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預(yù)測(cè)商業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的藝術(shù):為什么“非專(zhuān)家”做的更好

預(yù)測(cè)商業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的藝術(shù):為什么“非專(zhuān)家”做的更好

Vikram Mansharamani 2014年07月23日
所謂術(shù)業(yè)有專(zhuān)攻。在外科手術(shù),科學(xué)研究等領(lǐng)域,專(zhuān)業(yè)化是成功的關(guān)鍵。但就預(yù)測(cè)商業(yè)趨勢(shì)和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)而言,專(zhuān)家們的預(yù)測(cè)往往跟現(xiàn)實(shí)有著云泥之別,讓人大跌眼鏡。原因何在?

????這些事例體現(xiàn)了專(zhuān)業(yè)化的一大缺陷。我并不是說(shuō)專(zhuān)業(yè)化本身有問(wèn)題。在許多工作和領(lǐng)域中(外科、科學(xué)研究等),專(zhuān)業(yè)化是成功的關(guān)鍵。但在應(yīng)對(duì)不確定性和預(yù)測(cè)可能出現(xiàn)的情況方面,我更愿意讓多面手來(lái)負(fù)責(zé)——這類(lèi)人的經(jīng)驗(yàn)多種多樣,足以緩解上文中提到的“自認(rèn)為手拿錘子”所引發(fā)的問(wèn)題。

????對(duì)企業(yè)中各個(gè)層次的管理者來(lái)說(shuō),以上事例的一個(gè)明確含義就是要尊重和珍視那些看似不相關(guān)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。不要把應(yīng)聘財(cái)務(wù)職位的營(yíng)銷(xiāo)事務(wù)管理人員拒之門(mén)外,也不要認(rèn)為零售公司負(fù)責(zé)人不能經(jīng)營(yíng)建筑公司。培養(yǎng)未來(lái)負(fù)責(zé)人時(shí),現(xiàn)任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)應(yīng)當(dāng)鼓勵(lì)他們擁有多種多樣的經(jīng)驗(yàn),而不是局限于某個(gè)專(zhuān)業(yè)領(lǐng)域。

????本文作者維克拉姆?曼沙拉馬尼博士在耶魯大學(xué)(Yale University)教授倫理、政治和經(jīng)濟(jì)課,他是哈佛大學(xué)肯尼迪政府學(xué)院(Harvard Kennedy School)穆薩瓦-拉赫瑪尼(Mossavar-Rahmani)商業(yè)與政府中心高級(jí)研究員,著有《盛衰學(xué):在金融泡沫破裂前發(fā)現(xiàn)它們》(Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst)一書(shū)。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Charlie

????These stories illustrate a major downside of specialization. I don’t mean to suggest that specialization unto itself is bad; in many functions and domains (surgery, scientific research, etc …), it is essential to success. But when it comes to navigating uncertainty and contemplating probabilistic scenarios, I’d rather have a generalist in charge—someone who has a breadth of experience diverse enough to mitigate the problematic hammer-carrying default setting.

????One obvious implication for managers at all levels of an organization is to respect and value seemingly unrelated experiences. Don’t dismiss the marketing executive applying for a finance position or the retail leader who thinks she can run a construction firm. And in grooming future leaders, current leaders should encourage a diversity of experience rather than narrow specialization.

????Vikram Mansharamani, PhD, is a lecturer at Yale University in the Program on Ethics, Politics, & Economics, a Senior Fellow at the Mossavar-Rahmani Center for Business & Government at the Harvard Kennedy School, and the author of Boombustology: Spotting Financial Bubbles Before They Burst.

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