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????3、本行業(yè)是否正發(fā)生深刻改變？如果是，將對公司產生何種影響？

????極端的經濟條件往往會加速現有的變革趨勢。報業(yè)已歷經多年衰落，但很多報紙還在茍延殘喘，直到最近的經濟危機把他們推下懸崖。而衰退也迫使20多年來下滑不止的底特律三大汽車廠商在危機中重生。這些行業(yè)都已經發(fā)生了深刻改變。

????而在其它行業(yè)，即使如此嚴重的經濟危機也可能只是讓生產暫時偏離了長期趨勢。例如，高通（Qualcomm）和英特爾（Intel）這樣的芯片廠商看似也在波峰波谷間跌跌撞撞，但長期看，增長還是保持著可靠的上升勢頭。如果前幾年的增長低于趨勢，很可能接下來就會出現一個追趕期，期間以高于趨勢的速度增長。

????你所在的行業(yè)經歷了一場地震還是干打雷不下雨？目前兩種答案都能找到理由。你最好能確信自己找到了正確的答案。

????即使在這樣動蕩的時期，也不是每個公司都需要改變戰(zhàn)略。但每個公司都需要確定自己的戰(zhàn)略是需要推倒重來還是精心微調?；卮鹕鲜?個問題就走出了第一步，越快越好。

????改編自杰奧夫?科爾文的著作：《衰退也有好的一面：苦日子里的管理戰(zhàn)略》，該書剛剛推出完全改寫和新版。

????3. Is our industry being deeply restructured, and if so, how will it affect us?

????Extreme economic conditions tend to accelerate trends that were already underway. Newspapers have been in decline for years, yet most papers hung on until the most recent recession, which finally pushed many over the edge. The secular decline of the three Detroit automakers was observable for at least 20 years before the recession forced a crisis that changed them dramatically. Those industries will never be the same.

????Yet in other industries, even an economic trauma as bad as this one may just throw production temporarily off its long-term trend line. For chipmakers like Qualcomm (QCOM) and Intel (INTC), as an example, growth has lurched through peaks and valleys but over time has followed a reliably rising line. A few years of below-trend growth will most likely be followed by a catch-up period of above-average growth.

????Is your industry feeling an earthquake or only a thunderclap? Either answer is plausible today. You'd just better be sure you've got the right answer.

????Not every company needs to change its strategy, even in these tumultuous times. But every company needs to determine if its strategy requires an overhaul or just thoughtful tweaks. Asking these three questions is a great way to start, and the sooner the better.

????Adapted from Geoff Colvin's bookThe Upside of the Downturn: Management Strategies for Difficult Times,just published in a fully revised and updated edition.