????現(xiàn)在，我們將注意力轉(zhuǎn)向世界其他地區(qū)：真是一場(chǎng)災(zāi)難啊。亞洲哀鴻遍野?；仡欉^(guò)去，我們已經(jīng)警告了一段時(shí)間。上周三亞洲股市全線潰退，日經(jīng)指數(shù)（Nikkei）以1.7%的跌幅“領(lǐng)先于”其他亞洲市場(chǎng)指數(shù)（但我們?nèi)匀徊豢春萌毡荆?/p>

????至于中國(guó)股市，就一個(gè)字，爛。我不知道你還能找出什么詞來(lái)形容它。與此同時(shí)，香港恒生指數(shù)自1月底來(lái)下跌了14.4%?，F(xiàn)在，它雖然沒(méi)有巴西或俄羅斯市場(chǎng)那么爛，但也相當(dāng)爛。印度股市下跌2.9%；印尼股市下跌3.7%。雖然我們看好菲律賓股市（在遍及新興市場(chǎng)的這場(chǎng)災(zāi)難中，菲律賓是我們感興趣的一個(gè)市場(chǎng)），但我們也賣出了菲律賓股票。我們意識(shí)到，這里的研究結(jié)論將讓位于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理需要。

????大家不能固執(zhí)己見(jiàn)。當(dāng)宏觀趨勢(shì)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)，放棄原有的觀點(diǎn)吧。

????歐洲？那里看起來(lái)也不好。這不是什么新消息。現(xiàn)在，如果德國(guó)綜合指數(shù)（DAX）突破8013點(diǎn)趨勢(shì)線，肯定會(huì)是一大新聞。這是一個(gè)關(guān)鍵點(diǎn)位。歐洲的大部分趨勢(shì)線都已被突破。富時(shí)指數(shù)（FTSE）剛剛破了趨勢(shì)線。因此，如果德國(guó)綜合指數(shù)突破趨勢(shì)線，我們跟蹤的86個(gè)國(guó)家股市（除了美國(guó)）將全部失守趨勢(shì)線。

????投資者將沒(méi)有什么地方可以安放資金。因此，在某種意義上，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)將是最后一枝獨(dú)秀了。盯緊標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)的1583點(diǎn)。

????現(xiàn)在的問(wèn)題是，在什么點(diǎn)位上，股票價(jià)格將反映增長(zhǎng)預(yù)期？我不知道這個(gè)問(wèn)題的答案。這是我們近來(lái)試圖傳達(dá)的內(nèi)容。我們一直在說(shuō)，第一：不要購(gòu)買(mǎi)債券，也不要購(gòu)買(mǎi)大宗商品或者其他6個(gè)月來(lái)我們不看好的投資。第二：降低股票敞口。這是當(dāng)前風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的要求。

????現(xiàn)在，我的任務(wù)不再是宣揚(yáng)6個(gè)月來(lái)已為人所知的東西。這已經(jīng)成為歷史?，F(xiàn)在，大家需要深吸一口氣，等待觀望。

????我們將買(mǎi)進(jìn)的首批投資將包括金融股。我們看好金融股。特別是因?yàn)椋找媛世钜呀?jīng)達(dá)到211個(gè)基點(diǎn)，而且還在繼續(xù)擴(kuò)大。這是強(qiáng)烈看漲金融類股的一個(gè)信號(hào)。大家的購(gòu)買(mǎi)清單應(yīng)該包括很多金融公司。其次，我們將重拾舊愛(ài)——醫(yī)療保健和消費(fèi)行業(yè)等側(cè)重消費(fèi)的公司。

????關(guān)注標(biāo)準(zhǔn)普爾500指數(shù)1583點(diǎn)的水平。這是關(guān)鍵。如果跌破這一點(diǎn)位，就和最后的這一枝獨(dú)秀說(shuō)再見(jiàn)吧。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????Turning our attention to the rest of the world: What a disaster. Asia is a bloody mess. Go back to the tapes, we've been sounding the alarm here for a while now. Asian markets overnight were a debacle with the Nikkei "outperforming" its peers by only declining 1.7% (no, we still don't like Japan).

????As for China -- just nasty. I don't know what else you would call it. Meanwhile, the Hang Seng is down 14.4% since the end of January. Now it's not as nasty as Brazil or Russia, but it's pretty darn nasty. India is down 2.9%; Indonesia down 3.7%. Even though we like the Philippines, (it's an interesting micro story within the broader disaster which is Emerging Markets) we sold that as well. We realized the research there was going to be trumped by the risk management signal.

????You can't be dogmatic in your stance. When the macro flows take over, get out of the way.

????Europe? It doesn't look good, either. That's not new. Now if the DAX trend line at 8013 breaks, that would definitely be news. That is a critical line. Most trend lines in Europe are broken. The FTSE just broke its trend. So if the DAX breaks, there will not be one -- not one -- out of the 86 countries whose equity markets we follow that will have held its trend line, other than the U.S. stock market.

????Investors are running out of places to put their money. So in a sense, the S&P 500 is the last of the Mohicans. Keep a close eye on the 1583 level on the S&P 500.

????Now the question is at what point do growth expectations in equities get prices in? I don't know the answer to that. That's what we've been trying to convey recently. What we have been saying is No. 1: Don't buy fixed income and don't buy commodities or anything that we haven't liked for six months. No. 2: Take down your equity exposure. That's the risk management order of the day.

????Ranting and raving about what has transpired these last six months is no longer my task. It's history. Right now you take a deep breath. You wait and you watch.

????One of the first things we'll be buying is Financials (XLF). We like the Financials. Particularly with the yield spread at 211 basis points wide and climbing. That's a very bullish indicator for the group. Your buy list should have a lot of financial names on it. After that, we'll go to the old bailiwick which is consumption-oriented names in health care and consumer itself.

????Keep an eye on that 1583 level on the S&P 500 (SPX). It's key. If that breaks, it's bye-bye to the Mohicans.