(diǎn)，至4.5%。
歐盟內(nèi)部旅游業(yè)復(fù)蘇也展現(xiàn)出了樂觀情緒。這應(yīng)當(dāng)?shù)靡嬗谛碌臍W盟新冠疫情數(shù)字證書（EU Digital COVID Certificate）。
但是，制造商成本上升意味著通脹也將高于預(yù)期，這給歐洲央行（European Central Bank）帶來了壓力。德國(guó)央行（Bundesbank）的行長(zhǎng)延斯?魏德曼等鷹派人士呼吁，一旦經(jīng)濟(jì)完全恢復(fù)到2019年的水平，就停止緊急資產(chǎn)購買。
預(yù)計(jì)稱，歐元區(qū)今年的平均消費(fèi)價(jià)格漲幅將達(dá)到1.9%，比之前預(yù)測(cè)的1.7%要高。歐盟委員會(huì)還將其對(duì)2022年的預(yù)測(cè)略微上調(diào)了10個(gè)基點(diǎn)，至1.4%。
“由于國(guó)內(nèi)外需求的強(qiáng)勁，我們將必須密切關(guān)注通脹的上升?！睎|布羅夫斯基斯說道。
歐盟委員會(huì)指出，圍繞增長(zhǎng)前景的不確定性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很高，但總體上仍然保持平衡。委員會(huì)還補(bǔ)充稱，如果供應(yīng)限制更加持久、上行壓力將更多地傳遞給消費(fèi)者，消費(fèi)者價(jià)格漲幅可能高于預(yù)期。
下一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)將于今年11月公布。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
編譯：楊二一
根據(jù)歐盟委員會(huì)（European Commission）對(duì)今年夏季的預(yù)測(cè)，歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)或?qū)⒃诮衲曜詈笕齻€(gè)月恢復(fù)到新冠肺炎疫情爆發(fā)前的水平，比預(yù)期要提前了一個(gè)季度。
由于新冠疫苗的供應(yīng)量增加，歐盟的疫苗接種率幾乎趕上美國(guó)。歐盟（European Union）預(yù)計(jì)，疫苗接種活動(dòng)將強(qiáng)勁反彈，足以擺脫原材料短缺的影響。
歐盟委員會(huì)的執(zhí)行副主席瓦爾蒂斯?東布羅夫斯基斯在一份聲明中贊揚(yáng)稱，由于抗擊新冠肺炎取得顯著進(jìn)展，“所有正確的部分都已經(jīng)到位”，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇前景強(qiáng)勁。
他說：“由于遏制戰(zhàn)略有效，新冠疫苗接種進(jìn)展迅速，我們經(jīng)濟(jì)的重新開放速度能夠比預(yù)期更快。”他還補(bǔ)充道，7238億歐元（約8540億美元）的“復(fù)蘇及彈性基金”（Recovery and Resilience Facility）將支持未來的增長(zhǎng)。
預(yù)計(jì)今年歐元區(qū)以整個(gè)歐盟的產(chǎn)出將以4.8%的速度增長(zhǎng)，較春季的經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)分別修正了50個(gè)基點(diǎn)和60個(gè)基點(diǎn)。歐盟委員會(huì)還將兩地明年的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值增幅預(yù)估上調(diào)10個(gè)基點(diǎn)，至4.5%。
歐盟內(nèi)部旅游業(yè)復(fù)蘇也展現(xiàn)出了樂觀情緒。這應(yīng)當(dāng)?shù)靡嬗谛碌臍W盟新冠疫情數(shù)字證書（EU Digital COVID Certificate）。
但是，制造商成本上升意味著通脹也將高于預(yù)期，這給歐洲央行（European Central Bank）帶來了壓力。德國(guó)央行（Bundesbank）的行長(zhǎng)延斯?魏德曼等鷹派人士呼吁，一旦經(jīng)濟(jì)完全恢復(fù)到2019年的水平，就停止緊急資產(chǎn)購買。
預(yù)計(jì)稱，歐元區(qū)今年的平均消費(fèi)價(jià)格漲幅將達(dá)到1.9%，比之前預(yù)測(cè)的1.7%要高。歐盟委員會(huì)還將其對(duì)2022年的預(yù)測(cè)略微上調(diào)了10個(gè)基點(diǎn)，至1.4%。
“由于國(guó)內(nèi)外需求的強(qiáng)勁，我們將必須密切關(guān)注通脹的上升?！睎|布羅夫斯基斯說道。
歐盟委員會(huì)指出，圍繞增長(zhǎng)前景的不確定性和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很高，但總體上仍然保持平衡。委員會(huì)還補(bǔ)充稱，如果供應(yīng)限制更加持久、上行壓力將更多地傳遞給消費(fèi)者，消費(fèi)者價(jià)格漲幅可能高于預(yù)期。
下一輪經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)將于今年11月公布。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）
編譯：楊二一
Europe’s economy should return to pre-pandemic levels in the final three months of this year, one quarter earlier than predicted, according to the European Commission’s summer forecast.
Thanks to an increase in vaccine supply that has seen the European Union all but catch up to the U.S. in its inoculation rate, Brussels expects a rebound in activity strong enough to shrug off shortages in raw materials.
In a statement, European Commission executive vice president Valdis Dombrovskis praised the robust outlook in which “all the right pieces falling into place” thanks to progress in the fight against the Coronavirus.
“Our economies have been able to reopen faster than expected thanks to an effective containment strategy and progress with vaccinations,” he said, adding the €723.8 billion ($854 billion) Recovery and Resilience Facility would support growth going forward.
Output in both the euro area and the broader EU is forecast to expand at a rate of 4.8% this year, a revision of 50 basis points and 60 bps, respectively, over the spring economic forecast. The Commission also hiked its estimates for next year’s increase in gross domestic product by 10 bps to 4.5% in both cases.
Evidence of a revival in intra-EU tourism provided further optimism, which should benefit from the new EU Digital COVID Certificate.
Rising costs for manufacturers means inflation will also come in hotter than expected, putting pressure on the European Central Bank. Hawks like Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann have called for an end to emergency asset purchases once the economy has fully recovered to 2019 levels.
Consumer price gains in the euro area are now expected to average 1.9% this year instead of the 1.7% previously seen. The Commission also marginally increased its forecast for 2022 by 10 bps to 1.4%.
“We will have to keep a close eye on rising inflation, which is due not least to stronger domestic and foreign demand,” Dombrovskis said.
Uncertainty and risks surrounding the growth outlook are high but remain overall balanced, according to the Commission. It added that consumer price hikes may turn out higher than forecast if supply constraints are more persistent and upward pressures are passed on to customers more strongly.
The next economic forecast is scheduled to be published in November.
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