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在2015年的巴黎氣候大會(huì)上，美國(guó)政府承諾到2025年前，其溫室氣體排放量要在2005年的基礎(chǔ)上下降26%至28%。雖然特朗普政府一直放話(huà)說(shuō)要退出《巴黎協(xié)定》，但現(xiàn)階段該協(xié)定仍是美國(guó)政府制訂一切氣候計(jì)劃的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

不過(guò)這也僅僅是個(gè)開(kāi)始而已。研究表明，就算各國(guó)都達(dá)到了他們?cè)诎屠璺鍟?huì)上的承諾，要達(dá)到本世紀(jì)內(nèi)將平均氣溫增幅控制在2攝氏度以?xún)?nèi)的目標(biāo)，各國(guó)非得進(jìn)一步削減碳排放才行。因此，美國(guó)氣候政策的目標(biāo)應(yīng)該比《巴黎協(xié)定》更加嚴(yán)格才是。

我們認(rèn)為，要想達(dá)到這個(gè)目標(biāo)，美國(guó)前國(guó)務(wù)卿詹姆斯·貝克與喬治·舒爾茨聯(lián)合提出的方案或許是最具有政治可行性的。他們的方案是對(duì)所有碳排放逐漸加征費(fèi)用，這筆錢(qián)最終會(huì)被返還給全體美國(guó)人民。這樣的話(huà)，一個(gè)四口之家，每年大約會(huì)分到2000美元的“碳紅利”。

根據(jù)他們的方案，每噸碳的“排放費(fèi)”是40美元。貝克和舒爾茨的“碳紅利”計(jì)劃，或許也是當(dāng)今各主要碳排放國(guó)提出的最雄心勃勃的收費(fèi)計(jì)劃了。

美國(guó)氣候領(lǐng)導(dǎo)委員會(huì)近期發(fā)布了一篇題為《超越巴黎協(xié)定》的報(bào)告，這篇報(bào)告量化了可以合理預(yù)期的減排目標(biāo)。該報(bào)告的序言由美國(guó)前國(guó)務(wù)卿喬治·舒爾茨、前財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)勞倫斯·薩默斯、前環(huán)保署署長(zhǎng)克里斯汀·托德·惠特曼、前沃爾瑪董事長(zhǎng)羅布·沃頓以及我們兩人共同撰寫(xiě)。

根據(jù)氣候領(lǐng)導(dǎo)委員會(huì)的分析，如果奧巴馬時(shí)代的所有氣候法規(guī)都保持不變，到2025年，美國(guó)的溫室氣體排放量將減少大約18%。相比之下，如果“貝克-舒爾茨計(jì)劃”得以實(shí)施，那么到2025年，美國(guó)將實(shí)現(xiàn)大約32%的減排，從而大大超過(guò)美國(guó)在巴黎峰會(huì)上的承諾。

非盈利組織“未來(lái)資源”（Resources for the Future）根據(jù)“貝克-舒爾茨計(jì)劃”，基于2021年至2035年間征稅碳排放稅的假設(shè)，對(duì)該計(jì)劃進(jìn)行了數(shù)學(xué)建模，并按并按3%到6%的年通脹率水平進(jìn)行調(diào)整后。該模型發(fā)現(xiàn)，按照該計(jì)劃，到2035年，美國(guó)與能源相關(guān)的二氧化碳排放量將比2005年下降41%到47%，從而大大提高了美國(guó)的環(huán)保水平。

很顯然，貝爾和舒爾茨的“碳紅利”計(jì)劃是一項(xiàng)極為野心勃勃的氣候解決方案。它在政治上也是最可行的，因?yàn)樗鉀Q了所有主要利益相關(guān)方的合理關(guān)切，并使各方都能實(shí)現(xiàn)重要?jiǎng)倮?

這個(gè)方案的基本理念已經(jīng)獲得了許多行業(yè)的重量級(jí)企業(yè)領(lǐng)袖的支持，包括埃克森美孚、殼牌、AECOM、安聯(lián)、AT&T、Exelon、First Solar、通用汽車(chē)、強(qiáng)生、大都會(huì)人壽、寶潔、百事可樂(lè)、桑坦德、施耐德電氣和聯(lián)合利華等等。這些公司也都是美國(guó)氣候領(lǐng)導(dǎo)委員會(huì)的創(chuàng)始成員。

“貝克-舒爾茨計(jì)劃”也得到了環(huán)保組織和各個(gè)政治派別的意見(jiàn)領(lǐng)袖的支持。這還是美國(guó)歷史上，各方面首次廣泛地聯(lián)合起來(lái)，支持一個(gè)具體的全國(guó)性的氣候解決方案，而且支持它的人還越來(lái)越多。

該計(jì)劃之所以具有廣泛吸引力，是因?yàn)樗诟鞣降耐讌f(xié)，特別是通過(guò)繳納高額且不斷上漲的費(fèi)用來(lái)讓政府減緩監(jiān)管壓力，因而這種提議同時(shí)打動(dòng)了環(huán)保人士、企業(yè)和保守派。更重要的是，它將所有“碳紅利”直接惠及全體美國(guó)人民。這樣一來(lái)，普通美國(guó)人既幫助解決了氣候變化挑戰(zhàn)，也享受了經(jīng)濟(jì)上的利益。

而各方之所以能達(dá)成這樣的妥協(xié)，也因?yàn)樵摲桨傅暮诵哪康娜匀皇黔h(huán)保，從而使得該方案的其他部分具有了政治可行性。正因?yàn)樗跍p排上是有效的，所以足以取代其他更具侵略性的減排方案。這一點(diǎn)對(duì)企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)是很有吸引力的。在所有經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家看來(lái)，基于市場(chǎng)的碳排放稅也是最具成本效益的解決方案。

了確保達(dá)到預(yù)期減排目標(biāo)，“貝克-舒爾茨計(jì)劃”可能還需要一種環(huán)境保障機(jī)制。根據(jù)該機(jī)制，如果關(guān)鍵的減排標(biāo)準(zhǔn)沒(méi)有達(dá)到，企業(yè)需上繳的碳排放費(fèi)將增長(zhǎng)得更快。同時(shí)，為了保護(hù)美國(guó)企業(yè)的國(guó)際競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力，它還應(yīng)該包含一個(gè)邊境地區(qū)的碳排放調(diào)整機(jī)制。

這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃受到的歡迎也進(jìn)一步提高了它的可行性。根據(jù)Hill+Knowlton公司進(jìn)行的一項(xiàng)全國(guó)調(diào)查顯示，美國(guó)民眾支持與反對(duì)該計(jì)劃的比例達(dá)到了2:1，該計(jì)劃在共和黨中也有23%的支持率。在“千禧一代”（他們馬上將成為美國(guó)最大的選民群體），支持與反對(duì)的比例更是超過(guò)了4:1。

這些都表明，“貝克-舒爾茨計(jì)劃”已漸漸成為一項(xiàng)美國(guó)社會(huì)的共識(shí)，反映了美國(guó)的政界還是理智的。它還表明，美國(guó)要想超過(guò)在巴黎峰會(huì)上的承諾，保持在氣候議題上的全球領(lǐng)袖地位，是有一條現(xiàn)實(shí)的路可以走的。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

本文作者珍妮特·耶倫曾任美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)主席；泰德·哈希蒂現(xiàn)為美國(guó)氣候領(lǐng)導(dǎo)委員會(huì)主席兼CEO。

譯者：樸成奎

At the 2015 Paris Climate Conference, the United States committed to reduce its net greenhouse gas emissions by 26% to 28% below 2005 levels by 2025. Even though the Trump administration has announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris agreement, it remains the benchmark by which any U.S. climate plan is judged.

But it is only a starting point. Even if all nations meet their Paris commitments, the best studies indicate that far greater emissions reductions will be necessary for the world to maintain global temperatures below the agreed-upon 2 degrees Celsius threshold. The goal of U.S. climate policy should therefore be to exceed Paris.

We believe the most politically viable way to accomplish this is a plan co-authored by former Republican Secretaries of State James Baker and George Shultz. The Baker-Shultz plan is based on a gradually rising fee applied to all carbon emissions, with all the revenue rebated directly to the American people. A family of four would receive approximately $2,000 per year in “carbon dividends.”

The Baker-Shultz Carbon Dividends plan—starting with a carbon fee of $40 per ton—would be the most ambitious carbon price enacted by any major emitter nation.

A report entitled Exceeding Paris, released recently by the Climate Leadership Council, quantifies the emissions reductions that could reasonably be expected. Its foreword is co-authored by former Secretary of State George Shultz, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, former EPA Administrator Christine Todd Whitman, and former Walmart Chairman Rob Walton, as well as the two of us.

All Obama-era climate regulations, had they remained in place, would have achieved approximately 18% in greenhouse gas reductions by 2025, according to the council’s analysis. In comparison, the Baker-Shultz plan would achieve an approximately 32% reduction by 2025, thereby exceeding our Paris commitment by a wide margin.

As also discussed in our report, the nonprofit research organization Resources for the Future modeled the Baker-Shultz plan through 2035 based on a carbon tax starting in 2021 and a range of inflation-adjusted annual escalation rates from 3% to 6%. It found that U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions would decline to a level of 41% to 47% below 2005 levels by 2035, also raising the environmental bar substantially.

It’s clear that the Baker-Shultz Carbon Dividends Plan is the most environmentally ambitious climate solution. It’s also the most politically viable because it addresses the legitimate concerns of all key stakeholders in the climate debate and enables each to realize an important victory.

A broad coalition of business sector leaders supports the general outlines of the plan. Among them: BP, ExxonMobil, Shell, and Total, as well as AECOM, Allianz, AT&T, Exelon, First Solar, General Motors, Johnson & Johnson, Metlife, Procter & Gamble, PepsiCo, Santander, Schneider Electric, and Unilever. Each is a founding member of the Climate Leadership Council.

The Baker-Shultz framework also enjoys support from environmental organizations and opinion leaders from across the political spectrum. This is the broadest coalition in U.S. history to come together in support of a concrete federal climate solution, and it continues to grow.

The plan’s broad appeal is based on a series of grand bargains, including trading a robust and rising carbon price for regulatory relief, thereby appealing to environmentalists, businesses, and conservatives at the same time. Just as important, it appeals to the American people by rebating all of the revenue raised directly to them in an equal per capita amount. This would allow the majority of American families to economically benefit from helping solve climate change.

At the heart of this grand bargain is the environmental ambition of the Baker-Shultz plan, which unlocks the political viability of its other components. Its effectiveness in reducing emissions justifies the phase-out of other carbon regulations that are far more intrusive. This provides a major draw for businesses. The plan’s reliance on a market-based carbon tax also makes it—in the view of economists of all stripes—the most cost-effective solution.

To ensure that intended emissions reductions are met, the Baker-Shultz plan may include an environmental assurance mechanism under which the carbon fee would increase faster if key emissions reductions benchmarks are not met. And to protect the international competitiveness of American firms, it includes a border carbon adjustment.

The plan’s popularity enhances its viability. A national poll by Hill+Knowlton, released in full today, finds that the American public supports the Baker-Shultz plan by a 2-1 margin, and by a 23-point margin among Republicans. Among millennials—soon to be the largest voting cohort—support exceeds 4-1.

All of this suggests that the Baker-Shultz plan is emerging as a consensus national climate solution, reflecting the sensible center of American politics. It also demonstrates that there is a realistic path for the United States to exceed its Paris climate commitment and restore its position as a global climate leader.

Janet L. Yellen is the former Chair of the Federal Reserve. Ted Halstead is Chairman & CEO of the Climate Leadership Council.