蘋(píng)果產(chǎn)品未來(lái)走向大預(yù)測(cè)
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????在由Business Insider主辦、為期三天、主題為“數(shù)字的未來(lái)”的Ignition大會(huì)上，除去亨利?布拉吉在周二的公開(kāi)演示中就蒂姆?庫(kù)克在中國(guó)保持競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力所需做的事情上提出了幾句尖銳評(píng)論外，唯一專門(mén)討論蘋(píng)果（Apple）的會(huì)議就是吉恩?蒙斯特15分鐘的午餐后演示，題為“蘋(píng)果的現(xiàn)狀”。 ????下面是他在會(huì)中提到的觀點(diǎn)： ????? iPhone的銷量在過(guò)去兩個(gè)季度中增長(zhǎng)了23%，而市場(chǎng)的總體銷量增長(zhǎng)了47%。蒙斯特對(duì)與會(huì)者說(shuō)：“實(shí)際上，iPhone增長(zhǎng)速度之所以低于整體市場(chǎng)是由于在新興市場(chǎng)定價(jià)過(guò)高。” ????? 蒙斯特預(yù)計(jì)蘋(píng)果將在明年年中推出更大尺寸的iPhone（5英寸）。盡管去年iPhone的價(jià)格并未變動(dòng)（iPhone 4除外），但他認(rèn)為蘋(píng)果很快就會(huì)在新興市場(chǎng)降低老款手機(jī)的價(jià)格。 ????? iPad給蘋(píng)果貢獻(xiàn)了25%的收入，不過(guò)近來(lái)它也開(kāi)始遭遇困境。究其緣由，是因?yàn)槠桨咫娔X的創(chuàng)新更加艱難，而市場(chǎng)對(duì)價(jià)格也更加敏感。（與iPhone不同，iPad無(wú)法得到運(yùn)營(yíng)商的補(bǔ)貼。） ????? 蒙斯特相信，蘋(píng)果正在開(kāi)發(fā)更大屏幕的iPad，并將于2015年發(fā)售。他表示，平板電腦市場(chǎng)太大了（有人估計(jì)，明年將會(huì)有3.2億臺(tái)的銷量），蘋(píng)果不可能不擴(kuò)大產(chǎn)品種類?！拔覀兿嘈?，僅僅兩種尺寸不可能滿足所有人的需求。”同樣，為了品牌化的打算，和MacBook Pro一樣，蘋(píng)果也會(huì)推出iPad Pro。 ????? 蘋(píng)果電視是蒙斯特最喜歡討論的話題之一。他不動(dòng)聲色地說(shuō)：“我總是低估蘋(píng)果電視面世所需的時(shí)間?！彼畛躅A(yù)計(jì)蘋(píng)果電視將于2012年（也許是2011年？）面世。不過(guò)他依然堅(jiān)持自己的觀點(diǎn)。他相信蘋(píng)果電視很快就會(huì)面世，時(shí)間就在2014年。 ????? 蒙斯特詼諧地模仿了投資公司Piper Jaffray的一個(gè)小調(diào)查，給大家播放了街邊采訪的視頻。14位消費(fèi)者中，有7位表示愿意購(gòu)買(mǎi)蘋(píng)果電視，5位表示不愿意，還有2位不確定。今年夏天更大范圍的一次調(diào)查中，50%的受訪者表示有興趣購(gòu)買(mǎi)iTV。不過(guò)當(dāng)?shù)弥娨暿蹆r(jià)也許高達(dá)1,700美元時(shí)，這個(gè)比例下降到了15%。 ????? 根據(jù)蒙斯特的計(jì)算，如果在有線電視市場(chǎng)占據(jù)15%的份額，蘋(píng)果的總收入就能增加18%?！斑@就是為什么我們認(rèn)定蘋(píng)果會(huì)進(jìn)入這個(gè)市場(chǎng)?！?/p> ????? 蒙斯特還認(rèn)為，iWatch將于2014年面世。這并不因?yàn)樗麖膩喼薜墓?yīng)商那里得到了信號(hào)，而是因?yàn)檫@符合蒂姆?庫(kù)克對(duì)新產(chǎn)品的闡述和他對(duì)手表的“強(qiáng)烈興趣”。蒙斯特說(shuō)，在像FuelBand這種地方的員工“不會(huì)無(wú)緣無(wú)故跳槽到蘋(píng)果，除非是蘋(píng)果在打手表的主意。”。 ????? 引人注目的是，在第二個(gè)演示視頻中，13位受訪者里只有1位表示有興趣購(gòu)買(mǎi)蘋(píng)果手表。在另外一個(gè)范圍更廣泛的調(diào)查中，12%的iPhone用戶表示他們或許會(huì)購(gòu)買(mǎi)iWatch；而在安卓用戶中，這個(gè)比例降到了6%。蒙斯特預(yù)計(jì)，如果蘋(píng)果能賣(mài)出500萬(wàn)到1000萬(wàn)塊手表，它的年收入則可以增加1%到2%。 |
????Except for a few snarky comments Henry Blodget made in his opening presentation Tuesday about what Tim Cook needs to do to stay competitive in China, the only session devoted to Apple (AAPL) at Business Insider's three-day Ignition: Future of Digital conference was Gene Munster's 15-minute after-lunch talk titled "The State of Apple." ????Among the points he made: ????? iPhone unit sales grew 23% over the past two quarters compared with 47% for the overall market. "The reality is," Munster told Ignition attendees, "the iPhone is growing slower than market rates because it's priced too high for emerging markets." ????? Munster expects Apple to introduce a larger iPhone (5-inch) in the middle of next year, and although iPhone pricing hasn't changed over the past year (except for the iPhone 4) he expects Apple will soon start lowering prices for older phones in emerging markets. ????? The iPad represents 25% of Apple's revenue, but it's been struggling lately because innovation is more difficult on tablets and because prices in this market are particularly sensitive. (Unlike iPhones, iPads are not subsidized by carriers.) ????? Munster believes Apple is working on a larger-screen iPad for 2015. The market is too big (320 million units next year, by one estimate), he says, for Apple not to expand its offerings. "We believe that two sizes don't fit all." Also, for branding purposes, an iPad Pro would line up with the MacBook Pro. ????? Munster described Apple television as one of his favorite topics. "It's an understatement that I've been wrong about the timing of the TV," he deadpanned, noting that he first predicted that it would arrive in 2012 (or was it 2011?). But he's not standing down. He believes an Apple television set is going to happen, and that it will arrive in 2014. ????? In what was almost a parody of a tiny-sample Piper Jaffray survey, Munster showed a video of man-on-the-street interviews with 14 consumers, in which seven said they would buy an Apple television, five said no and two said maybe. In a larger survey this summer, the 50% who said they would be interested in buying an iTV fell to 15% when they were told that the set might cost $1,700. ????? By Munster's calculation, a 15% share of the connected TV market would add 18% to Apple's overall revenues. "That's why we think Apple will do it."????? |
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