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對(duì)于美國(guó)大銀行,有一個(gè)好消息和兩個(gè)壞消息

Anne Sraders
2020-07-17

今年以來的各種不利因素使得美國(guó)大銀行的經(jīng)營(yíng)環(huán)境變得極為復(fù)雜。

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華爾街正做最壞的打算。

周二,摩根大通、花旗集團(tuán)和富國(guó)銀行等多家大銀行公布了二季度財(cái)報(bào)。但正如預(yù)期,最令人擔(dān)憂的就是銀行都在積攢貸款損失準(zhǔn)備金,金額創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄。由于預(yù)計(jì)未來幾個(gè)月的公共衛(wèi)生事件會(huì)對(duì)貸款人造成沖擊,摩根大通、花旗集團(tuán)和富國(guó)銀行都為貸款違約預(yù)備了數(shù)十億美元。

“我認(rèn)為,現(xiàn)在能看到的只是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和政府的援助計(jì)劃以及銀行延期,暫時(shí)還沒發(fā)現(xiàn)消費(fèi)者的壓力,”D.A.Davidson高級(jí)研究分析師大衛(wèi)?康拉德告訴《財(cái)富》雜志?!暗艺J(rèn)為銀行的言下之意是‘危機(jī)來了’?!?

貸款損失準(zhǔn)備金“容易引發(fā)關(guān)注,而且面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的高達(dá)數(shù)十億美元,但更值得關(guān)注的是銀行面臨著低利率、宏觀環(huán)境比預(yù)期糟糕,以及與疫情發(fā)展連續(xù)超預(yù)期等不確定性,盈利環(huán)境也越發(fā)復(fù)雜," Bankrate.com網(wǎng)站資深經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師馬克?哈姆里克在一份報(bào)告中告訴《財(cái)富》雜志。

美國(guó)最大的銀行摩根大通撥出104.7億美元用于覆蓋貸款損失。這與今年早些時(shí)候首席執(zhí)行官杰米?戴蒙在年度致股東信中的預(yù)期也保持一致,即最好的情況下,疫情也會(huì)導(dǎo)致“類似2008年全球金融危機(jī)的壓力”

現(xiàn)在,銀行業(yè)都在警告不確定性。首席執(zhí)行官戴蒙警告稱:“盡管近期有些宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)比較積極,政府也采取了重大果斷的行動(dòng),但經(jīng)濟(jì)未來走向仍存在諸多不確定性?!?

好消息

銀行巨頭摩根大通也給投資者帶來巨大的驚喜:營(yíng)收超過預(yù)期,達(dá)到330億美元,較去年同期增長(zhǎng)15%。(與此同時(shí),利潤(rùn)下降了50%至47億美元)。

哪項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)最突出?摩根大通宣布固定收益交易創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地收入73億美元。交易總收入增長(zhǎng)79%,達(dá)到97億美元。危機(jī)期間市場(chǎng)大幅波動(dòng),加上美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不斷向市場(chǎng)注入流動(dòng)性并購(gòu)買企業(yè)債,“投資銀行和資本市場(chǎng)相當(dāng)活躍,大型銀行也增加了資本金,”康拉德指出。

然而,摩根大通等銀行管理層警告稱,交易帶來的巨額收入無法維持,“指導(dǎo)意見是類似情況肯定不會(huì)持續(xù),”康拉德說。

銀行為迎接W型復(fù)蘇做財(cái)務(wù)方面的準(zhǔn)備,但康拉德等分析師指出,盡管管理層預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇不會(huì)非常糟糕,但“為W型復(fù)蘇做準(zhǔn)備時(shí)任何異動(dòng)都需要更多儲(chǔ)備。”尤其隨著美國(guó)冠狀病毒新病例數(shù)激增,銀行對(duì)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表支柱的信心可能“并不像表面一樣”。

值得欣慰的是,花旗集團(tuán)也給華爾街帶來驚喜,收入198億美元(同比增長(zhǎng)約5%),利潤(rùn)13億美元(同比下降73%),兩個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)均超過預(yù)期?;ㄆ煸谑袌?chǎng)和證券領(lǐng)域的收入達(dá)到69億美元,增長(zhǎng)48%,其中最大一塊來自固定收益交易,較去年同期增長(zhǎng)68%。

一個(gè)壞消息

與此同時(shí),富國(guó)銀行情況“有點(diǎn)糟”,康拉德表示。“富國(guó)銀行沒有投資銀行和交易收入補(bǔ)償,而且準(zhǔn)備金不足,只能擴(kuò)大準(zhǔn)備金規(guī)模?!?

該行公布,當(dāng)季虧損24億美元低于預(yù)期,而收入較去年同期(178億美元)下降約17.6%。應(yīng)對(duì)方面,富國(guó)銀行首先宣布派息削減至0.10美元。首席執(zhí)行官查理?沙夫也未掩飾:“我們對(duì)二季度的業(yè)績(jī)和減少派息感到非常失望。與上個(gè)季度的預(yù)期相比,如今對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退持續(xù)時(shí)間和嚴(yán)重程度的看法非常悲觀,因此二季度增加了84億美元的貸款損失準(zhǔn)備金,”他在公布業(yè)績(jī)時(shí)表示。

還有一個(gè)壞消息

然而,即便是盈利超過預(yù)期的兩家銀行,消費(fèi)者收入也大幅下滑。摩根大通的消費(fèi)者和社區(qū)銀行收入下降了9%,花旗集團(tuán)則下降了10%。

“兩家都沒提消費(fèi)者的收入,所以應(yīng)該是負(fù)面居多。我認(rèn)為,考慮到各種政府援助項(xiàng)目,資本市場(chǎng)(收入)與經(jīng)濟(jì)幾乎脫節(jié),也許消費(fèi)者層面更能體現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期里的收入狀況,”康拉德認(rèn)為。從這個(gè)意義上說,“我認(rèn)為未來幾個(gè)季度消費(fèi)者收入將承壓,這可能是關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,決定了未來業(yè)績(jī),”他說。

高盛的分析師們預(yù)期最為悲觀,預(yù)計(jì)二季度銀行盈利將下降69%。盡管周二公布財(cái)報(bào)時(shí)康拉德等分析師表示“受到鼓舞”,但他也指出,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素主要集中在消費(fèi)者收入趨勢(shì)以及“商業(yè)銀行逾期和非應(yīng)計(jì)貸款激增”。

下午花旗集團(tuán)和富國(guó)銀行股價(jià)下跌,摩根大通則上漲了約0.5%。今年三家公司都處于虧損狀態(tài)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Feb

華爾街正做最壞的打算。

周二,摩根大通、花旗集團(tuán)和富國(guó)銀行等多家大銀行公布了二季度財(cái)報(bào)。但正如預(yù)期,最令人擔(dān)憂的就是銀行都在積攢貸款損失準(zhǔn)備金,金額創(chuàng)下紀(jì)錄。由于預(yù)計(jì)未來幾個(gè)月的公共衛(wèi)生事件會(huì)對(duì)貸款人造成沖擊,摩根大通、花旗集團(tuán)和富國(guó)銀行都為貸款違約預(yù)備了數(shù)十億美元。

“我認(rèn)為,現(xiàn)在能看到的只是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和政府的援助計(jì)劃以及銀行延期,暫時(shí)還沒發(fā)現(xiàn)消費(fèi)者的壓力,”D.A.Davidson高級(jí)研究分析師大衛(wèi)?康拉德告訴《財(cái)富》雜志。“但我認(rèn)為銀行的言下之意是‘危機(jī)來了’。”

貸款損失準(zhǔn)備金“容易引發(fā)關(guān)注,而且面臨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的高達(dá)數(shù)十億美元,但更值得關(guān)注的是銀行面臨著低利率、宏觀環(huán)境比預(yù)期糟糕,以及與疫情發(fā)展連續(xù)超預(yù)期等不確定性,盈利環(huán)境也越發(fā)復(fù)雜," Bankrate.com網(wǎng)站資深經(jīng)濟(jì)分析師馬克?哈姆里克在一份報(bào)告中告訴《財(cái)富》雜志。

美國(guó)最大的銀行摩根大通撥出104.7億美元用于覆蓋貸款損失。這與今年早些時(shí)候首席執(zhí)行官杰米?戴蒙在年度致股東信中的預(yù)期也保持一致,即最好的情況下,疫情也會(huì)導(dǎo)致“類似2008年全球金融危機(jī)的壓力”

現(xiàn)在,銀行業(yè)都在警告不確定性。首席執(zhí)行官戴蒙警告稱:“盡管近期有些宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)比較積極,政府也采取了重大果斷的行動(dòng),但經(jīng)濟(jì)未來走向仍存在諸多不確定性。”

好消息

銀行巨頭摩根大通也給投資者帶來巨大的驚喜:營(yíng)收超過預(yù)期,達(dá)到330億美元,較去年同期增長(zhǎng)15%。(與此同時(shí),利潤(rùn)下降了50%至47億美元)。

哪項(xiàng)數(shù)據(jù)最突出?摩根大通宣布固定收益交易創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄地收入73億美元。交易總收入增長(zhǎng)79%,達(dá)到97億美元。危機(jī)期間市場(chǎng)大幅波動(dòng),加上美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不斷向市場(chǎng)注入流動(dòng)性并購(gòu)買企業(yè)債,“投資銀行和資本市場(chǎng)相當(dāng)活躍,大型銀行也增加了資本金,”康拉德指出。

然而,摩根大通等銀行管理層警告稱,交易帶來的巨額收入無法維持,“指導(dǎo)意見是類似情況肯定不會(huì)持續(xù),”康拉德說。

銀行為迎接W型復(fù)蘇做財(cái)務(wù)方面的準(zhǔn)備,但康拉德等分析師指出,盡管管理層預(yù)計(jì)經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇不會(huì)非常糟糕,但“為W型復(fù)蘇做準(zhǔn)備時(shí)任何異動(dòng)都需要更多儲(chǔ)備?!庇绕潆S著美國(guó)冠狀病毒新病例數(shù)激增,銀行對(duì)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表支柱的信心可能“并不像表面一樣”。

值得欣慰的是,花旗集團(tuán)也給華爾街帶來驚喜,收入198億美元(同比增長(zhǎng)約5%),利潤(rùn)13億美元(同比下降73%),兩個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)均超過預(yù)期?;ㄆ煸谑袌?chǎng)和證券領(lǐng)域的收入達(dá)到69億美元,增長(zhǎng)48%,其中最大一塊來自固定收益交易,較去年同期增長(zhǎng)68%。

一個(gè)壞消息

與此同時(shí),富國(guó)銀行情況“有點(diǎn)糟”,康拉德表示?!案粐?guó)銀行沒有投資銀行和交易收入補(bǔ)償,而且準(zhǔn)備金不足,只能擴(kuò)大準(zhǔn)備金規(guī)模。”

該行公布,當(dāng)季虧損24億美元低于預(yù)期,而收入較去年同期(178億美元)下降約17.6%。應(yīng)對(duì)方面,富國(guó)銀行首先宣布派息削減至0.10美元。首席執(zhí)行官查理?沙夫也未掩飾:“我們對(duì)二季度的業(yè)績(jī)和減少派息感到非常失望。與上個(gè)季度的預(yù)期相比,如今對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退持續(xù)時(shí)間和嚴(yán)重程度的看法非常悲觀,因此二季度增加了84億美元的貸款損失準(zhǔn)備金,”他在公布業(yè)績(jī)時(shí)表示。

還有一個(gè)壞消息

然而,即便是盈利超過預(yù)期的兩家銀行,消費(fèi)者收入也大幅下滑。摩根大通的消費(fèi)者和社區(qū)銀行收入下降了9%,花旗集團(tuán)則下降了10%。

“兩家都沒提消費(fèi)者的收入,所以應(yīng)該是負(fù)面居多。我認(rèn)為,考慮到各種政府援助項(xiàng)目,資本市場(chǎng)(收入)與經(jīng)濟(jì)幾乎脫節(jié),也許消費(fèi)者層面更能體現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)周期里的收入狀況,”康拉德認(rèn)為。從這個(gè)意義上說,“我認(rèn)為未來幾個(gè)季度消費(fèi)者收入將承壓,這可能是關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,決定了未來業(yè)績(jī),”他說。

高盛的分析師們預(yù)期最為悲觀,預(yù)計(jì)二季度銀行盈利將下降69%。盡管周二公布財(cái)報(bào)時(shí)康拉德等分析師表示“受到鼓舞”,但他也指出,風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素主要集中在消費(fèi)者收入趨勢(shì)以及“商業(yè)銀行逾期和非應(yīng)計(jì)貸款激增”。

下午花旗集團(tuán)和富國(guó)銀行股價(jià)下跌,摩根大通則上漲了約0.5%。今年三家公司都處于虧損狀態(tài)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Feb

Wall Street is preparing for the worst.

A slew of big banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, reported earnings for the 2nd quarter on Tuesday. But as expected, the biggest concerning sign was the record amounts of loan loss provisions the banks are building to hunker down: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo all reserved billions for future loan defaults, as banks are anticipating the coronavirus crisis will deal a blow to borrowers in the coming months.

"I think what we’re seeing right now is [with] both the Fed and the government programs coupled with deferrals at the banks, we’re not seeing the consumer stress yet," David Konrad, senior research analyst at D.A. Davidson, suggests to Fortune. "But I think what the banks are saying is, 'It’s coming.'"

While the loan loss provisions are "the headline grabber and for good reason given the billions of dollars at stake, the earnings environment for banks is also complicated by low interest rates, a worse-than-expected macro environment and uncertainty associated with COVID-19 which continues to surprise in a negative way," Bankrate.com senior economic analyst Mark Hamrick told Fortune in a note.

JPMorgan Chase, America's largest bank, set aside $10.47 billion to cover loan losses. The provision fits with what CEO Jamie Dimon prophesied in his annual letter to shareholders earlier this year: best case, the pandemic will create "financial stress similar to the global financial crisis of 2008."

Now, banks are warning of uncertainty: CEO Dimon cautioned, "Despite some recent positive macroeconomic data and significant, decisive government action, we still face much uncertainty regarding the future path of the economy," Dimon said in the earnings release.

The good

But the bank titan also gave investors a big surprise: JPMorgan topped revenue estimates, reporting $33 billion, up 15% from the year-ago quarter. (Profits for the bank, meanwhile, dropped over 50% to $4.7 billion).

One standout figure? The bank reported record fixed income trading revenue of $7.3 billion—and total trading revenues were up 79% at $9.7 billion. Massive volatility in the markets amid the crisis, plus an ever-accommodating Fed injecting liquidity in the market and purchasing corporate bonds, has "just created this backdrop of a lot of investment banking and capital markets activity, and almost an accretive capital raise for the bigger banks," notes Konrad.

However, management at banks like JPMorgan have warned the massive revenues from trading won't be sustainable—"The guidance was certainly that that’s not going to continue," Konrad says.

The banks are preparing their balance sheets for a W-shaped recovery, but analysts like Konrad note that while management likely don't anticipate the recovery will go that poorly, "Any variation toward a W would create more reserves going forward." Especially with new cases of the coronavirus spiking across the country, the confidence banks have in their shored-up balance sheets might be "a completely different story."

Citigroup also happily surprised the Street, reporting revenues of $19.8 billion (up roughly 5% from last year) and $1.3 billion in profits (down 73% from a year ago), both above expectations. The bank's markets and securities revenues hit $6.9 billion, up 48%, with the lion's share coming from fixed income trading, up 68% from the year-ago period.

The bad

But Wells Fargo, on the other hand, was "a bit of a mess," Konrad remarks. "They don't have the investment banking and trading offsets, and they were behind in the reserves and had to take a much bigger reserve."

The bank reported a below-estimates $2.4 billion loss for the quarter, while revenues fell roughly 17.6% from the year-ago quarter (reporting $17.8 billion). To boot, the bank announced it will cut its dividend to $0.10. And CEO Charlie Scharf didn't sugar coat it: "We are extremely disappointed in both our second quarter results and our intent to reduce our dividend. Our view of the length and severity of the economic downturn has deteriorated considerably from the assumptions used last quarter, which drove the $8.4 billion addition to our credit loss reserve in the second quarter," he said in the earnings release.

The ugly

Yet even for the two banks that beat earnings estimates, consumer revenues slumped: JPMorgan's consumer and community banking revenues fell 9%, while Citigroup's dropped 10%.

"They both missed on consumer revenues, so that's kind of the opposite effect—I think the capital markets [revenue] was almost a disconnect with the economy given all the government programs, and maybe the consumer side was a little bit more reflective on the revenue side of where we’re at in the economy," Konrad suggests. In that sense, "I think the consumer revenue will weigh on the next couple quarters, so that’s probably the risk factor of otherwise really strong results," he says.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs were expecting the worst: the firm estimated earnings for banks to decline by 69% in the 2nd quarter. And while some analysts like Konrad walked away from earnings on Tuesday feeling "encouraged," he notes the risk factors are concentrated in consumer revenue trends and "the commercial past-dues and non-accruals that jumped up."

Citigroup and Wells Fargo's stocks were down in afternoon trading, while JPMorgan traded up about 0.5%. All three are deeply in the red for the year.

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