自動化取代傳統(tǒng)職業(yè)之勢不可逆，哪些國家抗風(fēng)險能力更強？
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自動化或?qū)?dǎo)致成百上千萬的工作消失，但有些國家的就業(yè)市場卻具備較強的抵御機器人沖擊的能力。 以上結(jié)論是基于經(jīng)濟合作與發(fā)展組織（OECD）的一項研究而做出的。經(jīng)合組織是世界三十多個富裕國家的政府間國際組織。該組織運用了32個成員國2012年的數(shù)據(jù)，來評估不同國家就業(yè)市場抵御自動化沖擊的能力。 研究人員盧比卡·內(nèi)德科斯加和格蘭達(dá)·奎恩蒂尼寫道：“各國的自動化發(fā)展水平存在較大差異?？偟膩碚f，與東歐、南歐、德國、智利和日本等國相比，盎格魯撒克遜地區(qū)、北歐國家和荷蘭的工作崗位可自動化程度較低?！?/p> 研究人員發(fā)現(xiàn)，在斯洛伐克的所有就業(yè)崗位中，有33%是可高度自動化的。所謂可高度自動化，就是說這些工作至少有70%以上的可能性被自動化取代。這個比例在斯洛文尼亞是25%，在希臘是23%。 而在經(jīng)合組織國家中，挪威的就業(yè)崗位可被自動化的比例最低，只有6%的就業(yè)崗位可被高度自動化，其次是芬蘭（7%）和瑞典（8%），均低于經(jīng)合組織32個成員國14%的平均水平。 那么美國的情況如何呢？ 研究人員表示，美國約有10%的工作面臨被自動化取代的風(fēng)險。另外，自動化也會造成其他一些工作崗位的重大變革。但總體來說，美國仍然是經(jīng)合組織中受自動化影響最低的國家之一。不過美國仍有40%的工作存在較高的被自動化取代的風(fēng)險或發(fā)生重大變革的風(fēng)險，因而自動化的威脅即便在美國，也是一個異常嚴(yán)峻的挑戰(zhàn)。 |
Automation may render millions of jobs obsolete—but some countries may be in a better position to face the robots than others. That’s based on research from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a symposium of largely wealthier nations, using 2012 data from 32 of its members to gauge the risk of job automation on different countries. “The variance in automatability across countries is large,” the researchers Ljubica Nedelkoska and Glenda Quintini wrote. “More generally, jobs in Anglo-Saxon, Nordic countries and the Netherlands are less automatable than jobs in Eastern European countries, South European countries, Germany, Chile and Japan.” At one end of the spectrum, the researchers found that 33% of all jobs in Slovakia are considered highly automatable—or having a 70% or more chance of being automated. That’s followed by 25% of the jobs in Slovenia, and 23% of the jobs in Greece. Norway, on the other hand, is the best positioned. About 6% of jobs in the Scandinavian nation are rated as highly automatable, followed by 7% in Finland, and 8% in Sweden. That’s compared to 14% of jobs across the 32 nations researched. So where does the United States stand? About 10% of jobs in the U.S. are at high risk, the researchers found. When adding in jobs that are also at risk of changing significantly due to automation, the U.S. will be considered among the least affected in OECD countries. Though, with nearly 40% of jobs in the country either with a high risk of automation or risk of significant change, the magnitude of the shift is daunting nonetheless. |
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不過這份研究的結(jié)論還是要比此前的一些分析更加樂觀。牛津大學(xué)2013年曾做過一份被多次引用的研究，該研究指出，美國有47%的工作有較高的被自動化取代的風(fēng)險。 不過在經(jīng)合組織的這份研究中，依然能看到一些相同的趨勢，比如最容易被取代的工作仍是那些僅需要較低的教育水平和較低薪酬的工作，如制造業(yè)和農(nóng)業(yè)工作等。從事這些工作的往往是青少年。 研究人員還警告道： “在解讀與自動化風(fēng)險有關(guān)的數(shù)據(jù)時，必須注意的是，自動化的真實風(fēng)險是很容易受到變量影響的，排在國家排行榜前列和末尾的國家雖然排名相對固定，但處于中游或平均水平的國家卻相對存在更大的不確定性。”（財富中文網(wǎng)） 譯者：樸成奎 |
Still, the research is perhaps more optimistic than some that have come before it. A highly-cited Oxford University study from 2013 found that 47% of jobs in the U.S. are considered highly automatable. Though some trends remain the same: the jobs considered most automatable are those that require low levels of education and are often low paying. That includes positions in the manufacturing industry or agriculture industry. Those positions are also often those occupied by teenagers. But the researchers also added a caveat. “Caution is needed when interpreting the numbers related to the risk of automation: the actual risk of automation is subject to significant variation and, while country rankings at the top and the bottom of the scale are robust to methodological changes, there is more uncertainty for countries closer to the cross-country average,” they cautioned. |
