????最近美國股市持續(xù)下跌，原因是人們擔(dān)心美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)上調(diào)利率的時(shí)間會(huì)早于預(yù)期，也許會(huì)在6月份。確實(shí)，《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》也在周三的報(bào)道中指出，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在考慮在下次公布貨幣政策聲明時(shí)拋出一個(gè)關(guān)鍵詞。這或許會(huì)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)最快在今年年中加息鋪平道路。

????那么，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)會(huì)在什么時(shí)候動(dòng)手呢？我的看法是，不會(huì)像人們所想的那么早。短時(shí)間內(nèi)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不會(huì)提高利率（至少不會(huì)在6月份，甚至是今年夏天），原因如下：

????The stock market has been falling recently on fears that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates sooner than some thought, perhaps as early as June. Indeed, on Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal reported that the Fed is thinking about dropping a key word in its next policy statement. That might pave the way for a hike as soon as the middle of the year.

????So, when will the Fed pull the trigger? My bet: It’s won’t happen as soon as people think. Here are four reasons the Fed is not going to raise rates anytime soon (or at least not as soon as June, or even this summer):

????1. 利率仍有下調(diào)空間

????許多人都說，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)需要提高利率，因?yàn)槌酥鈩e無選擇。他們的依據(jù)是，如果美國經(jīng)濟(jì)再次陷入衰退，或者只是出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)滑坡，現(xiàn)在不加息的話美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)就無法通過下調(diào)利率來提振經(jīng)濟(jì)。

????長期以來，人們一直認(rèn)為利率不能低于零，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家用“下限”來描述這種觀點(diǎn)。但正如最近我們所見，情況并非如此。瑞士央行已將短期利率降至負(fù)0.75%。許多瑞士經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家則認(rèn)為，該行應(yīng)將其定為負(fù)1.5%。同時(shí)，許多歐洲國家目前也在發(fā)行負(fù)利率債券。

????因此，下限或許存在，但這個(gè)下限并不是零。也就是說，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)不必只是為了方便以后降息而提高利率。

????1. Rates can still go lower

????Many people say the Fed needs to raise interest rates because they have no where to go but up. If we were to run into another recession in the U.S. or just an economic downturn, the argument goes, then the Fed would not be able to lower interest rates to give the economy a boost.

????The "lower bound" is a term economists use to describe the long-held belief that interest rates can't go below zero. But, as we have seen recently, that's not true. Currently, Switzerland's central bank has set its short-term interest rates at negative 0.75%. Many economists there think it should be set as low as negative 1.5%. And plenty of European countries are now selling bonds with negative interest rates.

????So, there might be a lower bound, but it's not zero, meaning the Fed doesn't need to raise interest rates just so they can cut them later.