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????上周，圍繞蘋果可能打算制造一款獨(dú)立電視機(jī)的事出現(xiàn)了大量傳聞：從百思買（Best Buy）所泄漏的顧客調(diào)查問卷到調(diào)研網(wǎng)站Globe and Mail所發(fā)布的相關(guān)報(bào)道不一而足。該報(bào)道稱，加拿大電信公司已經(jīng)開始在其實(shí)驗(yàn)室里測試蘋果電視機(jī)。雖然眾說紛紜，但咨詢公司Jefferies International的彼得?麥塞克團(tuán)隊(duì)發(fā)布的長達(dá)23頁的報(bào)告可謂鶴立雞群。 ????麥塞克沒有分神去猜測這款電視機(jī)的控制方式是語音、鍵盤還是手勢或至三者的結(jié)合，而是重點(diǎn)探討了對所有網(wǎng)絡(luò)電視制造商而言最難破解的問題：如何在用戶希望的時(shí)間和地點(diǎn)（換言之，隨時(shí)隨地），向其提供足夠多的高品質(zhì)內(nèi)容。 ????麥塞克提到了蘋果投資者們所熱議的三種可能方式——?jiǎng)?chuàng)造內(nèi)容、孵化內(nèi)容、購買獨(dú)家播放權(quán)。但他隨后就否定了這些方案，轉(zhuǎn)而將注意力集中在自己認(rèn)為最可能的一種方式：購買非獨(dú)家播放權(quán)，以避免刺激好萊塢制片商。 ????“我們認(rèn)為最可能出現(xiàn)的情況是（蘋果采?。﹊Tunes模式，這樣一來，蘋果公司只需為非獨(dú)家內(nèi)容支付較少的費(fèi)用，從而使用戶能收看更多的內(nèi)容（創(chuàng)造更好的用戶體驗(yàn)），并用一個(gè)出眾的用戶界面和生態(tài)系統(tǒng)來包裝所有內(nèi)容。我們認(rèn)為，蘋果有信心在爭奪內(nèi)容的公平競賽中勝出?！?/p> ????雖然這個(gè)方案聽起來很容易，但實(shí)現(xiàn)起來相當(dāng)復(fù)雜。麥塞克列出了蘋果獲得非獨(dú)家內(nèi)容可能采取的五種方式，并逐一分析了它們的優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)： ????? 1)與擁有視頻傳輸能力的運(yùn)營商合作：我們認(rèn)為美國電話電報(bào)公司（AT&T）、威瑞森（Verizon）、加拿大貝爾（Bell Canada）和羅杰斯（Rogers）等公司已開始測試iTV。以上運(yùn)營商不但具備有線視頻傳輸能力，而且還具備蘋果夢寐以求的無線傳輸能力。 ????? 優(yōu)點(diǎn)：執(zhí)行簡單。選擇面廣而且視頻質(zhì)量高。 ????? 缺點(diǎn)：這些運(yùn)營商的有線視頻網(wǎng)僅僅覆蓋了美國一小部分地區(qū)。 ????? 2)與多業(yè)務(wù)運(yùn)營商（MSO）合作：我們不確定有線電視公司是否會與蘋果iTV合作。 ????? 優(yōu)點(diǎn)：選擇面廣而且視頻質(zhì)量高。 ????? 缺點(diǎn)：雖然很多有線電視公司都已開始與無線運(yùn)營商展開合作【例如，康卡斯特（Comcast）和時(shí)代華納有線（Time Warner Cable）最近與威瑞森達(dá)成合作】，但不同設(shè)備之間的無縫銜接難度太大。 |
????Amid all the chatter this week about Apple's (AAPL) putative plans to build a standalone TV set -- from Best Buy's leaked customer survey to the Globe and Mail's report that Canadian telcoms are already testing the thing in their labs -- the 23-page report produced by Peter Misek's team at Jefferies International stands out. ????Rather than get distracted by speculation about whether it would be controlled by voice, keyboard, arm waving or all three, Misek focuses on the nut that will be the toughest for any Web-TV manufacturer to crack: how to deliver a critical mass of the best content to its users when and where they want it -- which it to say, anytime, anywhere. ????Misek raises and dismisses three approaches Apple's deal makers might take -- creating content, seeding content, buying exclusive access -- to zero in on what he believes will be the most likely: buying non-exclusive rights in a way that doesn't make Hollywood's content owners nervous. ????"We think an iTunes-type model is the most likely scenario as Apple will pay less for non-exclusive content, provide access to a broader range of content (creating a better user experience) and package everything with a superior user interface and ecosystem. We believe Apple thinks it can win on a level playing field for content." ????Sounds simple, but it gets pretty complicated. Below the fold: Misek's summary of five scenarios by which Apple could acquire non-exclusive content, with their pros and cons. ????? 1) Partner with carriers who have a video offering: we believe the iTV is in the labs at AT&T, Verizon, Bell Canada, and Rogers. All these carriers have fixed line video offerings in addition to the wireless capabilities that Apple desires. ????? Pros: simple to implement. High quality video with wide selection. ????? Cons: the carriers' fixed line video footprint covers only a small part of the U.S. ????? 2) Partner with MSOs: we are less sure if the cable companies will be involved in Apple's iTV plans. ????? Pros: high quality video with wide selection. ????? Cons: while many cable companies have wireless partnerships with a carrier (e.g., Comcast and Time Warner Cable recently linking with Verizon), a seamless hand-off between different devices would be more complicated. |
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