????法國(guó)社會(huì)黨（Socialist Party）可能會(huì)把這個(gè)國(guó)家變成歐洲金融危機(jī)的下一個(gè)主要受害者。上周社會(huì)黨在法國(guó)議會(huì)選舉中獲得壓倒性勝利，讓這個(gè)左翼政黨事實(shí)上取得了對(duì)法國(guó)政府的全面掌控。由于權(quán)力不受任何制約，社會(huì)黨可自由實(shí)施諸多計(jì)劃，推動(dòng)法國(guó)膨脹的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)進(jìn)一步增長(zhǎng)，被債券市場(chǎng)民團(tuán)盯上。

????擁有壓倒性多數(shù)支持和強(qiáng)大政治資本的社會(huì)黨不應(yīng)取消審慎改革措施和增加開支。恰恰相反，現(xiàn)在是推動(dòng)歐元區(qū)建立更緊密的政治經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)盟的絕佳機(jī)會(huì)。這樣的轉(zhuǎn)變相比當(dāng)前考慮的任何倒退政策，更能強(qiáng)化法國(guó)脆弱的經(jīng)濟(jì)。

????上周一，法國(guó)社會(huì)黨總部?jī)?nèi)香檳四濺，慶賀該黨獲得法國(guó)議會(huì)577個(gè)席位中的314席。這一勝利讓社會(huì)黨取得了對(duì)法國(guó)國(guó)民議會(huì)（National Assembly）的全面掌控，也使得社會(huì)黨黨首和法國(guó)新任總統(tǒng)弗朗西斯?奧朗德（Francois Hollande）無需向僅獲209席位的保守黨人民運(yùn)動(dòng)聯(lián)盟（UMP）做出讓步即可通過法案。這一蕩氣回腸的勝利超出了預(yù)期，因?yàn)檫@意味著社會(huì)黨甚至都無需同其他左翼政黨構(gòu)建一個(gè)聯(lián)盟來掌控政府的立法部門，已經(jīng)基本上獲得了對(duì)法國(guó)的全面掌控。

????社會(huì)黨沒有浪費(fèi)絲毫?xí)r間就展開了工作。法國(guó)議會(huì)已召開為期一個(gè)月的特別會(huì)議，希望啟動(dòng)“重建”法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的進(jìn)程。目前法國(guó)的日子并不好過：預(yù)計(jì)2012年失業(yè)率10%，GDP零增長(zhǎng)，預(yù)算赤字5%將把該國(guó)已處于高位的債務(wù)/GDP比率推高至90%以上。而且，更令人心驚的是，向歐元區(qū)政府和消費(fèi)者提供數(shù)十億歐元貸款的法國(guó)大銀行的債務(wù)總額已達(dá)到2.7萬億歐元，幾乎相當(dāng)于法國(guó)的GDP。

????看看這些數(shù)字，就不奇怪為何法國(guó)被華爾街和倫敦金融城的很多人士視為一個(gè)滴答作響的定時(shí)炸彈。法國(guó)社會(huì)黨希望通過實(shí)施很多刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的舉措，在這枚炸彈爆炸前悄無聲息地拆除它。想法固然好，但看起來社會(huì)黨準(zhǔn)備剪斷的那根引線是錯(cuò)誤的。

????法國(guó)社會(huì)黨的政治主張是基于平民主義，承諾將控制住該國(guó)不斷加劇的債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)，拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。該黨計(jì)劃主要通過加稅來實(shí)現(xiàn)這兩項(xiàng)通常相互抵觸的目標(biāo)。奧朗德在4月份的選舉中承諾，將把法國(guó)的最高稅級(jí)升至75%，并堵住眾多稅務(wù)漏洞，他的競(jìng)選辦公室稱這可為法國(guó)財(cái)政帶來100億歐元收入，把5%的預(yù)算赤字降至更能管理的水平。另外，還有討論擬制定實(shí)施3%的股息稅、對(duì)銀行和能源公司征收15%的特別稅以及對(duì)所有金融交易征收小型交易稅。此外，還有上調(diào)增值稅的討論，上調(diào)增值稅會(huì)對(duì)消費(fèi)支出產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響。

????France's Socialist Party could be setting the country up to become the next major victim of the European financial crisis. A landslide victory for the party, called PS, in this week's parliamentary elections gives the leftist political party virtually total control of the French government. With no check to the PS's power, the party will be free to implement a number of programs that will increase the country's burgeoning debt load, making it a target for the bond market vigilantes.

????But instead of rolling back prudent reforms and spending more money, the PS, with its commanding majority and enormous political capital, has a golden opportunity to push for a much closer political and economic union for the eurozone. Such a change would go further to mending France's withered economy than any of the regressive policies currently under consideration.

????The champagne flowed at the PS headquarters on Monday morning as the party won 314 seats in the 577-seat French parliament. The victory gives the PS total control of the upper and lower houses of the National Assembly, which hands the head of the PS and the country's newly elected President, Francois Hollande, the power to push through laws without the need to compromise with the conservative UMP party, which picked up just 209 seats. The resounding victory was better than expected as it meant that the PS wouldn't even have to form a coalition with other leftist parties to control the legislative branch of government, essentially giving it total control of the country.

????The PS is wasting no time in getting down to work. The parliament has been called into an extraordinary session for a month to start the process of "rebuilding" the French economy. With 10% unemployment and zero GDP growth expected for 2012, things aren't pretty in the Hexagone these days. The country is facing a 5% budget deficit this year, which will increase the nation's already high debt to GDP ratio to well above 90%. And even scarier, the French mega banks, which have made billions of euros of loans to governments and consumers across the eurozone, are exposed to a mind-blowing $2.7 trillion in debt, which is pretty much equal to the nation's GDP.

????Looking at those numbers it is no wonder why France is viewed by many on Wall Street and the City of London as being a financial ticking time bomb. The PS wants to quietly disarm the bomb before it goes off through a number of initiatives, which they believe will stimulate economic growth. But while the PS has good intention, it looks like it is getting ready to snip the wrong wire.

????The PS campaigned on a populist platform where it promised to tame the country's rising debt load, while stimulating economic growth. The party plans on achieving these two normally conflicting goals primarily through tax hikes. Hollande campaigned in April on the promise of raising the nation's top tax bracket to 75% and closing a number of tax loopholes, which his office claims could bring in 10 billion euros to the national treasury, narrowing the 5% budget deficit to a more manageable level. There is also talk of instituting a 3% dividend tax, a 15% special tax on banks and energy companies, as well as a small transaction tax on all financial deals. In addition, there is also talk of increasing the nations VAT tax rate, which will have a negative impact on consumer spending.