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專欄 - 蘋果2_0

iPhone、Android全面夾擊,黑莓節(jié)節(jié)敗退

Philip Elmer-DeWitt 2011年06月22日

蘋果(Apple)公司內(nèi)部流傳著一個(gè)老笑話,那就是史蒂夫·喬布斯周圍是一片“現(xiàn)實(shí)扭曲力場(chǎng)”:你離他太近的話,就會(huì)相信他所說(shuō)的話。蘋果的數(shù)百萬(wàn)用戶中已經(jīng)有不少成了該公司的“信徒”,而很多蘋果投資者也賺得盆滿缽滿。不過(guò),Elmer-DeWitt認(rèn)為,在報(bào)道蘋果公司時(shí)有點(diǎn)懷疑精神不是壞事。聽他的應(yīng)該沒錯(cuò)。要知道,他自從1982年就開始報(bào)道蘋果、觀察史蒂夫·喬布斯經(jīng)營(yíng)該公司。
RIM不得不降低其指導(dǎo)性收入預(yù)測(cè),并進(jìn)行裁員,這并非偶然。

來(lái)源:Needham & Co.

????上周五,黑莓手機(jī)生產(chǎn)商Research in Motion大幅下調(diào)了其2012年的指導(dǎo)性收入預(yù)測(cè),并警告即將進(jìn)行裁員,消息一出,該公司便遭到分析師們的圍攻。比如巴倫周刊(Barron's)網(wǎng)站的這篇文章。

????大部分分析師都認(rèn)可,是蘋果(Apple)iPhone和谷歌(Google)Android使得黑莓(BlackBerry)被邊緣化。但他們都沒有投資銀行和資產(chǎn)管理公司Needham的查理?烏爾夫直率,烏爾夫?qū)⒆约褐驴蛻舻膱?bào)告命名為《RIMM:你那一招不管用了,你該何去何從?》("RIMM: What do you do when your one trick no longer works?")。

????該報(bào)告最關(guān)鍵的一段如下:

????眼見黑莓在美國(guó)智能手機(jī)市場(chǎng)的份額開始下滑,2009年,Research in Motion做出了一個(gè)戰(zhàn)略性決策:試圖用國(guó)際市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)來(lái)彌補(bǔ)美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的份額流失。黑莓在美國(guó)市場(chǎng)的份額減少最初表現(xiàn)是美國(guó)最大的電信運(yùn)營(yíng)商Verizon將其主打品牌從黑莓變成Android。Verizon曾將黑莓作為iPhone的替代品進(jìn)行推廣,希望依靠穩(wěn)定的“買一送一”促銷攻勢(shì)支撐黑莓的銷量。然而,這一策略事與愿違,因?yàn)樵谌藗冄壑?,黑莓與iPhone完全不是一回事。在2009年第四季度,Verizon開始力捧Android,據(jù)稱其在Verizon Droid品牌上的花費(fèi)超過(guò)了1億美元。Verizon仍在繼續(xù)進(jìn)行黑莓的“買一送一”活動(dòng),但已不再大肆宣傳,黑莓在Verizon的份額已經(jīng)開始下降。

????譯者:項(xiàng)航

??? The analysts were all over Research in Motion (RIMM) Friday after the company issued sharply lower guidance for 2012 and warned of forthcoming layoffs. See, for example, Barron's take here.

??? Most recognized the role Apple (AAPL)'s iPhone and Google's (GOOG) Android played in marginalizing the BlackBerry. But none of them were quite as blunt as Needham's Charlie Wolf, who titled his note to clients "RIMM: What do you do when your one trick no longer works?"

????The key paragraph:

????Watching BlackBerry's share in the U.S. smartphone market beginning to crumble, Research in Motion made the strategic decision in 2009 to attempt to offset U.S. share losses through growth in international markets. BlackBerry's loss of share in the U.S. initially reflected Verizon's decision to switch its "halo" brand status from BlackBerry to Android. Verizon had promoted BlackBerry as an alternative to the iPhone, relying on a steady barrage of buy-one, get-one- free (BOGO) promotions to bolster BlackBerry sales. But the strategy backfired because there was no mistaking a BlackBerry for an iPhone. In the fourth quarter of 2009, Verizon hitched its wagon to Android, reportedly spending over $100 million to build the Verizon Droid brand. Verizon continued to offer BlackBerry BOGOs. But no longer in the spotlight, BlackBerry's share at Verizon began to recede.

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