蘋(píng)果股票能跌多低？
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????扎基指出，有三個(gè)因素可以阻止蘋(píng)果的市盈率繼續(xù)下跌： ? 定量基金。不管何時(shí)蘋(píng)果的市盈率跌至標(biāo)普500的平均市盈率（目前為16.42倍）以下，定量基金的電腦都會(huì)立即買(mǎi)入，然后蘋(píng)果股價(jià)就會(huì)反彈。 ? 蘋(píng)果的現(xiàn)金。蘋(píng)果有價(jià)值1100億美元的現(xiàn)金和有價(jià)證券，分配到股票上就是每股118美元。據(jù)扎基估算，按照蘋(píng)果目前的增長(zhǎng)速度，到2016年，這些資產(chǎn)會(huì)達(dá)到每股460美元。 ? 合理性。就最看跌的基金經(jīng)理也不能忽視蘋(píng)果的季報(bào)。上周蘋(píng)果公布季報(bào)后的股價(jià)反彈就顯示了這一點(diǎn)。（延伸閱讀：《蘋(píng)果松開(kāi)彈弓：一天賺入570億美元》。 ????據(jù)扎基預(yù)測(cè)，到今年10月，也就是蘋(píng)果公布2012年最后一份季報(bào)時(shí)，它的季度收益將達(dá)到每股50.49美元。即便那時(shí)它的市盈率只有12.5倍，但那時(shí)的股價(jià)也將達(dá)到每股630美元。如果市盈率上升到15倍，那么屆時(shí)蘋(píng)果股價(jià)將超過(guò)757美元。而且這還不算蘋(píng)果即將發(fā)布新iPhone。 ????《Bullish Cross》這本刊物已經(jīng)被超額認(rèn)購(gòu)了，許多人付費(fèi)去讀扎基的博客和每周市場(chǎng)指南。不過(guò)這次扎基免費(fèi)給出了以下建議： ????“蘋(píng)果股票在中期的兩個(gè)關(guān)鍵的買(mǎi)入價(jià)位是537美元（回撤32.8%）和503美元（回撤50%）。我們相信在537美元的價(jià)位上，蘋(píng)果會(huì)給出一個(gè)獨(dú)一無(wú)二的買(mǎi)入機(jī)會(huì)；在503美元的價(jià)位上，更是一個(gè)千載難逢的買(mǎi)入機(jī)會(huì)。盡管我們認(rèn)為蘋(píng)果股價(jià)可能永遠(yuǎn)也不會(huì)跌到503美元，但如果蘋(píng)果股票真的落到那個(gè)價(jià)格水平，那就相當(dāng)于2011年6月的每股310.50美元和2009年3月的每股80美元，（都是千載難逢的買(mǎi)入點(diǎn)。） ????投資者總是喜歡把事情過(guò)度復(fù)雜化。蘋(píng)果股價(jià)無(wú)疑將在2013年1月前沖破750元每股，而且在2013年秋天之前，有可能爬上1000美元大關(guān)。 ????因此，我們相信眼下最好的做法就是現(xiàn)在就買(mǎi)入，雖說(shuō)它有可能下降到537美元每股。在蘋(píng)果股價(jià)下跌時(shí)，不要理會(huì)別人的閑言碎語(yǔ)，用你的明智打敗華爾街那幫人。幾年之內(nèi)，蘋(píng)果將不出一個(gè)季度就能賣(mài)出1億臺(tái)iPhone手機(jī)。等到那時(shí)，蘋(píng)果的股價(jià)將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超過(guò)1000美元。如果明年蘋(píng)果股價(jià)有超過(guò)500美元的上漲空間，誰(shuí)還在乎損失三五十塊呢？別把事情搞得這么復(fù)雜?，F(xiàn)在就去買(mǎi)入吧?！?/p> ????譯者：樸成奎 |
????He cites three factors that keep Apple's P/E from going much lower: ? The quant funds. Whenever Apple's P/E falls below the S&P 500's -- currently 16.42 -- the funds' computers kick in and Apple gets a jump start. ? Apple's cash. Apple's $110 billion in cash and marketable securities works out to $118 a share. At their current rate of growth, Zaky estimates, those holdings will reach $460 a share by 2016. ? Reasonableness. Even the most bearish fund managers can't ignore Apple's quarterly reports, as last week's post-earnings rebound demonstrated. (See The Apple slingshot released: $57 billion in one clock tick.) ????Zaky expects that by October, when Apple issues its final report for fiscal 2012, its quarterly earnings will have reached $50.49 a share. Even at 12.5 times earnings, that's $630 a share. At 15 times earnings, it's over $757. And that's without a new iPhone. ????Bullish Cross has been oversubscribed for some time by members who pay to read Zaky's live blog and weekly market guidance. But he offers this advice for free: ????"The two key levels of support for Apple's stock in the intermediate term are $537 (32.8% retracement) and $503 (50% retracement) a share. We believe Apple presents with a unique buying opportunity at $537 and an extraordinarily rare opportunity at $503 a share. While we don't believe the stock will ever see $503 a share, if Apple does reach that level, it would be the equivalent of $310.50 in June 2011 or $80.00 a share in March 2009. ????Investors tend to overcomplicate things. Apple will undoubtedly see $750 a share by January 2013 and will likely see $1,000 no later than the fall of 2013. ????Thus, we believe the best thing to do is just to go in and buy now, ride any potential drawdown to $537 a share, ignore all of the nonsense you are likely to hear on the way down and beat Wall Street by being smart enough to realize what they often do not. And that is the fact that Apple will inevitably sell 100 million iPhones a quarter within the next few years. When that happens, Apple will be trading far north of $1,000 a share. Who cares about a $30 - $50 drawdown when there is over $500 in upside for the stock over the next year or so. Don't make things so complicated. Just go in and buy." |
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