高盛：蘋(píng)果用戶價(jià)值近3000億美元
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????高盛（Goldman Sachs）分析師比爾?肖普稱，華爾街傾向于將蘋(píng)果（Apple）視為一家硬件公司，公司價(jià)值僅僅在于持續(xù)不斷推出的熱銷產(chǎn)品——似乎iPhone、iPad的忠實(shí)用戶，以及具有超常粘性的iOS軟件平臺(tái)一文不值。 ????為此，肖普進(jìn)行了兩方面的調(diào)查，嘗試確定這些無(wú)形資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值。 ????首先，他計(jì)算了從iOS轉(zhuǎn)到谷歌（Google）安卓（Android）系統(tǒng)等競(jìng)爭(zhēng)性平臺(tái)的成本。. ????然后，他對(duì)1,000名iPhone和iPad用戶進(jìn)行了調(diào)查，希望知道競(jìng)爭(zhēng)產(chǎn)品要提供多大折價(jià)，才能吸引這些蘋(píng)果用戶考慮換到其他產(chǎn)品。 ????他在上周五發(fā)給客戶的一份報(bào)告中公布了調(diào)查結(jié)果。報(bào)告的要點(diǎn)如下： ????? iOS用戶忠誠(chéng)度高。 94%的iOS用戶可能或非?？赡茉谫?gòu)買下一部智能手機(jī)或平板電腦時(shí)繼續(xù)選擇蘋(píng)果。超過(guò)1/5的用戶稱，再高的折價(jià)也不會(huì)考慮棄用蘋(píng)果產(chǎn)品。 ????? 轉(zhuǎn)換成本高。轉(zhuǎn)換的顯性成本包括更換音樂(lè)和應(yīng)用軟件等，平均每臺(tái)設(shè)備為122-301美元。而隱性成本，包括“瑣碎的麻煩”、喪失蘋(píng)果優(yōu)質(zhì)的客戶服務(wù)等，則進(jìn)一步強(qiáng)化了蘋(píng)果平臺(tái)的粘性。 ????? 規(guī)模效應(yīng)。肖普估計(jì)，截至上周六，即蘋(píng)果第三財(cái)季結(jié)束時(shí)，安裝iOS的設(shè)備總量將超過(guò)2.81億部，較去年同期大增72%。采用蘋(píng)果產(chǎn)品綜合均價(jià)扣除蘋(píng)果毛利率、平臺(tái)侵蝕等因素，肖普計(jì)算出每名iOS用戶貢獻(xiàn)的生命周期價(jià)值為1,053美元。 ????? 蘋(píng)果的最大價(jià)值在于用戶。以2.81億用戶乘以1,053美元，肖普獲得了蘋(píng)果用戶的總價(jià)值約2,950億美元，相當(dāng)于蘋(píng)果當(dāng)前市值的55%。而這還沒(méi)有考慮“蘋(píng)果手頭1,100億美元的現(xiàn)金，蘋(píng)果用戶群的快速增長(zhǎng)，Macintosh電腦和傳統(tǒng)iPod業(yè)務(wù)的價(jià)值，以及相關(guān)內(nèi)容、服務(wù)和外圍設(shè)備的價(jià)值”。 ????肖普在報(bào)告中指出，有些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)可能造成未來(lái)iOS平臺(tái)價(jià)值大幅下降，這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括創(chuàng)新失敗、監(jiān)管審查、市場(chǎng)飽和、平臺(tái)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)以及轉(zhuǎn)換成本下降等因素。但他表示，這些風(fēng)險(xiǎn)“已充分體現(xiàn)在蘋(píng)果當(dāng)前的貼現(xiàn)估值中”。 ????目前，蘋(píng)果仍是高盛的板塊首選股，12個(gè)月目標(biāo)價(jià)為850美元。蘋(píng)果過(guò)票上周四報(bào)收于569.05美元。 ????譯者：早稻米 |
????According to Goldman Sachs' Bill Shope, Wall Street tends to view Apple (AAPL) as a hardware company that is only as valuable as its next hit product -- as if its famously loyal iPhone and iPad customers or its unusually sticky iOS software platform were worth nothing. ????So he conducted a two-part study to try to put a price on those intangibles. ????First he calculated the cost of switching from iOS to a competing platform -- Google's (GOOG) Android, say. ????Then he conducted a survey of 1,000 iPhone and iPad customers to find out how much of a discount a competing product would have to offer before those customers would consider switching. ????He reported his findings in a note to clients Friday. The key takeaways: ????? iOS users are a loyal bunch. 94% are likely or highly likely to stick with Apple for their next smartphone or tablet. More than one in five said there isn't a discount high enough to persuade them to switch. ????? It costs a lot to switch. The explicit switching cost (to replace music, apps, etc.) comes to an average of $122 to $301 per device. The implicit switching costs (the "pain in the neck factor," losing Apple's better-than-average customer service, etc.) make the platform even stickier. ????? Installed base matters. Shope estimates that by Saturday (when Apple's third fiscal quarter ends), the installed base of iOS units will exceed 281 million, up 72% from the same quarter last year. Using a blended average selling price reduced by Apple's gross margin, platform erosion etc., he calculates that the lifetime value to Apple of each iOS customer is $1,053. ????? Apple's greatest value is its customer base. Multiplying 281 million by $1,053, Shope gets a value for Apple's installed base of roughly $295 billion. That's about 55% of Apple's current market capitalization. And that, he adds, "is before taking into consideration Apple's $110 billion cash balance, the rapid growth of the installed base, the value of the Macintosh and traditional iPod businesses, and the related content, services and peripherals streams." ????There are risks, Shope writes, that the value of the platform will decrease significantly in the future, among them failure to innovate, regulatory scrutiny, market saturation, platform competition and a deterioration of switching costs. But he adds that these risks "are more than captured in Apple's currently discounted valuation." ????Apple remains Goldman Sachs' (GS) top pick in the sector with a 12-month target price of $850. It closed Thursday at $569.05. |
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