比特幣投資的新階段
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????風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家已經(jīng)在比特幣相關(guān)的初創(chuàng)公司身上投入了大約1億美元，他們相信加密貨幣最終會(huì)在全球支付行業(yè)占據(jù)相當(dāng)?shù)姆蓊~。從數(shù)碼錢包到商業(yè)承兌匯票的一切業(yè)務(wù)都將見(jiàn)到它們的身影。不過(guò)，假如他們不幫忙實(shí)現(xiàn)美元與比特幣之間的兌換，這些恐怕都只是一個(gè)泡影。 ????這些投資家們會(huì)告訴你，比特幣的廣泛采用是他們這些初創(chuàng)公司取得成功的關(guān)鍵。例如，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家本?霍洛維茨最近與博主菲利克斯?薩爾蒙打賭稱，未來(lái)的五年內(nèi)，美國(guó)國(guó)家公共電臺(tái)（NPR，National Public Radio）超過(guò)10%的聽(tīng)眾都會(huì)使用比特幣購(gòu)買商品?；袈寰S茨打這個(gè)賭，不僅是因?yàn)樗嘈抛约簳?huì)贏，也是因?yàn)樗枰A【迄今為止，安德森?霍洛維茨基金（Andreessen Horowitz）已經(jīng)在比特幣領(lǐng)域投資了將近5,000萬(wàn)美元】。 ????目前，妨礙比特幣普及的一個(gè)主要問(wèn)題是它的價(jià)格波動(dòng)過(guò)大。比特幣的這個(gè)特性對(duì)于“貨幣”投機(jī)者來(lái)說(shuō)很棒，但同樣的事情對(duì)那些只是希望買汽油、買日用百貨時(shí)圖個(gè)方便的人來(lái)說(shuō)就是災(zāi)難了。甚至對(duì)商家來(lái)說(shuō)也是一樣，即使買賣雙方在交易時(shí)都采用實(shí)時(shí)匯兌技術(shù)。想象一下，如果電腦只能在一半時(shí)間內(nèi)處于開啟狀態(tài)，早期的因特網(wǎng)公司吸引顧客將會(huì)有多么困難【“糟糕，貌似我今天用不了美國(guó)在線（AOL）了”】。 ????比特幣要減少價(jià)格波動(dòng)，就需要一個(gè)流動(dòng)性市場(chǎng)，讓包括機(jī)構(gòu)和政府在內(nèi)的大型投資者都能舒服地參與其中。這個(gè)市場(chǎng)一要有法律監(jiān)管，二要設(shè)在美國(guó)境內(nèi)（最有可能是在紐約）。不僅僅是因?yàn)榱鲃?dòng)性市場(chǎng)能產(chǎn)生流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)，還因?yàn)樗軒?lái)信譽(yù)，從而讓比特幣被人們所采用。 ????因此，意料之中的是，筆者聽(tīng)說(shuō)一些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家已經(jīng)開始探索法律管制下的美國(guó)與加密貨幣兌換的投資機(jī)會(huì)。我還知道至少有一家風(fēng)投公司支持的企業(yè)正在展開嚴(yán)肅的會(huì)談，希望借助在這方面有所進(jìn)展。 ????不過(guò)筆者要更進(jìn)一步說(shuō)明：就算風(fēng)投公司最后認(rèn)為這樣單獨(dú)投資的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)太大，為了他們（無(wú)論是過(guò)去已經(jīng)進(jìn)行的，還是未來(lái)希望進(jìn)行的）其他的比特幣投資，他們?nèi)匀粫?huì)虧本推動(dòng)這個(gè)進(jìn)程。畢竟，如果沒(méi)有先建立好自己可靠的支付體系，就不可能打破現(xiàn)有的支付格局。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)） ????譯者：嚴(yán)匡正 |
????Venture capitalists have invested around $100 million into Bitcoin-related startups, believing that the cryptocurrency will eventually take a major bite out of the global payments industry. Everything from digital wallets to merchant acceptance solutions. But if they don't help create a U.S. exchange, it all might be for naught. ????Any one of these investors will tell you that widespread adoption is key to the success of their various startups. Venture capitalist Ben Horowitz, for example, recently bet blogger Felix Salmon that more than 10% of NPR listeners will have used Bitcoin to buy something within the next five years. Horowitz made the bet not only because he believes he'll win, but also because he needs to win (Andreessen Horowitz so far has invested nearly $50 million into the space). ????A major barrier to Bitcoin adoption right now, however, is price volatility. The same thing that makes Bitcoin great for "currency" speculators is the exact same thing that makes it a nightmare for someone who just wants to have a more convenient (and possibly cheaper) way to buy gas or groceries. Same goes for merchants, even if they use instant conversion technologies on both ends of a transaction. Imagine how hard it would have been for early Internet companies to get users if PCs only turned on 50% of the time ("oops, guess I can't use AOL today"). ????To reduce volatility, Bitcoin requires a liquid market where large investors -- including institutions and governments -- are comfortable participating. Regulated, and based in the U.S. (most likely in New York). Not only does liquidity beget liquidity, but it also begets reliability which begets adoption. ????Not surprisingly, I've heard that several venture capitalists already are exploring the investment case for a regulated U.S. cryptocurrency exchange. And I know of at least one VC-backed company that is in serious talks to move forward this something like this, likely via a "seat" model. ????But I'll go a step further: Even if VCs ultimately deem such an investment too risky as a standalone, they still should proceed as a sort of loss leader for their other Bitcoin investments (past and future). You can't destroy the payment rails without first creating your own reliable infrastructure. |
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