????黑石顧問合伙人公司（Blackstone Advisory Partners）副董事長拜倫?維恩年初發(fā)表了2012年十大預測報告。他在擔任摩根斯坦利（Morgan Stanley）首席美國投資戰(zhàn)略家時就開始每年發(fā)布此項報告，迄今已有25年。

????關于預測，如果普通投資者認為只有三分之一的發(fā)生概率，拜倫會將其定義為“意外”；一旦他認為“可能”，則表明他認為發(fā)生的概率大于50%。

2012年十大預測

????1、頁巖油氣開采顛覆石油市場格局。石油價格回歸至每桶85美元，美國對石油的進口開始不那么依賴中東。波蘭、烏克蘭等地的石油儲備量也很充足。造成油價回落的因素包括利比亞和伊拉克石油產(chǎn)量增加，以及全球經(jīng)濟活動放緩導致需求減少。

????2、美國公司收入持續(xù)提高，標準普爾500指數(shù)上揚至1,400點以上。原材料價格持續(xù)走軟，商界領袖通過利用科技降低勞動力和物流在產(chǎn)品和服務中所占的比重，保證了利潤高企，從而成功適應了經(jīng)濟增長放緩的形勢。

????3. 美國經(jīng)濟恢復元氣。實際增長率將超過3%，失業(yè)率將下滑到8%以下。對經(jīng)濟衰退的恐懼，以及關于經(jīng)濟增長持久放緩將成為“新常態(tài)”的觀點遭到質(zhì)疑。資本支出、出口以及消費者三項因素推動經(jīng)濟增長并突破財政障礙。石油價格下跌以及股市上揚不僅會增強消費者的信心，同時也會改善消費模式。

????4、經(jīng)濟恢復和失業(yè)率下降有助于美國總統(tǒng)奧巴馬向選民證明，他在首個任期內(nèi)的表現(xiàn)并不算太差。人們覺得他是一位出色的演說家，但并非一位優(yōu)秀的領袖，而其競選對手米特?羅姆尼相對來說缺乏生氣，對很多問題的立場也不明確。民主黨將重新奪回眾議院的控制權，但是會在反對現(xiàn)任議員的浪潮中喪失參議院的優(yōu)勢地位。

????5、歐洲終于出臺了一項全面的計劃，以處理其外債問題，并向財政統(tǒng)一又邁進一步。歐洲央行（European Central Bank）、國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）、歐洲金融穩(wěn)定基金（European Financial Stability Facility）和歐盟（European Union）團結一致，保住了歐盟，所有成員國仍然留在歐盟內(nèi)，同時，歐元繼續(xù)作為歐洲大陸的統(tǒng)一貨幣。希臘進行大規(guī)模債務重組；西班牙和愛爾蘭年內(nèi)有望增強財政實力，但意大利將開始“自愿”重組。銀行系統(tǒng)崩盤得以避免，但外界強加的財政緊縮可能使得歐洲遭遇衰退。

????6、電腦取代常規(guī)軍備，成為恐怖分子和地緣性反對派運用的主要武器。東歐和亞洲黑客侵入大型國際機構數(shù)據(jù)庫，造成銀行系統(tǒng)的暫時性關閉。倍感焦慮的20國集團（G-20）將召開會議，專門討論這個問題。

????Byron Wien, vice chairman of Blackstone Advisory Partners, today published his list of surprises for 2012 -- following a 25-year tradition he began while still chief U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley.

????Byron defines a "Surprise" as an event which the average investor would only assign a one out of three chance of taking place but which Byron believes is "probable," having a better than 50% likelihood of happening:

The Surprises of 2012

????1. The extraction of oil and gas from shale and rock begins to be a game changer. The price of oil drifts back to $85 a barrel and the United States becomes less dependent on Middle East supply. Deposits in Poland, Ukraine and elsewhere prove promising as well. Increased production from Libya and Iraq and reduced demand resulting from the slowdown in world-wide economic activity contribute to the price decline.

????2. Earnings for American corporations continue to move higher driving the Standard & Poor's 500 above 1400. Raw material prices continue soft and business leaders successfully adjust to slower economic growth by using technology to reduce the labor and logistical component of goods and services sold; profit margins stay high.

????3. The U.S. economy gets its second wind. Real growth exceeds 3% and the unemployment rate drops below 8%. Recession fears and even "the new normal" view of prolonged slow growth are called into question. Capital spending, exports and the consumer drive the economy, overcoming fiscal drag. The drop in the price of oil and the rise in the stock market improve both consumer confidence and spending patterns.

????4. The recovering economy and the declining unemployment rate help President Obama convince the voters that he didn't do such a bad job in his first term after all. He is viewed as a good speaker but a poor leader who is running against Mitt Romney, viewed as uninspired and whose positions on many issues are unclear. Democrats take back the House of Representatives but lose the Senate in an anti-incumbent wave.

????5. Europe finally develops a broad plan to deal with its sovereign debt problem and moves closer to fiscal cohesion. The European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the European Financial Stability Facility and the European Union band together to keep all the countries within the Union and to continue the euro as the Continent's currency. Greece has a major restructuring of its debt; Spain and Ireland strengthen their finances during the year, but Italy suffers a "voluntary" restructuring. A meltdown of the banks is avoided, but imposed austerity causes Europe to suffer a recession.

????6. The computer replaces conventional armaments as the principal weapon of terrorists and geopolitical adversaries. Eastern European and Asian hackers invade the data banks of major international financial institutions causing temporary bank closures. An alarmed G-20 meets to address the problem.