摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙最近儼然成了特朗普眼中的大紅人。此前，特朗普曾盛情邀請(qǐng)戴蒙出任新一屆政府的財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)，雖然戴蒙拒絕了，但這說明了他在特朗普心中的份量。而戴蒙上周寫給股東的信也頗像是一份寫給特朗普的諫言書。

所以當(dāng)戴蒙上周四上午出席摩根大通的電視電話會(huì)議，討論該公司第一季度的財(cái)務(wù)業(yè)績(jī)時(shí)，華爾街分析師們紛紛抓住這次機(jī)會(huì)向他發(fā)問，想從他的回答中抓住一些蛛絲馬跡，看特朗普下一步的施政重點(diǎn)是什么。

從今年第一季度的收益看，摩根大通無疑是“川普熱”的受益者。自特朗普當(dāng)選以來，摩根大通的股價(jià)已經(jīng)大漲了21%。今年第一季度，摩根大通的市場(chǎng)交易收益也比上年同期上漲了14%。公司總收益上漲6%，達(dá)247億美元，超過了分析師的預(yù)期；其利潤(rùn)也上漲了17%，達(dá)到64億美元。

目前對(duì)于摩根大通來說，最重要的問題就是特朗普承諾的經(jīng)濟(jì)改革是否能夠迅速推行，這樣才能保持住摩根大通當(dāng)前旺盛的增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭。而這也是投資者們最關(guān)心的問題——尤其是特朗普還在將萬眾期待的稅收改革的啟動(dòng)時(shí)間不斷延后。

戴蒙在本周四的收益電話會(huì)議上對(duì)記者們表示：“我不想妄下斷言”。雖然特朗普政府的醫(yī)保法案沒能在國會(huì)獲得通過，令許多投資者深感不安，但戴蒙依然認(rèn)為特朗普的執(zhí)政前景是光明的。他認(rèn)為在經(jīng)濟(jì)改革方面，真正的進(jìn)展可能要等本月底，也就是特朗普?qǐng)?zhí)政滿百天后才會(huì)啟動(dòng)。

戴蒙在會(huì)上向分析師們表示：“你們可能都以為新總統(tǒng)上臺(tái)后馬上就會(huì)實(shí)施改革。實(shí)際上，新總統(tǒng)執(zhí)政百天之后的那9個(gè)月才是一個(gè)‘做香腸’的過程。事情可能有高潮也有低谷，有贏也有輸。不過特朗普的經(jīng)改日程是有益于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的——比如稅收改革、基礎(chǔ)建設(shè)和監(jiān)管改革等等。這是好事，如果一切順利的話，這些改革一旦啟動(dòng)，會(huì)有益于全體美國人?！?/p>

不過戴蒙也提醒道，投資者們要打起精神為下一階段做好準(zhǔn)備，因?yàn)槿A盛頓總是不可避免地會(huì)傳來各種利好和利空的消息，因此“川普熱”也必然會(huì)讓位于總體的市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)?！八粫?huì)是一帆風(fēng)順的，如果你那樣認(rèn)為就太傻了。”

大體看來，戴蒙對(duì)特朗普政府目前的執(zhí)政狀態(tài)還是滿意的。當(dāng)被問到特朗普對(duì)聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)中暫時(shí)空缺的幾個(gè)位子有何意向時(shí)，戴蒙竟然先將從摩根大通的老對(duì)頭——高盛——走出去的新政府首席經(jīng)濟(jì)顧問和財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)恭維了一番：“我認(rèn)為加里·科恩和史蒂芬·姆努欽都在做著正確的事情。他們想找到合適的人選填補(bǔ)這些職位，我猜他們正在跟很多人談話?！?/p>

戴蒙也再次強(qiáng)調(diào)道，在拒絕了財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)一職后，他也不會(huì)參加聯(lián)邦儲(chǔ)備委員會(huì)。他開玩笑地說道：“我不感興趣?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：樸成奎

The CEO of J.P. Morgan has recently become a sort of Wall Street ambassador to Donald Trump: Jamie Dimon was offered, but declined, his own White House Cabinet job, and the banker's annual letter to shareholders last week read like an advice manual for the President.

So when Dimon appeared on the J.P. Morgan earnings call Thursday morning to discuss the bank's first-quarter results, Wall Street analysts naturally treated it as an opportunity to ask the oracle to prognosticate about the next chapter of Trump's presidency.

The bank's earnings, after all, showed just how big a beneficiary J.P. Morgan Chase (jpm, -1.41%) has been of the "Trump Bump," which has not only propelled J.P. Morgan's stock price 21% higher since the election, but also lifted the company's markets trading revenues 14% in the first quarter compared to the prior year. That helped the bank boost total revenue for the period by 6%, above analysts' expectations, to $24.7 billion, while its profits rose 17%, to $6.4 billion.

The question for J.P Morgan now, and the one on investors' minds, is whether the President's promised economic reforms, which have driven the market's rally, will kick in soon enough to sustain it—especially given that Trump keeps pushing back the timeline for his highly anticipated tax reform plan.

"I don't want to put odds on it," Dimon said to reporters on the call Thursday. But though the administration's recent failure to pass its health care bill has made investors more skittish, Dimon later predicted that better days are ahead for Trump's presidency. In fact, the CEO expects the real progress to start as early as later this month, when Trump marks his first 100 days in the White House.

"You should all expect that when you have a new President and he gets going, the nine months after the 100 days is going to be a sausage-making period," Dimon told analysts during the earnings call. "There will be ups and downs, wins and losses, stuff like that. But it is a pro-growth agenda—tax, infrastructure, regulatory reform—and that is a good thing, all things being equal, and we think if that took place it would help all Americans."

Still, Dimon hinted that investors should brace themselves for this next phase, as the Trump Bump is likely to give way to general market bumpiness when more surprises and upsets inevitably emerge from Washington. "It’s not expected to be smooth sailing, that would just be silly," he warned.

Overall, though, Dimon seems content with the state of the Trump administration. Asked about Trump's plans to fill the remaining vacant positions on the Federal Reserve Board, Dimon even went so far as to compliment members of the Trump administration who hail from J.P. Morgan's arch rival, Goldman Sachs (gs, -1.08%). "I think Gary Cohn and Steven Mnuchin are doing the right thing," Dimon said, speaking of Trump's chief economic advisor and Treasury secretary, respectively. "They want to find the right people for those jobs. I gather they are talking to lots of people."

Dimon made clear, however, that he himself, who had been recently recruited for the Treasury post, was not one of the potential candidates: "I'm not interested," he joked.