????過(guò)去幾個(gè)月，中國(guó)官方媒體一直大肆報(bào)道中國(guó)的“新常態(tài)”，并透露政府可能將2015年的GDP增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)定為7％。新華社20日撰文稱：“中國(guó)的超高速增長(zhǎng)期已經(jīng)過(guò)去，我們得接受這一點(diǎn)?！?/p>

????早在2014年伊始，中國(guó)就在淡化自身增長(zhǎng)潛力。2014年早些時(shí)候，李克強(qiáng)總理宣布，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)為7.5％，僅一天后，財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)樓繼偉就表示，增長(zhǎng)7.2％就很好了。

????以花長(zhǎng)春為首的野村證券香港分析師團(tuán)隊(duì)，詳細(xì)說(shuō)明了中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)繼續(xù)放緩可能會(huì)帶來(lái)的局面?？梢哉f(shuō)是“塞翁失馬，焉知非福”。

????花長(zhǎng)春寫(xiě)道：“鑒于地方政府債務(wù)控制收緊、房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)調(diào)整以及去杠桿化等深層次的國(guó)內(nèi)挑戰(zhàn)……，經(jīng)濟(jì)將持續(xù)下滑。對(duì)于2015年，我們維持GDP增長(zhǎng)6.8％的預(yù)測(cè)?！?/p>

????中國(guó)宣布的國(guó)有企業(yè)、影子銀行以及地方政府債務(wù)等多項(xiàng)改革，會(huì)導(dǎo)致增長(zhǎng)放緩，但它們有助于經(jīng)濟(jì)健康發(fā)展。目前，中國(guó)公共債務(wù)占GDP的比重高達(dá)250％，已令國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)幾乎難以支撐。

????澳新銀行的劉利剛表示，中國(guó)服務(wù)業(yè)在2014年的表現(xiàn)，是此次公布的GDP數(shù)據(jù)中的一大亮點(diǎn)。服務(wù)業(yè)對(duì)GDP增長(zhǎng)的貢獻(xiàn)率為3.8個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，而制造業(yè)的貢獻(xiàn)率為3個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。劉利剛稱：“過(guò)去四年，盡管中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩，但新增就業(yè)崗位數(shù)量卻在逐年增長(zhǎng)，原因便在于服務(wù)業(yè)的發(fā)展?！毕啾茸詣?dòng)化的工廠，服務(wù)業(yè)雇傭的人更多。

????同時(shí)，盡管中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)速度在全球各大經(jīng)濟(jì)體中仍然遙遙領(lǐng)先，但其對(duì)石油、鐵礦石和銅等大宗商品的消耗量卻未同比例增長(zhǎng)，出現(xiàn)這一現(xiàn)象的原因亦是因?yàn)榉?wù)業(yè)。隨著市場(chǎng)意識(shí)到中國(guó)對(duì)大宗商品的需求增長(zhǎng)被嚴(yán)重高估，過(guò)去半年，上述商品的價(jià)格直線下跌。

????如今的GDP增長(zhǎng)放緩，同去年三季度時(shí)一樣明顯。當(dāng)時(shí)，中國(guó)季度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)創(chuàng)下5年來(lái)的新低，消息一出，中國(guó)股市應(yīng)聲下跌。然而，同樣是面對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩的消息，本月20日中國(guó)股市反而上漲了2％，這暗示投資者或許已經(jīng)習(xí)慣中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Hunter

????審稿：李翔

????For the past couple of months, China’s state-run press has been relentlessly running stories about China’s “new normal” and telegraphing the government’s likely reduction in the 2015 GDP target to 7% growth. “The country’s period of miraculous break-neck growth is over, but let’ s get over it,” state-run Xinhua wrote today.

????Even in the beginning of 2014, China was downplaying its growth potential. Only a day after Premier Li Keqiang announced China’s growth target of 7.5% earlier last year, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei undercut him and said 7.2% growth would be just fine.

????Nomura analysts led by Chang Chun Hua in Hong Kong spell out the likely scenario by which China’s growth continues slowing. It shouldn’t be completely unwelcome.

????“The economy will resume its downtrend … given deep-rooted domestic challenges such as tighter controls over local government debt, the property market correction and deleveraging,” Hua writes. “For 2015, we maintain our GDP growth forecast of 6.8%.”

????China’s announced reforms for state-run enterprises, shadow banking, and local government debt should reduce growth but contribute to a healthier economy which is struggling under a public-debt-to-GDP ratio of 250%.

????ANZ’s Liu says China’s service sector’s performance in 2014 is an important takeaway from the GDP announcements. The contribution from services to GDP growth was 3.8 percentage points vs. manufacturing’s 3 percentage points. He says, “This also explains, despite China’s slowing growth over the past four years, the new jobs created are growing year by year.” Services employ more people than do automated factories.

????It also explains why a growth rate that is still by far the fastest of any large economy in the world isn’t translating one-for-one into consumption of commodities such as oil, iron ore and copper, prices for which have tumbled in the last six months as markets wake up to how much they have overestimated the profile of Chinese demand growth.

????Today’s GDP growth slowdown was just as apparent in the third quarter, when China’s quarterly growth hit a five-year low. Back then Chinese stocks fell on the news. In a hint that investors may be getting used to a slowing China, stocks in Shanghai rose by 2% today.