蘋(píng)果股票能跌多低？
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????蘋(píng)果過(guò)去三周的股價(jià)就像在玩翹翹板，先是漲到644美元，然后跌到555美元，又漲到618美元，然后跌至581美元。投資者可能很想知道，蘋(píng)果的股價(jià)的漲跌是否會(huì)有一個(gè)下限。 ????為了給大家提供一些指導(dǎo)，我們請(qǐng)金融刊物”Bullish Cross”的分析師安迪?扎基更新了他去年為一篇文章配的兩幅蘋(píng)果股價(jià)走勢(shì)圖，這兩幅圖表原載于他去年11月發(fā)表的文章《蘋(píng)果：最被低估的美國(guó)大盤(pán)股》中。 ????右側(cè)的兩幅柱狀圖經(jīng)更新后反映了蘋(píng)果公司最新的財(cái)務(wù)季報(bào)，它將蘋(píng)果公司收益的指數(shù)級(jí)增長(zhǎng)，與按歷史市盈率得出的股票價(jià)值的穩(wěn)定下跌進(jìn)行了對(duì)比。 ????上方的圖表表明，蘋(píng)果連續(xù)12個(gè)月的每股收益大約環(huán)比上漲一倍（比如從2011年4月的20.98美元上漲至2012年4月的41.04美元）。 ????下方圖表表明，蘋(píng)果股票的價(jià)值（這里的價(jià)值指的是它的市盈率，不要把它與蘋(píng)果的股價(jià)混淆了）從2007年第四季度高達(dá)50.98的水平，降到了2012年第二季度12.62的低位。 ????這種現(xiàn)象被叫做“壓縮”，蘋(píng)果的投資者一直在抱怨這個(gè)問(wèn)題。他們喜歡把蘋(píng)果的市盈率與亞馬遜（Amazon）進(jìn)行比較。 ????去年蘋(píng)果的營(yíng)收入增長(zhǎng)速度幾乎達(dá)到了亞馬遜的兩倍。但蘋(píng)果本周的股價(jià)還不到每股收益的14.3倍。假如蘋(píng)果的市盈率可以達(dá)到亞馬遜的水平（即每股收益的190倍），那么現(xiàn)在蘋(píng)果的每股價(jià)格可能會(huì)達(dá)到7800美元以上。 ????不過(guò)把任何股價(jià)與亞馬遜對(duì)比，都只能讓你頭疼。 ????扎基認(rèn)為，蘋(píng)果的市盈率能“壓縮”到什么水平，看來(lái)是有一個(gè)極限的?！皬奶O(píng)果最近的歷史來(lái)看，它的市盈率只有兩次下降到了12.6的水平，”他說(shuō)：“一次是經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)期間，一次是現(xiàn)在。而且每次它都導(dǎo)致了一輪大規(guī)模的重新估值?！?? |
????Watching Apple's (AAPL) share price see-saw over the past three weeks -- up to $644, down to $555, up to $618, down to $581 -- investors might well wonder whether there's any limit to how high or, more to the point these days, how low the stock can go. ????To set some guidelines, we asked Bullish Cross' Andy Zaky to freshen a pair of charts he posted last November for an article entitled Apple: The Most Undervalued Large-Cap Stock in America. ????The bar graphs at right, updated to reflect the most recent quarterly report, contrast the exponential increase in Apple's earning with the steady decline in the value of its stock as measured by its trailing price-to-earnings ratio (P/E). ????The top chart shows Apple's twelve month trailing (TTM) earnings roughly doubling year-over-year (from $20.98 in April 2011, for example, to $41.04 in April 2012). ????The bottom chart shows its stock's value (its P/E, not to be confused with its stock price) falling from as high as 50.98 in Q4 2007 to as low as 12.62 in Q2 2012. ????This is called "compression," and you hear Apple investors complaining about it all the time. They like to contrast Apple's P/E ratio to Amazon's (AMZN). ????Apple's revenues grew nearly twice as fast as Amazon's last year. But Apple's stock is trading this week at less than 14.3 times earning. If it were trading, as Amazon does, at 190 times earnings, it would selling for more than $7,800 a share. ????But comparing any stock with Amazon buys you nothing but heartache. ????Zaky's point is that there seems to be a limit to how much Apple's P/E can be compressed. "In its recent history, it went to 12.6 only twice," he says. "During the financial crisis and now. And each time it led to a massive reevaluation."???? |
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