国产一精品一AV一免费,亚洲成AV人片不卡无码,AV永久天堂一区二区三区,国产激情久久久久影院

立即打開
蘋果的新流媒體服務對股價影響幾何?各方看法不一

蘋果的新流媒體服務對股價影響幾何?各方看法不一

Anne Sraders 2019-09-17
蘋果備受關注的廉價流媒體服務和新科技是否足以抵消額外關稅的影響?

今天,蘋果是華爾街當仁不讓的香餑餑。

這家科技巨頭的股價在9月11日盤中上漲了近3%,只要你昨天在網上,不管是以什么樣的方式或形式,可能都已經知道了個中原因。蘋果(股票代碼:AAPL)發(fā)布了一系列新產品,包括新款iPhone,以及可能是人們最為關注的新流媒體服務Apple TV+的價格。

蘋果向服務轉移的這一顯著調整(包括視頻游戲服務Apple Arcade以及上述Apple TV+)展示了該公司是一位多面能手。事實上,其視頻訂閱服務令人驚訝的低價(4.99美元,低于華爾街預測的7.99-9.99美元以及其他主流視頻流服務的價格)讓很多分析師對其充滿信心。

然而,并非所有人都持樂觀態(tài)度。過去的一年中,蘋果在中國的疲軟業(yè)績拖累了整體業(yè)績,貿易戰(zhàn)讓這位科技巨人遭受了重創(chuàng),征收額外關稅的威脅可能會進一步降低中國的銷量。再者,今年早些時候蘋果約翰·艾維斯的離職也讓很多人對于公司未來的發(fā)展方向感到不安。

蘋果備受關注的廉價流媒體服務和新科技是否足以抵消額外關稅的影響?以下是有關看多與看空的對比分析:

看多派

D.A. Davidson分析師湯姆·福特負責蘋果和其他22家公司。對于蘋果,他當前給出了“買入”評級,目標價格270美元/股。

總的來說,發(fā)布會給了我們更大的信心,因為從長期來看,蘋果有能力通過各種舉措,降低自身對iPhone銷售的依賴性。這些舉措包括:[1]涵蓋支付在內的金融服務;[2]健康;以及[3]專屬視頻內容(Apple TV+)。

我們對自己做出的買入評級充滿信心,原因在于,人們的期許已經降至最低……[而且]這一點與昨天發(fā)布的新iPhone有關,可謂是歷史新低。不妨想一下,經歷了這么多年的發(fā)布會,投資者都已經司空見慣了……而且發(fā)布會結束后,我們更感興趣的是 Apple TV+的定價,而不是iPhone的新參數。

明年,如果蘋果能夠推出5G手機,那么智能手機業(yè)務便可以繼續(xù)保持其單位增長,而且救星就要來了。蘋果表示,公司將開展一個多年期計劃,將蘋果對智能手機銷售的依賴性降到最低。蘋果的這一辭令引發(fā)了投資者異常熱烈的反響。上一財年,智能手機銷售額占營收的6%(這個比例是否有問題?)。

好消息在于,智能手機市場的飽和正在推動蘋果尋找新機遇,而且,蘋果也開始著手應對這一挑戰(zhàn)。

我們還認為,[iPhone] 11的銷量可能會超出預期,而且我們開玩笑說,蘋果不妨使用這樣的口號:“趕快在政府加稅,iPhone 12漲價之前購買新iPhone吧?!?/p>

中國風險依然是蘋果最大的隱患,因為公司的供應鏈有很大一部分在中國,而且蘋果大約20%的銷售業(yè)績也源自中國。在我們看來,鑒于蘋果在這兩個國家的影響力,他們有能力說服美國和中國政府。不管你怎么看待這件事情,美國政府倒是給了蘋果一個大禮,讓公司可以在新關稅實施之前銷售iPhone 11。我認為,大不了下一代5G智能手機的價格會加上一定的關稅。同時,適用蘋果的準則至少也同樣適用其他廠商,他們可能會有機會完全擺脫這些關稅。

[就Apple TV+]而言,還記得自己是否說過這樣的話嗎:“在所有產品中,蘋果都是最便宜的”。估計你是想不起來,因為到目前為止,沒有人會得出這個結論。但[Apple TV+]是最便宜的,我是這么認為的,而且我認為這是向Netflix發(fā)起的挑戰(zhàn),很了不起。

我們看到,未來12個月存在著三大潛在股價刺激因素:[1]iPhone銷售的反彈(預測約占2019財年第四季度營收的52% ,而2018財年同期營收占比為60%,手機依然是蘋果最重要的產品)導致運營業(yè)績超過預期;[2]新動議導致業(yè)績好于預期,包括蘋果手表和Apple TV+,以及其他服務;[3]美國稅法改革之后加速回購的舉措以及派息額度的增加。

看空派

Edward D. Jones 分析師羅根·普克負責蘋果和其他18家公司,目前對蘋果給出了“持有”評級。

我認為就Apple TV+而言,這是個非常利好的消息,尤其是其上線日期,當然還有定價。不利因素在于,如果顧客現在購買,可以獲得一年的免費試用。因此該服務第一年的財務影響非常有限。此外,盡管定價十分給力,但該定價會使其財務影響力受到進一步的限制。從這一點來看,該服務更多的是為了“打造生態(tài)系統(tǒng)”,而不是“我們如何才能實現財務增長目標?!?/p>

尤其談到新發(fā)布的iPhone,阻力會比以往更大,原因很簡單,盡管其價格較上一款iPhone略有下降,但這款iPhone沒有5G功能,然而其中國的競爭對手都已經配備了這一技術,何況這些手機的功能非常豐富,而且價格要便宜的多。因此,我認為在明年其5G手機出來之前,蘋果在這一輪會失去一些市場份額。

在近期內,[貿易戰(zhàn)]也是阻力之一。從長期來看,我們認為貿易戰(zhàn)最終會得到解決,因此從長遠來看貿易戰(zhàn)不會造成太大的影響。

由于期望都放在了明年的iPhone上,因此今年的iPhone難以引發(fā)人們的興趣。其他產品的更新可能會有所幫助,但Apple Arcade和Apple TV+的財務影響十分有限,因此我認為在5G手機出來之前,iPhone業(yè)務的增速會低于以往。

不管成功與否,我都會繼續(xù)關注 Apple Arcade,當然還有Apple TV+。我可以確定的是,蘋果在公布用戶數量方面不會有所遮掩。很顯然,這是蘋果希望投資者關注的領域。盡管我們完全有理由說Apple TV+的價格非常平易近人,而且消費者也會訂閱,但與此同時,正是基于這個原因,消費者不大可能取消其他視頻流服務的訂閱。由于成本只增加了5美元,因此就算我想訂閱Apple TV+,我也犯不著為此為難,并取消Netflix。(財富中文網)

譯者:馮豐

審校:夏林

Apple has certainly been the apple of Wall Street's eye today.

The tech giant's stock popped almost 3% by intraday trading Wednesday, and if you were on the internet in any way, shape, or form yesterday, you probably know why—Apple (ticker: AAPL) showcased a variety of new products including new iPhones and, perhaps most talked about, the price of their new streaming service Apple TV+. (You can get a full recap here).

The notable shift to services (including Apple Arcade and the aforementioned Apple TV+) shows the company isn't just a one-trick pony. In fact, the astonishingly low price of their TV service (at $4.99, which is below Street estimates of $7.99-$9.99 and the major streaming services) is making many analysts bullish.

But not everyone sees upside. Apple's struggles in China over the past year have weighed on the company, the trade war is hitting the tech giant hard, and the threat of additional tariffs could further weaken China sales for the tech behemoth. Plus, the departure of Apple's Jony Ives earlier this year had many on edge about the direction of the company moving forward.

Is Apple's eye-catching cheap streaming service and new tech enough to stave off the weight of more tariffs? Here's the Bull vs. Bear case.

Bull

Analyst Tom Forte at D.A. Davidson covers Apple and 22 other companies, and currently has a 'buy' rating on the company with a price target of $270 per share.

Overall, we left the event more confident in the company's long-term ability to reduce its dependence on iPhone sales, including via its efforts in: [one], financial services/including payments, [two], healthcare, and [three], proprietary video content (Apple TV+).

We feel very good about our buy rating, and the reason is because expectations have never been lower, ... [and] as it pertains to the iPhone yesterday, were historically low. You think about all the years they’ve had that event, ... and coming out of the event, we were more interested in the pricing of Apple TV+ than the new specs on the iPhone.

Next year, if they’re able to have a 5G device, that could resume unit growth for smartphones—help is on the way. And investors are surprisingly warmly embracing the narrative at Apple, which is the company is engaged in a multi-year process to minimize its dependence on smartphone sales, which were 6% of revenue in the last fiscal year.

The good news when it comes to the saturation of the smartphone market is it's pushing Apple to pursue new opportunities, and ... Apple is taking on the challenge.

We also think that sales for the [iPhone] 11 may exceed expectations, and we jokingly say that Apple’s tagline should be, ‘buy the [iPhone] 11 before the government raises the price of the 12’ because of tariffs.

The China risk is still the most significant risk for the company when you think about both their supply chain and the fact that, give or take, 20% of their sales are to Chinese consumers. The company ... in our opinion, [has] the ability to lobby both the U.S. and the Chinese government because of their influence in both countries. Phrase it however you want, but the U.S. gave them a gift which was the ability to sell the iPhone 11 prior to the implementation of the tariffs. I think that, at the maximum, the next [generation] 5G device will have some element of tariff priced into it, and at a minimum, the same rules are applied to Apple as for everyone else, and they may find the ability to completely wiggle out of these tariffs.

[In terms of Apple TV+], when was the last time you ever said, ‘Apple was the least expensive option’ in anything? Never. That’s a statement that, up until now, we were never able to say. [Apple TV+] is the least expensive. That is, to me, why I see this as a shot across the bow at Netflix ... and [is] remarkable.

We see three potential catalysts for shares over the next 12-month period: stronger-than-expected operating results from [one], a rebound in iPhone sales (forecasted at roughly 52% of 4QFY19 sales versus 60% of FY18 revenues, it remains Apple’s most significant product); [two], better-than-expected results from its newer initiatives, including the Apple Watch and Apple TV+ as well as its other service efforts; and [three], an accelerated repurchase effort and increase in dividends following the changes to U.S tax code.

Bear

Analyst Logan Purk at Edward D. Jones covers Apple and 18 other companies, and currently has a 'hold' rating on the company.

I think the headlines are really positive in terms of Apple TV+, particularly with the launch date, and then of course pricing. The headwind is if customers make purchases now, they get it free for a year. The financial impact is pretty limited at least for the first year. Further, while the pricing is strong, once again, the financial impact is now further limited. This becomes more of a, ‘we’re building out the ecosystem’ and less of a ‘how we can move the needle financially moving forward.’

Especially this cycle of the iPhone, the headwinds are going to be bigger than usual just because the product they have now, while the price is a little cheaper relative to past cycles of the iPhone, lacks the 5G capabilities that its competitors already have [in China]. Not to mention that those phones are very feature-rich and they’re also substantially cheaper, so I think Apple stands to lose some share over this next cycle until their 5G phone hopefully comes out next year.

In the near term, [the trade war] is a bit of a headwind. Longer term, our view is that the trade situation is ultimately resolved, so longer term we don’t see it as too big of an impact.

Looking forward over this next cycle of the iPhone, ... this cycle will be muted. The refresh of the other products helped some, but the financial impact from Apple Arcade and Apple TV+ is limited, so I think going forward the business is going to be lower growth than usual until we get this 5G refresh.

I’d keep an eye on the success or lack thereof of the uptake in Apple Arcade and of course Apple TV+, and I’m sure they will not be shy in sharing subscriber numbers. That’s clearly where they want investor focus to be. While it's easy to say Apple TV+ is very affordable, customers will sign up—at the same time, it’s very affordable, customers are less likely to drop other subscription services. Because if it’s an incremental $5, I don’t need to cancel Netflix to really make this decision if I want it.

掃描二維碼下載財富APP
普安县| 比如县| 三亚市| 龙泉市| 南安市| 阿城市| 青岛市| 济南市| 泊头市| 高清| 拉萨市| 丁青县| 永昌县| 交城县| 堆龙德庆县| 沿河| 故城县| 全南县| 梅河口市| 墨脱县| 武宁县| 内丘县| 甘南县| 张家口市| 涟水县| 西乡县| 广西| 玉田县| 闵行区| 锦屏县| 鸡泽县| 襄汾县| 上杭县| 乌什县| 遵义市| 承德县| 泸西县| 赤壁市| 印江| 班戈县| 祁门县|