在三年半前，艾瑪·希斯科特-詹姆斯曾經(jīng)打算把業(yè)務(wù)拓展到英國(guó)以外。

當(dāng)時(shí)，她旗下成立11年的Little Soap公司在英國(guó)各地的大型超市和藥房銷售沐浴用品。下一步很明顯，從旁邊的愛(ài)爾蘭開(kāi)始，進(jìn)入歐洲的其他地區(qū)。

隨著2016年6月英國(guó)舉行公投決定退出歐盟，擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃戛然而止。由于公投后英鎊貶值，精油等進(jìn)口產(chǎn)品變得更加昂貴，第一個(gè)星期就推高了5%的成本。

Little Soap公司想辦法抵消了額外支出造成的影響，但海外擴(kuò)張的計(jì)劃泡湯了。

“之前跟我們談的人全都靜下來(lái)了?！彼f(shuō)。

然而，希斯科特·詹姆斯認(rèn)為跟其他公司相比，Little Soap的運(yùn)氣已經(jīng)不錯(cuò)。該公司的總部位于田園風(fēng)格的科茨沃爾德地區(qū)，過(guò)去幾年已經(jīng)擴(kuò)張到國(guó)內(nèi)的新商店，客戶和制造業(yè)都在英國(guó)，從而避免了英國(guó)與歐盟未達(dá)成貿(mào)易協(xié)議便脫歐，產(chǎn)品便無(wú)法跨越邊境送給用戶的巨大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。

但政府缺乏清晰的準(zhǔn)備和溝通，沒(méi)有為脫歐后的英國(guó)做好準(zhǔn)備，著實(shí)令人沮喪。

“小企業(yè)需要確定性，我們卻陷入了困境?！毕Ｋ箍铺?詹姆斯說(shuō)。

在全世界排名第五大經(jīng)濟(jì)體的英國(guó)，退出歐盟導(dǎo)致的政治癱瘓已有三年，而且還在持續(xù)。英國(guó)仍然在考慮10月31日要不要退出歐盟，以及達(dá)成協(xié)議再退還是達(dá)不成協(xié)議也堅(jiān)決退。

這只是最近一次期限；3月29日的第一個(gè)期限被延長(zhǎng)，因?yàn)樽h會(huì)一直未能就脫歐計(jì)劃達(dá)成一致。經(jīng)歷種種挫折后，前首相特雷莎·梅辭職，新上臺(tái)的是鮑里斯·約翰遜，他發(fā)誓10月底之前帶領(lǐng)英國(guó)脫離歐盟，即使此舉意味著英國(guó)可能因?yàn)椤盁o(wú)協(xié)議”脫歐出現(xiàn)崩潰，重新啟用世界貿(mào)易組織的貿(mào)易規(guī)則。

Three and a half years ago, Emma Heathcote-James was looking to expand her business beyond Britain.

Her 11-year-old Little Soap Company was selling bath products through major supermarkets and pharmacies across the U.K. The next step was obvious. Using neighboring Ireland as a starting point, the company would enter the rest of Europe.

The vote for Britain to leave the European Union in June 2016 brought those plans to a screeching halt. As the value of the pound plummeted after the referendum, imported products—including essential oils—became more expensive, pushing up costs by 5% in the first week.

The Little Soap Company managed to absorb the added expense, but its export expansion plans evaporated.

“Everyone we’d been chatting to went quite quiet,” she says.

Heathcote-James considers Little Soap lucky compared to others, however. In the years since, the business, headquartered in the idyllic Cotswolds region, has expanded into new stores domestically; and its customers and manufacturing are both based in the U.K., which insulates it from the bigger risk that products won’t be able to cross borders to reach end users if there's no U.K.-EU trade deal after Brexit.

But the lack of clarity and communication from the government on how to prepare for a post-Brexit Britain is frustrating.

“Small businesses need certainty, and we’ve just been hanging in limbo,” Heathcote-James says.

Political paralysis over an exit from the EU has gripped the world’s fifth-largest economy for three years and counting; the U.K. is still figuring out whether it will leave the EU on October 31, and if it will do so with or without a deal.

That is only the most recent deadline; the first of March 29 was extended, as Parliament repeatedly failed to agree on a plan for the country’s departure. After those setbacks, former Prime Minister Theresa May resigned and was replaced by Boris Johnson, who has vowed to take Britain out of the EU by the end of October—even if that means the country crashes out with ‘no deal’, reverting to World Trade Organization trade rules.

但在約翰遜的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，議會(huì)只是進(jìn)一步陷入混亂，隨著國(guó)會(huì)議員排除了“無(wú)協(xié)議”脫歐的可能，約翰遜暫停了議會(huì)，后來(lái)英國(guó)最高法院宣布非法。

一直以來(lái)，脫歐的陰影阻礙了英國(guó)企業(yè)的運(yùn)轉(zhuǎn)，因?yàn)樵S多未知數(shù)抑制了投資增長(zhǎng)，拖累了生產(chǎn)率，也拖延了寶貴的執(zhí)行時(shí)間，原因都是脫歐后英國(guó)的前景與公投結(jié)果剛出來(lái)時(shí)一樣不明朗。

“沒(méi)人在做事，因?yàn)榇蠹叶疾恢涝撟鍪裁??！毕Ｋ箍铺?詹姆斯說(shuō)。

“脫歐也沒(méi)有幫助”

說(shuō)起駭人聽(tīng)聞的經(jīng)濟(jì)事件，“脫歐”公投堪稱歷史性一幕。

不僅脫歐公投出人意料，畢竟民意調(diào)查顯示三分之二的人預(yù)計(jì)英國(guó)會(huì)留在歐盟，由此帶來(lái)的不確定性持續(xù)時(shí)間也比預(yù)期長(zhǎng)，諾丁漢大學(xué)的教授保羅·米茲恩表示，他也是2019年8月一項(xiàng)關(guān)于脫歐對(duì)英國(guó)企業(yè)影響的研究論文的作者。

“如果想找類似的沖擊，唯一真正（可比的）沖擊是1929年。”米茲恩說(shuō)，他在研究中使用了英格蘭銀行從2016年8月以來(lái)收集的企業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)。他表示，1929年的金融危機(jī)恰好趕上1930年代大蕭條之前的關(guān)稅和保護(hù)主義措施，導(dǎo)致情況加劇。

研究表明，在脫歐公投以來(lái)的三年里，投資增長(zhǎng)率比起公投結(jié)果留在歐盟要低11%。與此同時(shí)，生產(chǎn)率下降了多達(dá)5%，主要原因是管理者每周都要花幾個(gè)小時(shí)為脫歐做準(zhǔn)備。

脫歐并不是罪魁禍?zhǔn)?。英?guó)龐大的汽車市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向柴油車，以及電子商務(wù)對(duì)傳統(tǒng)零售商造成的壓力從2016就已經(jīng)開(kāi)始加速，導(dǎo)致兩個(gè)行業(yè)的公司收入下降。不過(guò)，“脫歐也沒(méi)有幫助?！泵灼澏髡f(shuō)。

But under Johnson, Parliament has only fallen further into chaos, as Members of Parliament ruled out a ‘no deal’ scenario, and Johnson suspended Parliament—a move the U.K. Supreme Court later declared illegal.

All the while, the prospect of Brexit has jammed the gears of British businesses—large and small—as its many unknowns have smothered investment growth, hampered productivity, and sidetracked valuable executive time, all for a vision of post-bloc Britain that's nearly as unclear as it was immediately following the vote.

“Nobody’s doing anything, because nobody knows what to do,” Heathcote-James says.

“Brexit hasn’t helped”

As far as shocking economic events go, the Brexit vote stands out as historic.

Not only was the vote to leave the EU largely unexpected—two-thirds of polls predicted Britain would vote to remain—but the uncertainty has lasted longer than anticipated, says Paul Mizen, a University of Nottingham professor and an author of an August 2019 study on the impact of Brexit on British businesses.

“If you look at a shock that’s parallel, the only real [comparable] shock is 1929,” says Mizen, whose study used Bank of England data collected from businesses starting in August 2016. The 1929 financial crash was quickly compounded by tariffs and protective measures ahead of the depression of the 1930s, he says.

In the three years since the Brexit vote, investment growth was 11% lower than it would have been had voters opted to remain, the study says. Meanwhile, productivity declined as much as 5%, largely due to executives diverting several hours a week to Brexit planning.

Brexit isn’t wholly to blame. The shift away from diesel cars in the U.K.’s sizable auto market, as well as pressure from e-commerce on traditional retailers have accelerated since 2016, resulting in falling revenue for companies in both sectors. But “Brexit hasn’t helped,” says Mizen.

英國(guó)與歐盟的分離尚未完成，已然造成了巨額成本，比如在其他國(guó)家開(kāi)設(shè)辦事處以在歐洲站穩(wěn)腳跟，還有在3月脫歐截止日期之前囤積庫(kù)存，即將到來(lái)的10月31日截止日期之前還得再囤積。此外，脫歐也影響了投資、工作崗位招聘、擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃等，打擊了英國(guó)企業(yè)。

“在某種程度上，還影響了公司與海外競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的能力?！泵灼澏髡f(shuō)。

“脫歐病”

兩年前，收入達(dá)2400萬(wàn)英鎊的英國(guó)材料咨詢公司Lucideon開(kāi)始與其位于特倫特河畔斯托克總部附近的地方政府合作，開(kāi)設(shè)先進(jìn)的工業(yè)陶瓷研究中心。工業(yè)陶瓷與裝飾陶瓷不同，廣泛用于從手機(jī)到飛機(jī)引擎的各種零部件。

原本該研究中心將涉及4000萬(wàn)英鎊的投資，Lucideon打算自己投資1000萬(wàn)英鎊。但由于英國(guó)沒(méi)有按計(jì)劃3月退出歐盟，雙方的會(huì)議開(kāi)始很難推進(jìn)。

“就是無(wú)法談了?！盠ucideon的首席執(zhí)行官托尼·金塞拉表示?！耙?yàn)閹缀趺看伍_(kāi)會(huì)都會(huì)出現(xiàn)變化。”脫歐影響了政府的關(guān)注點(diǎn)和時(shí)間，他說(shuō)。

The U.K.’s split from the EU has yet to be consummated, but it’s already spawned myriad costs for companies, like opening offices in other countries to keep a foothold in Europe, and stockpiling inventory ahead of Brexit’s initial March deadline—and again ahead of the upcoming October 31 cutoff. Plus, it’s hit businesses by way of investments not made, open jobs not filled, and expansions pared back.

“To some extent, this is something that’s affecting the firm’s ability to compete with its rivals overseas,” Mizen says.

“The Brexit disease”

Two years ago, Lucideon—a U.K. materials consultancy with 24 million pounds in revenue—started working with the regional government near its Stoke-on-Trent headquarters to open a research center for advanced technical ceramics. The material, unlike decorative ceramics, is used to make components in everything from mobile phones to airplane engines.

The research center was to be a 40 million pound investment, and Lucideon was looking to invest up to 10 million pounds of its own money. But when the U.K. didn’t exit the EU in March 2019 as planned, the meetings started going nowhere.

It has “just not happened,” says Lucideon CEO Tony Kinsella. “That’s because almost every meeting gets changed," as Brexit diverts the government’s attention and time, he says.

與此同時(shí)，10年前Lucideon有40%的收入來(lái)自于歐盟，如今也要調(diào)整。自從脫歐公投以來(lái)，業(yè)務(wù)雖然也有所擴(kuò)張，但主要是在美國(guó)和亞洲?，F(xiàn)在公司約20%的收入來(lái)自于歐洲，遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)落后于來(lái)自美國(guó)的35%。

“脫歐病并沒(méi)有阻止商業(yè)投資，”金塞拉說(shuō)。“只是在改變資金投向的選擇。”

即便如此，目前 Lucideon為脫歐做準(zhǔn)備已經(jīng)花費(fèi)10萬(wàn)英鎊。舉例來(lái)說(shuō)，公司在都柏林開(kāi)設(shè)了辦事處，作為通往歐盟其他市場(chǎng)的門戶。如果出現(xiàn)無(wú)協(xié)議脫歐的局面，公司將失去歐洲認(rèn)證機(jī)構(gòu)的證書(shū)，進(jìn)一步打擊收入，因?yàn)橹挥蝎@得認(rèn)證的公司才能夠宣布產(chǎn)品符合歐盟規(guī)則。

金塞拉樂(lè)觀地認(rèn)為，脫歐后的業(yè)務(wù)發(fā)展仍然會(huì)保持良好。但持續(xù)三年的等候，還有最后期限一再拖延已經(jīng)讓人精疲力竭。

“感覺(jué)就像凌遲?！彼f(shuō)?！拌b于議會(huì)各種政治鬧劇不斷，我認(rèn)為英國(guó)希望繼續(xù)延長(zhǎng)（歐盟成員國(guó)資格）三、四個(gè)月，簡(jiǎn)直太愚蠢?！?/p>

保持沉默

許多大公司向客戶和股東保證已經(jīng)為脫歐做好了準(zhǔn)備，但很少有人愿意討論已經(jīng)造成的影響。

一家著名的行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)告訴《財(cái)富》雜志，在圍繞脫歐高度兩極分化的辯論中，許多成員不想因?yàn)橛懻撁摎W潛在的消極影響得罪客戶。（協(xié)會(huì)要求不透露姓名，以便坦率地私下發(fā)表觀點(diǎn)。）

在《財(cái)富》世界500強(qiáng)的17家英國(guó)公司中，除一家外，其他公司均拒絕置評(píng)，也沒(méi)有回應(yīng)《財(cái)富》雜志的問(wèn)詢。多家公司表示已經(jīng)決定不談?wù)撁摎W。（發(fā)表評(píng)論的只有礦業(yè)巨頭力拓集團(tuán)，力拓表示其業(yè)務(wù)都在英國(guó)以外，預(yù)計(jì)不會(huì)受到影響。）

然而，脫歐導(dǎo)致的業(yè)務(wù)癱瘓跡象比較明顯。8月，世界500強(qiáng)排名第90位的匯豐推出10億美元回購(gòu)時(shí)，首席財(cái)務(wù)官邵偉信表示，“考慮到脫歐造成的不確定性，回購(gòu)10億美元是相當(dāng)保守之舉”，也就是說(shuō)如果大環(huán)境沒(méi)有那么動(dòng)蕩，回購(gòu)金額可能更高。2月，世界500強(qiáng)排名第336位的巴克萊表示，已經(jīng)劃撥1.95億美元應(yīng)對(duì)“硬”脫歐帶來(lái)的潛在問(wèn)題，一旦硬脫歐，英國(guó)將無(wú)法輕易進(jìn)入歐盟單一市場(chǎng)。

脫歐不確定性的涓流效應(yīng)之一就是可能影響各種規(guī)模的公司，也導(dǎo)致消費(fèi)者情緒轉(zhuǎn)變。盡管在2016年剛公投之后，英國(guó)對(duì)產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的需求驚人地強(qiáng)勁，但隨后幾個(gè)月里英國(guó)對(duì)產(chǎn)品和服務(wù)的需求有所下降。

9月，市場(chǎng)研究公司YouGov表示，英國(guó)的消費(fèi)者信心處于六年來(lái)的最低點(diǎn)；市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)IHS Markit的報(bào)告稱，家庭對(duì)個(gè)人財(cái)務(wù)的關(guān)注度達(dá)到了六年來(lái)的最高水平；英國(guó)工業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)也表示，8月的零售額下降速度達(dá)2008以來(lái)最快，此后一直疲軟。

“真的值得嗎？”

2016年6月，當(dāng)英國(guó)投票決定脫歐時(shí)，位于倫敦的湯姆·布朗批發(fā)花店的財(cái)務(wù)總監(jiān)約翰·戴維森就已經(jīng)知道，花卉生意將遭逢巨大威脅。

湯姆·布朗花店的收入為1500萬(wàn)英鎊，在全國(guó)有四家分店，幾乎所有花卉都是通過(guò)歐盟進(jìn)口，主要是通過(guò)歐洲花卉中心荷蘭，進(jìn)口來(lái)源包括南美和非洲。

公投后，隨著英鎊走軟，成本立即飆升。按業(yè)內(nèi)人士的說(shuō)法，截至今年年底，按枝計(jì)算花卉價(jià)格上漲了20%。2016年上半年底前，即脫歐公投之前，湯姆·布朗的客戶購(gòu)買的數(shù)量較2015年同期增長(zhǎng)了6.5%。下半年脫歐公投之后勢(shì)頭急轉(zhuǎn)直下，銷售額跌了7.3%。

接下來(lái)幾年里，花卉銷售與英國(guó)政治基本保持同步。2017年年底隨著脫歐臨近銷售上漲，2018年繼續(xù)走強(qiáng)，2019年則變慢。

戴維森表示，倫敦的主店里已經(jīng)暫時(shí)停止招聘。他說(shuō)最近幾個(gè)月感覺(jué)變得安靜，送貨速度也有所放緩。

Meanwhile, Lucideon—which got 40% of its revenue from the EU ten years ago—was undergoing a shift. Since the Brexit vote, it has expanded, but mostly in the U.S. and Asia. Now, about 20% of its revenue comes from Europe, far behind the U.S.’s 35% share.

“The Brexit disease has not stopped the business investing,” Kinsella says. “It’s just shifting where we’ve chosen to put that money.”

Even so, preparing for Brexit has cost Lucideon a hundred thousand pounds so far. For instance, it’s opened a Dublin office as a gateway to the rest of the EU market. And in the case of a no-deal Brexit, it would lose its certification as a European Notified Body—a standing that allows it to declare products to be in conformity with EU rules—which would deal another blow to its revenue.

Kinsella is optimistic that the business will be fine post-Brexit. But three years of anticipation and deadline delays has been draining.

“It’s death by a thousand cuts,” he says. “For all the Westminster political shenanigans, I think the nation wants another three-, four-month extension [to EU membership] like it wants a hole in its head.”

Staying mum

While many large companies have reassured clients and shareholders that they have prepared for Brexit, few appear willing to discuss the impact it has already had.

One prominent trade association told Fortune that, in the highly polarized debate around Brexit, many of its members don't want to run the risk of losing customers by speaking out about potential downsides. (The association asked not to be named in order to candidly express such views, which were spoken in private.)

Of the 17 U.K.-based companies on Fortune’s Global 500 list, all but one either declined to comment or did not respond to Fortune's inquiries. Several companies said they had decided not to speak about Brexit at all. (The one company that did comment—mining giant Rio Tinto Group—said its operations are all outside the U.K. and so didn’t expect to be affected.)

However, some hints of Brexit paralysis are evident. When HSBC—No. 90 on the Global 500—launched a billion-dollar buyback in August, Chief Financial Officer Ewen Stevenson said the move was “appropriately conservative given Brexit uncertainties”—meaning it might have been bigger if the environment wasn’t so shaky. And in February, Barclays—No. 336—said it had set aside $195 million to cover potential problems arising from a “hard” Brexit, in which the U.K. would lose easy access to the EU’s single market.

One trickle-down effect of Brexit uncertainty that’s likely to hit firms of all sizes is the shift in consumer sentiment. Though surprisingly robust immediately after the 2016 vote, British demand for products and services has waned in subsequent months.

In September, market researcher YouGov said consumer sentiment in the U.K. was at a six-year low; IHS Markit reported a six-year high in household concern over personal finances; and the Confederation of British Industry said retail sales remained weak, after dropping in August at the fastest pace since 2008.

“Is it really worth it?”

When Britain voted for Brexit in June 2016, John Davidson, the finance director of London-based Tom Brown Wholesale Florists, knew it would be a major threat to the flower business.

With about 15 million pounds in revenue and four locations countrywide, Tom Brown imports almost all of its flowers through the EU—mostly through the Netherlands, Europe’s flower hub, including flowers originally imported from South America and Africa.

After the vote, costs immediately jumped as the pound weakened, pushing up the price of flowers—measured in industry parlance by the stem—by as much as 20% by the end of the year. In the first half of 2016—before the Brexit vote—Tom Brown had seen customers buy 6.5% more stems compared to the same period in 2015. Sales in the second half, after the Brexit vote, went in the opposite direction, falling 7.3%.

In the following years, flower sales fluctuated alongside British politics: picking up in late 2017 as a Brexit deal seemed imminent, getting stronger in 2018, and then flattening out in 2019.

In his key London store location, Davidson says he’s paused hiring for now: in recent months, he says the warehouse feels quieter and deliveries have slowed down.

戴維森說(shuō)，目前湯姆·布朗店可以在上午11點(diǎn)前從荷蘭訂購(gòu)鮮花，12小時(shí)后收到，顧客的預(yù)期也是如此。脫歐可能導(dǎo)致延遲和額外費(fèi)用，主要由于脫歐后進(jìn)口鮮花需要大量文件，而之前只要簡(jiǎn)單下個(gè)訂單就行。

“新一代花店越來(lái)越少?！彼f(shuō)。“面對(duì)種種不確定，老一代花卉商也在想：‘真的值得嗎？’”

克服“脫歐疲勞”

其他跡象表明，在過(guò)去三年內(nèi)，招聘、應(yīng)聘、建筑和房地產(chǎn)方面都付出了代價(jià)。

9月，專業(yè)人士獵頭公司SThree 發(fā)布報(bào)告稱，獵頭公司從英國(guó)和愛(ài)爾蘭招聘單位賺取的季度凈費(fèi)用下降了7%，前一季度下降了12%。與此同時(shí)，大型合同工機(jī)構(gòu)Staffline發(fā)布了盈利警告，稱由于需求減少，客戶逐漸減少歐盟招納合同工。

有些公司，特別是科技公司，在招聘時(shí)根本找不到求職者。

科技行業(yè)協(xié)會(huì)techUK負(fù)責(zé)研究脫歐政策的尼爾·羅斯說(shuō)，作為協(xié)會(huì)成員之一的一家數(shù)據(jù)中心運(yùn)營(yíng)商最近告訴他，過(guò)去兩年都沒(méi)有歐洲大陸的求職者應(yīng)聘。

“能夠招到人才是企業(yè)擴(kuò)張的基礎(chǔ)?！绷_斯說(shuō)。

同時(shí)，今年9月，建筑和基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施服務(wù)公司Keir Group 警告稱，由于客戶要等脫歐事項(xiàng)確定，推遲項(xiàng)目關(guān)鍵決策，導(dǎo)致收入持平。

房地產(chǎn)服務(wù)公司世邦魏理仕則估計(jì)，由于投資者對(duì)英國(guó)何時(shí)脫離歐盟以及退出具體情況心存疑慮，2019年商業(yè)地產(chǎn)價(jià)值將下跌3.8%。

不過(guò)，世邦魏理仕英國(guó)研究團(tuán)隊(duì)的執(zhí)行董事邁爾斯·吉布森表示，由于脫歐事項(xiàng)久而未決，一些公司已經(jīng)決定先采取行動(dòng)。

“毫無(wú)疑問(wèn)，人們對(duì)脫歐都有些厭倦了，只想趕緊做出決定，實(shí)在不想再等?！彼f(shuō)。

對(duì)于Little Soap公司的希斯科特-詹姆斯來(lái)說(shuō)，只能重新將業(yè)務(wù)重點(diǎn)放在英國(guó)市場(chǎng)，曾經(jīng)雄心勃勃的海外擴(kuò)張計(jì)劃前途未卜。

“先暫停一下吧?！彼f(shuō)。不管怎樣，她還是充滿希望。畢竟，就算英國(guó)退出歐盟，“人們還是要用肥皂的?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Currently, Tom Brown can order fresh flowers from the Netherlands by 11 a.m. and receive them about 12 hours later—and that’s what customers expect, Davidson says. Brexit could cause delays and additional costs, largely due to reams of paperwork required to import flowers that previously needed only a simple order request.

“The newer generation of florists are fewer and far between,” he says. “And some of that uncertainty is making the older generation of florists think, ‘Is it really worth it?’”

Fighting off “Brexit fatigue”

There are other signs that the last three years have taken a toll, across hiring, recruiting, construction, and real estate.

In September, specialist recruiter SThree reported a 7% drop in quarterly net fees—the fees recruiters collect for successful placements—for its U.K. and Ireland unit, after reporting a 12% drop in the previous quarter. Meanwhile Staffline, a major contract-worker agency, issued a profit warning due to reduced demand, noting that its customers were reducing their exposure to temporary labor from the EU.

Some companies—especially in tech—simply can’t attract applicants when they want to hire.

Neil Ross, the lead on Brexit policy at industry association techUK, said one member of the organization, a data center operator, recently told him it had attracted no job applicants from mainland Europe in the last two years.

“Being able to recruit talent is fundamental to companies’ ability to expand,” says Ross.

Meanwhile, construction and infrastructure services company Keir Group warned in September of flat revenue due to clients putting off key decisions on projects until they know what’s happening with Brexit.

And real estate services company CBRE estimates the value of commercial real estate will fall by 3.8% in 2019 due to investors’ wariness over when Britain will leave the bloc and what the departure will look like.

Still, the lengthy duration of the Brexit uncertainty has prompted some companies to move forward regardless, says Miles Gibson, executive director of the U.K. research team at CBRE.

“There is no doubt that people are getting a bit of Brexit fatigue, and making decisions anyways, because they can’t wait,” he says.

For Heathcote-James of the Little Soap Company, refocusing the business on its existing U.K. market has pushed her once-ambitious export plans into the unknowable future.

“That’s on pause for the moment,” she says. Still, she remains hopeful. Even in Brexit Britain, “everyone needs a bar of soap.”