????就經(jīng)濟(jì)擴(kuò)張期而言，美國(guó)這次的持續(xù)時(shí)間可謂相當(dāng)“長(zhǎng)”。二戰(zhàn)以來(lái)，兩次衰退之間的平均間隔約為58個(gè)月。而本輪經(jīng)濟(jì)周期已經(jīng)延續(xù)了81個(gè)月，人們自然想知道經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)不會(huì)馬上滑坡。

????同時(shí)，一組令人擔(dān)憂的海外經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)顯示，新興市場(chǎng)的問(wèn)題開始影響發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家：

????·設(shè)在威斯巴登的德國(guó)聯(lián)邦統(tǒng)計(jì)局10月8日公布，作為歐洲實(shí)力最強(qiáng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)體，8月份德國(guó)出口額環(huán)比下降5.2%。

????·英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速一直高于大多數(shù)發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家，但近期數(shù)據(jù)表明，英國(guó)8月份建筑業(yè)產(chǎn)值下降4.3%，創(chuàng)2012年以來(lái)最大單月跌幅。

????·日本的情形也好不到哪里去。今年夏季日本工業(yè)產(chǎn)值大幅下降，有些人據(jù)此認(rèn)為這個(gè)全球第三大經(jīng)濟(jì)體已經(jīng)重新陷入衰退。

????美國(guó)前財(cái)長(zhǎng)拉里·薩默斯也認(rèn)為今后全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將遇到更多麻煩。上周四，薩默斯在一篇題為《全球經(jīng)濟(jì)著實(shí)危險(xiǎn)》的專欄文章中指出，經(jīng)濟(jì)越發(fā)失衡，人口增長(zhǎng)緩慢，需要加強(qiáng)金融監(jiān)管，而且眼下的創(chuàng)新并沒(méi)有非常明顯的勞動(dòng)密集型特征，這些都表明經(jīng)濟(jì)增速將放慢。

????花旗集團(tuán)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家威廉·布伊特也提出了全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退是否即將或已經(jīng)到來(lái)的問(wèn)題。

????布伊特對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的定義和對(duì)美國(guó)這樣一個(gè)單一國(guó)家的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的定義不同。雖然他覺(jué)得全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速并未下降，但他確實(shí)認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率已經(jīng)低于其潛在增速，而且問(wèn)題正在變得越發(fā)嚴(yán)重。上周，他在寫給客戶的報(bào)告中指出：

????“盡管全球?qū)嶋H產(chǎn)出呈正增長(zhǎng)態(tài)勢(shì)，但已經(jīng)低于其潛在增速。我們對(duì)后者的估算值為3%，這就是說(shuō)產(chǎn)出缺口正在擴(kuò)大。因此，如果產(chǎn)出增長(zhǎng)率低于潛在增速的情況再持續(xù)一年，就意味著按我們的這兩項(xiàng)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會(huì)重新陷入衰退。”

????薩默斯認(rèn)為，出現(xiàn)令人擔(dān)心的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)只是經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入困境的開始，因?yàn)橐l(fā)他所說(shuō)的“長(zhǎng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)停滯”的因素都不會(huì)很快消失。他指出，2008年以來(lái)，“新興市場(chǎng)的強(qiáng)勁表現(xiàn)”是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的唯一動(dòng)力。然而，目前投資正在迅速向發(fā)達(dá)債券市場(chǎng)回流，從而進(jìn)一步壓低利率。薩默斯寫道：

????“沒(méi)時(shí)間洋洋得意了。有人認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)緩慢只是2008年金融危機(jī)的短暫后遺癥，這種想法實(shí)在荒謬。最新數(shù)據(jù)表明，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增速正在下降，歐洲和日本已經(jīng)開始減速。全球經(jīng)濟(jì)瀕臨停滯時(shí)的最主要危險(xiǎn)就是衰退。”

????薩默斯在文章中稱，富裕國(guó)家需要率先采取防范措施。第一步就是將利率保持在接近于零的水平，直到出現(xiàn)明顯的通脹跡象。但更重要的是執(zhí)行“擴(kuò)張性財(cái)政政策”，或者說(shuō)像美國(guó)、德國(guó)和英國(guó)政府那樣，借助全球經(jīng)濟(jì)形成的低利率環(huán)境來(lái)籌措資金，并將其投入基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施領(lǐng)域。

????可惜的是，對(duì)薩默斯的擁躉來(lái)說(shuō)，政府支出看來(lái)不會(huì)在短期內(nèi)上升。多年來(lái)，德國(guó)政府一直不同意提高支出水平，美國(guó)和英國(guó)的保守黨也在竭盡全力地削減預(yù)算，而不是提高開支水平。

????薩默斯的觀點(diǎn)還面臨著另外一個(gè)不利因素，那就是美國(guó)并沒(méi)有像世界其他地區(qū)那樣出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩跡象。當(dāng)然，9月份就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)沒(méi)有達(dá)到預(yù)期，一年來(lái)標(biāo)普500指數(shù)也跌跌不休。但在2015年，美國(guó)平均每個(gè)月能創(chuàng)造差不多20萬(wàn)個(gè)就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)，房地產(chǎn)交易和新開工面積均保持上升勢(shì)頭，汽車銷量也剛剛刷新10年來(lái)的最高紀(jì)錄。

????大多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家仍認(rèn)為，至少一年內(nèi)美國(guó)不會(huì)陷入衰退。上個(gè)月，彭博采訪了31位經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，其中只有八人預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)將在2018年以前出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。但考慮到新興市場(chǎng)的經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題已經(jīng)傳導(dǎo)到日本和歐洲，我們有理由對(duì)主流觀點(diǎn)保留一點(diǎn)懷疑。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????校對(duì)：詹妮

????As far as economic expansions go, our’s is pretty long in the tooth. Since World War II, the average length of time between recessions is about 58 months. With the current cycle clocking in at 81, it’s natural to wonder if the next downturn is imminent.

????Meanwhile, a worrying level of data from abroad shows that the troubles in emerging markets are beginning to affect the developed world:

????? In Germany, Europe’s strongest economy, exports fell 5.2% in August from the previous month, the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden announced on Thursday.

????? In the U.K., where growth had been outstripping most of the rest of the developed world, recent data shows output in Britain’s construction sector plunged by 4.3% in August, the sharpest monthly drop since 2012.

????? In Japan, things don’t look much better. Serious declines in industrial output over the summer suggest to some that the world’s third largest economy has already fallen back into recession.

????Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers also sees global economic trouble up ahead. In an op-ed published on Thursday titled “The global economy is in serious danger,” he argues that rising economic inequality, slowing population growth, and the increased need for financial regulation, and the fact that the innovation that is taking place isn’t very labor intensive all point to a slowdown.

????Another analyst asking whether we are headed for, or already in, a global recession is Willem Buiter, Chief Economist at Citigroup.

????Buiter relies on a different definition of global recession than what is used to define such an event in a single advanced economy like the United States. While he doesn’t see global growth contracting, he does believe that growth has already fallen below its potential, and that the problem is only going to get worse. In a note to clients this week, Buiter writes:

????“Actual global output growth, although positive . . . is already below likely potential global output growth, which we estimate at 3%, meaning that the output gap is widening. Another year of sub- potential growth would therefore imply that the world economy would probably be back in recession according to both our criteria.”

????Summers thinks the worrying economic data we are seeing is just the beginning of troubling economic times, because none of the factors contributing to what he has called “secular stagnation” are set to dissipate anytime soon. He argues that the only thing propping up the global economy since 2008 has been “the strength of emerging markets.” But investment there is quickly reversing course, finding its way back into developed bond markets, pushing interest rates even lower than they already are. Summers writes:

????“This is no time for complacency. The idea that slow growth is only a temporary consequence of the 2008 financial crisis is absurd. The latest data suggest growth is slowing in the United States, and it is already slow in Europe and Japan. A global economy near stall speed is one where the primary danger is recession.”

????In his op-ed, Summers argues that the wealthy world needs to take the lead in preventing this outcome, first by keeping interest rates near zero until there is a clear sign of inflation. More important, however, is to implement “expansionary fiscal policy,” or borrow at the low rates the global economy is offering governments like the U.S., Germany and the U.K. to invest in infrastructure.

????Unfortunately for those who agree with Summers, more government spending doesn’t appear to be coming anytime soon. For years, Germany has resisted calls to spend more, while the conservative parties in the United States and the U.K. are doing their best to cut budgets, not expand them.

????Further hurting Summers’ case is the fact that the United States is not seeing the same signs of slowing growth as the rest of the world. Sure, September’s jobs report was disappointing, and the S&P 500 has been moving sideways all year. But job growth in 2015 still sits at just under 200,000 new positions per month, while home sales and housing starts figures have been on the upswing. And auto sales just hit a new 10-year high.

????Most economists still see the U.S. avoiding recession for at least another year. Last month, Bloomberg surveyed a group of 31 economists, and eight predicted that a recession would hit the United States before 2018. But as troubles in emerging markets bring economic woes to Japan and Europe, it makes sense to question the conventional wisdom.