????今天，萬(wàn)眾矚目的美國(guó)債務(wù)上限提升草案終于獲得通過(guò)，著實(shí)讓市場(chǎng)為之興奮了一陣，然而在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇乏力的大環(huán)境下，草案的最終細(xì)節(jié)和實(shí)施方案才是左右復(fù)蘇前景的關(guān)鍵所在。

????經(jīng)過(guò)了數(shù)周的政治角力，奧巴馬總統(tǒng)和國(guó)會(huì)領(lǐng)袖們?cè)谥苋丈钜惯_(dá)成了一致意見(jiàn)——從而避免了違約。參眾兩院將于晚些時(shí)候進(jìn)行投票表決，但是很顯然，鬧劇還并未謝幕。

????基于赤字削減計(jì)劃，華盛頓已就如何實(shí)施稅收和開(kāi)支方案激辯了數(shù)月。然而，由于只涉及削減，不涉及增稅，因此該計(jì)劃對(duì)GDP增長(zhǎng)的影響仍是個(gè)未知數(shù)，而且自從2010年夏天以來(lái)，GDP一直增長(zhǎng)步履蹣跚。目前的問(wèn)題在于，計(jì)劃執(zhí)行后，第一，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)到底會(huì)脆弱到什么程度，第二，如此大規(guī)模的削減是否會(huì)使經(jīng)濟(jì)超級(jí)疲軟期進(jìn)一步延長(zhǎng)。

????提案將分兩個(gè)階段將美國(guó)債務(wù)上限總計(jì)提高2.4萬(wàn)億美元。首先，未來(lái)10年政府將削減開(kāi)支9，170億美元。然后，國(guó)會(huì)將成立特別委員會(huì)來(lái)謀求剩下的1.5萬(wàn)億美元赤字的出路，他們有可能會(huì)拿稅收和社會(huì)保障計(jì)劃開(kāi)刀。

????有跡象表明，為了計(jì)劃的順利實(shí)施，國(guó)會(huì)議員一直都在未雨綢繆，避免意外的阻撓。然而鑒于過(guò)去幾周所上演的政治鬧劇，誰(shuí)又忍心責(zé)備他們呢？如果特別委員會(huì)最終完成的削減任務(wù)低于1.2萬(wàn)億美元，或者國(guó)會(huì)不采納其削減建議，那么取而代之的將是一個(gè)預(yù)設(shè)的支出削減方案。該削減方案將波及軍事開(kāi)支以及醫(yī)療保險(xiǎn)。

????盡管用心良苦，但該計(jì)劃對(duì)于目前疲軟的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇只字未提。誠(chéng)然，大部分削減措施要到2013年才正式生效，也不會(huì)影響針對(duì)低收入家庭、社會(huì)保險(xiǎn)和醫(yī)療援助的福利計(jì)劃。這樣，在政府開(kāi)支縮減之前，經(jīng)濟(jì)仍有喘息的時(shí)間。政府開(kāi)支占美國(guó)GDP的20%，是僅次于消費(fèi)的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)第二大生力軍。

????但從最近GDP增長(zhǎng)的報(bào)道來(lái)看，經(jīng)濟(jì)何時(shí)會(huì)復(fù)蘇已變得越來(lái)越難以捉摸。據(jù)咨詢(xún)公司Global IHS Insight的預(yù)報(bào)顯示，第二季度，經(jīng)濟(jì)僅增長(zhǎng)了1.3%，而且前幾個(gè)季度的數(shù)據(jù)表明經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)和復(fù)蘇遠(yuǎn)比預(yù)期乏力。在過(guò)去的6個(gè)月中，GDP的年增速僅為0.8%。

????下半年經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的前景正急劇黯淡。即使2013年美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)不再低迷，恐怕在此之前出現(xiàn)實(shí)質(zhì)性復(fù)蘇的可能性依然很小。

????債務(wù)上限的提升暫時(shí)讓國(guó)會(huì)如釋重負(fù)，然而壓力將再次回到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)身上，它將再一次面臨激活經(jīng)濟(jì)的重任。也許國(guó)會(huì)應(yīng)該考慮將第三輪量化寬松計(jì)劃與此次債務(wù)上限上調(diào)方案進(jìn)行捆綁，以備不時(shí)之需。

????Markets today initially cheered the rough sketches of a highly anticipated deal to raise the U.S. government's debt limit, but how the nation's fragile economic recovery responds will depend on the final details of the plan and how it eventually rolls out.

????After weeks of political wrangling, President Obama and congressional leaders reached a deal late Sunday night – thereby avoiding a default. The Senate and House are expected to vote on a plan later today, but needless to say, the drama isn't over yet.

????The deficit-reduction plan sets the stage for months of debates over how Washington taxes and spends. And it's uncertain how a plan centered on spending cuts without tax increases will impact GDP growth, which has faltered since the summer of 2010. The question now is how much weaker could things get and could the scale of spending cuts prolong the incredibly soft patch?

????An outline of the deal would raise the debt ceiling by $2.4 trillion in two stages. First, it would cut spending by $917 billion over the next 10 years. Then, a special committee would be tasked to find another $1.5 trillion in savings, which could come through tax overhauls and changes to social programs.

????It appears lawmakers have tried to avoid any unforeseen hiccups to the plan. And who can blame them, given the political disaster that's played out over the past few weeks? If the committee doesn't find at least $1.2 trillion in savings, or Congress doesn't adopt its proposals, a pre-set array of spending cuts would kick in. This could include cuts in military spending and Medicare payments to health-care providers.

????However well intentioned, the plan doesn't address the extent of today's weak economic recovery. To be sure, the bulk of spending cuts wouldn't kick in until 2013 and wouldn't affect programs for low-income households, Social Security or Medicaid. Surely this gives the economy some time to heal before reeling in government spending, which currently makes up about 20% of GDP and the largest share of the U.S. economy next to consumption.

????But judging by the latest reports on GDP growth, it has become increasingly uncertain when the economy will really starting picking up. During the second quarter, it grew by only 1.3% and revisions to previous quarters show a deeper recession and a weaker recovery than previously portrayed, according to forecasting firm Global IHS Insight. For the past six months, GDP grew at an annual rate of only 0.8%.

????Prospects for a pickup during the second half of the year are fading fast. Even if the economy is no longer depressed by 2013, it will likely just have started growing in any meaningful way.

????So while Congress might be breathing a slight sigh of relief once the debt ceiling is raised, this will likely put pressure on the Fed to act in an effort to – once again – jumpstart the economy. Perhaps Congress needs to pair this debt deal with a back-up QE3 plan?