美國(guó)痛苦指數(shù)創(chuàng)新高
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????面對(duì)現(xiàn)實(shí)吧，不太可能感覺(jué)良好。宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)咨詢(xún)機(jī)構(gòu)Capital Economics的保羅?戴爾斯指出，美國(guó)痛苦指數(shù)——即失業(yè)率和消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)通脹率之和——上個(gè)月創(chuàng)下了28年以來(lái)的高點(diǎn)。 ????美國(guó)痛苦指數(shù)上個(gè)月達(dá)到了12.7，為1983年以來(lái)新高——當(dāng)時(shí)美國(guó)時(shí)任總統(tǒng)是羅納德?里根，而股市和債市的大牛市剛剛萌芽。和以往一樣，情況可能會(huì)進(jìn)一步惡化(也許已經(jīng)惡化)。 ????1983年痛苦指數(shù)的高點(diǎn)是14.1，現(xiàn)在看來(lái)高得有些嚇人，但當(dāng)時(shí)是5年內(nèi)的最低值。 ????那些喋喋不休地談?wù)摗笆I(yè)滯漲”的人們應(yīng)謹(jǐn)記這一點(diǎn)。是的，如今9.1%的失業(yè)率和3.6%的通脹率都不是什么好消息。但當(dāng)里根在1980年11月的大選中擊敗吉米?卡特的時(shí)候，失業(yè)率是7.5%，而通脹率是12.7%，加起來(lái)痛苦指數(shù)超過(guò)了20。 ????幸運(yùn)的是，這是我們最后一次到達(dá)如此高位。要說(shuō)現(xiàn)今的決策者們已經(jīng)鎖定勝局，當(dāng)然有些牽強(qiáng)。但如果有人對(duì)70年代的數(shù)據(jù)視而不見(jiàn)，宣稱(chēng)我們目前陷入滯漲之中，也同樣不足為信。 |
????Let's face it, probably not. The misery index – the sum of the unemployment and consumer price inflation rates – hit a 28-year high last month, notes Paul Dales of Capital Economics.
????At a recent 12.7, the misery index is at its highest level since 1983, when Ronald Reagan was president and the great bull markets in stocks and bonds were in their infancy. Yet as always, it's worth recalling that things can be (and have been) worse. ????The 1983 peak was 14.1, which looks terrifyingly high now but at the time was the lowest reading in five years. ????This is worth bearing in mind for those who drone on endlessly about "jobless stagflation." Yes, 9.1% joblessness and 3.6% inflation are both bad news. But hey, when Reagan beat Jimmy Carter in the November 1980 election, unemployment was 7.5% and inflation was, um, 12.7%, for a nifty misery score above 20. ????That, fortunately, was the last time we reached that exalted level. It is certainly a stretch to say today's policymakers are nailing it, but it's equally hard to believe anyone can look at the data from the 1970s and claim what we have now is stagflation. |
