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末日博士:中國可能會推遲經(jīng)濟改革

末日博士:中國可能會推遲經(jīng)濟改革

Stephen Gandel 2014-01-21
因為準確預測全球金融危機而名滿天下的經(jīng)濟學家努里爾?魯比尼被人們稱為末日博士。他最近表示,中國經(jīng)濟今年不會硬著陸,但因為擔心增長前景,中國未來幾年可能會推遲經(jīng)濟改革。

????油價大幅下跌。許多中東國家仍然依賴石油收入。收入下降可能導致中東地區(qū)陷于動蕩,而這種局面通常會引發(fā)油價暴漲。

????魯比尼還堅稱,美國在基礎設施和教育領域的投資不足。他認為,未來幾年,普通的藍領工人將被社會拋在后面。因此,不平等程度可能只會變得更糟。

????但在魯比尼看來,最大的問題或許是美聯(lián)儲。魯比尼表示,美聯(lián)儲正陷入一種亟需采取更多措施幫助經(jīng)濟復蘇的境地,但與此同時,它又開始創(chuàng)造出新的泡沫。魯比尼聲稱,他發(fā)現(xiàn)一些領域,特別是房地產(chǎn)市場、垃圾債券和比特幣,正在“泡沫化”。但在兩年或三年后,我們有可能面臨一個將導致另一場金融危機爆發(fā)的問題,魯比尼說。

????“資本將產(chǎn)生不菲的收益,熟練勞動力的前景也不錯,”魯比尼說?!暗{領工人的境遇恐怕就沒有這么好了?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W(wǎng))

????譯者:葉寒?????

????On energy, Roubini argues that a rising supply of oil in the U.S. and elsewhere will not bring down prices much. A number of Middle Eastern countries are still dependent on oil revenues. Lower revenues could lead to instability in the region, and that typically leads to oil price spikes.

????Roubini also maintains that the U.S. is underinvesting in infrastructure and education, arguing that the average blue collar American worker in the next few years will be left behind. As a result, inequality is only likely to get worse.

????But the biggest problem, Roubini thinks, could be the Federal Reserve. Roubini says the Fed is caught in a position where it needs to do more to help the economy, but at the same time, it's beginning to create new bubbles. He referred to what he sees now as "frothiness," pointing in particular to housing, junk bonds, and, potentially, bitcoins. But in two or three years time, Roubini says we could have a problem that leads to another financial crisis.

????"Capital will do well, and skilled labor will do well," says Roubini. "Blue collar workers, not as much."????

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