????另一個需要考慮的潛在因素是，分析師的收益預(yù)期總體上仍然偏樂觀。他們通常要依賴企業(yè)提供的自身業(yè)績預(yù)期進(jìn)行預(yù)測，而企業(yè)管理層在不能完全肯定業(yè)務(wù)是否會放緩時通常不愿意向外界透露利空消息（譬如印孚瑟斯的業(yè)績預(yù)警）。如果接下來更多公司發(fā)布業(yè)績放緩預(yù)警，總體上分析師們將會對科技類股的收益預(yù)期展開新一輪的下調(diào)。

????就算科技行業(yè)真的放緩增長，投資者還是能在黑暗中看到一些希望。從中長期來看，科技行業(yè)仍然強(qiáng)勢：企業(yè)要削減IT開支必須保證不傷及自身的競爭優(yōu)勢。同時，一些關(guān)鍵領(lǐng)域仍然煥發(fā)著勃勃生機(jī)。例如，活躍在移動和云計算領(lǐng)域的企業(yè)比個人電腦制造商和芯片制造商的業(yè)績表現(xiàn)要好得多。

????不過，總體而言，未來幾周的收益報告可能會伴隨著科技股股價的震蕩。

????譯者：默默

????Another potential factor is that analysts in general tend to lean toward optimism in earnings forecasts. They often rely on the guidance from companies, and corporate managers are loathe to telegraph bad news - like the Infosys warning – until they are absolutely sure of a slowdown. If more warnings of a slowdown follow, expect a round of hearty downward revisions of tech earnings in general.

????For investors, there are a couple of silver linings in the event of a tech slowdown. Longer-term, tech remains a strong sector: Companies can only cut back on IT for so long without hurting their own competitive edge. And there remain some key areas of strength. Companies active in mobile and cloud computing, for example, are doing much better than PC makers and chip manufacturers.

????For tech investors in general, however, the next few weeks of earnings reports could be a volatile ride.