????印度和巴西讓你擔(dān)心的問題是什么？

????印度人似乎就認(rèn)定他們不用做什么，就可以達(dá)到8%的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長率。和中國不同，印度要改變政策非常困難。印度亟需批準(zhǔn)更多外國投資來提高生產(chǎn)率。

????巴西的一個(gè)基本問題是本幣估值過高。第二個(gè)問題是除了大宗商品行業(yè)，巴西其他行業(yè)不是很有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。除非他們能做些什么來振興非大宗商品行業(yè)，否則，巴西經(jīng)濟(jì)可能繼續(xù)不景氣。不過，我要補(bǔ)充一點(diǎn)，今年他們都已經(jīng)采取了措施來降低貨幣估值。這些舉措有相當(dāng)?shù)娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)，但讓人印象深刻。

????人們將墨西哥、印尼、韓國和土耳其的英文首字母縮寫“MIST”（迷霧四國）也歸為你的創(chuàng)造。迷霧四國的表現(xiàn)會(huì)好于金磚四國嗎？

????我看不出來。但我知道這是現(xiàn)在很流行的一個(gè)概念。

????那么，你根本不信這個(gè)據(jù)說是你創(chuàng)造的流行概念？

????這個(gè)字母縮寫的出現(xiàn)是因?yàn)槲覀冇幸淮卧趯懙桨l(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體時(shí)提到了金磚四國和其他這四個(gè)國家。有些韓國記者抓住了這一點(diǎn)，就寫我又創(chuàng)造了一個(gè)新詞，這時(shí)我才第一次聽到這個(gè)詞。這四個(gè)國家都很有意思，可能也會(huì)表現(xiàn)不錯(cuò)。有些可能在短時(shí)期內(nèi)可能經(jīng)濟(jì)增速還會(huì)快于中國，但我認(rèn)為這種可能性很小。韓國的人口結(jié)構(gòu)還不如中國。墨西哥、印尼和土耳其的人口結(jié)構(gòu)確實(shí)很好，但它們有很多其他問題。

????你說中國正在從一個(gè)出口型經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)向一個(gè)消費(fèi)型經(jīng)濟(jì)。哪些國家將從中受益？

????我認(rèn)為，墨西哥將是真正的大贏家，因?yàn)橹袊诘透郊又敌袠I(yè)上的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力將不如過去15年。過去，墨西哥曾屢屢處于下風(fēng)。意大利的奢侈品制造商們將繼續(xù)受益，德國公司也是如此。投資這些公司正當(dāng)時(shí)，因?yàn)橹袊M(fèi)市場(chǎng)是這個(gè)十年最大的投資主題。很可能美國也會(huì)受益。中國市場(chǎng)已占到蘋果公司（Apple）銷售額的20%。如果它能繼續(xù)維持一家超級(jí)大公司的地位，原因就是是因?yàn)橹袊?/p>

????What's your fear about India and Brazil?

????The Indians just sort of assume they can grow at 8% without doing anything. Contrary to China, they find it really difficult to change policies. India badly needs to allow more foreign investment to boost productivity.

????Brazil's basic problem has been that their currency became far too overvalued. That added to their second problem, that the noncommodity sector of their economy is not very competitive. Unless they can do something to boost their noncommodity industries, Brazil might continue to struggle. But I add that they've done things to reduce the strength of their currency this year that are risky but quite impressive.

????People have been attributing another acronym -- MIST, for Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, and Turkey -- to you. Will the MISTs do better than the BRICs?

????I can't see why, though I know it's a very fashionable story at the moment.

????So it's a fashionable story attributed to you that you don't even buy into?

????The acronym came about because we wrote about growing economies, which mentioned the BRICs and the four others. Some South Korean journalist got hold of that and wrote that I had created a new acronym, which was the first I'd heard about it. All those countries are interesting places and will probably do well. And some may have brief periods where they grow more strongly than China, but I think it's very unlikely. South Korea has worse demographics than China. Mexico, Indonesia, and Turkey do have very positive demographics, but they have lots of issues as well.

????You say China is changing from an export economy to a consumer economy. Which countries will benefit?

????I think Mexico is a really big winner, because China can't compete in the low-value-added industries that it did the past 15 years. And Mexico suffered badly from that. Italian luxury-goods makers continue to be winners, as do German companies. It's the right play because the Chinese consumer is the biggest investing story of this decade. And it's quite possible the U.S. will benefit. Apple (APPL) already has 20% of its sales in China. If it's going to continue to be a powerhouse, it will be because of China.