參加達(dá)沃斯論壇的商界精英們，對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)的信心水平較之前一年再次下降。

據(jù)普華永道最新調(diào)查顯示，全球僅有27%的CEO認(rèn)為，2016年全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將有所好轉(zhuǎn)。一年前這一比例為37%；2014年，CEO們的信心最高，達(dá)到了44%。這家會(huì)計(jì)咨詢公司對(duì)1300多名高管進(jìn)行了調(diào)查，并在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇正式開幕后的第一個(gè)晚上，發(fā)布了調(diào)查結(jié)果。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇每年在瑞士召開。

美國(guó)CEO們明顯更加悲觀。僅有12%的美國(guó)CEO預(yù)計(jì)，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)將在2016年有所好轉(zhuǎn)，一年前這一比例高達(dá)55%。此外，有27%表示全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)將減速。

最近，大宗商品市場(chǎng)的下跌，已經(jīng)表明全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速正在放緩。事實(shí)上，我們很難得知CEO的態(tài)度是對(duì)市場(chǎng)下跌的反應(yīng)，還是源自客戶的反饋或者其他商業(yè)統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)。實(shí)際上，有35%的全球CEO認(rèn)為，他們的公司在未來12個(gè)月將保持增長(zhǎng)，但這較一年前的46%也有所下降。

普華永道主席戴瑞禮表示，該事務(wù)所在12月份進(jìn)行了該項(xiàng)調(diào)查。但考慮到2015年底以來的市場(chǎng)表現(xiàn)，他預(yù)計(jì)，CEO們的信心水平可能更低。

調(diào)查的預(yù)測(cè)值存在一個(gè)問題。在普華永道2013年的調(diào)查中，僅有20%的CEO相信經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)率會(huì)提高。但當(dāng)年的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)卻實(shí)現(xiàn)了大幅增長(zhǎng)。

奇怪的是，CEO們最大的擔(dān)憂似乎并非源自經(jīng)濟(jì)方面。CEO們提出的給公司帶來最大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的原因，可以解讀成企業(yè)界的各種不滿。近80%的CEO表示，他們擔(dān)心過度監(jiān)管，69%的CEO擔(dān)心稅費(fèi)提高的威脅。在商業(yè)方面，61%的CEO擔(dān)心網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全，排在了第一位。

戴瑞禮表示：“即便將調(diào)查結(jié)果分開解讀，我們也可以明顯看出，CEO對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的信心水平相比前一年有了顯著下降?！保ㄘ?cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者：劉進(jìn)龍/汪皓

The Davos man is, once again, less confident than he was a year ago.

Only 27% of CEOs around the world think the global economy will improve in 2016, according to a new survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers. That was down from 37% a year ago; confidence peaked 2014 at 44%. The accounting and consulting firm released the survey of more than 1,300 top executives on the first official night of the World Economic Forum, the global confab held each year in Switzerland.

U.S. CEOs are strikingly more pessimistic. Just 12% of them predicted the world economy would improve in 2016, which was down from 55% a year ago. What’s more, 27% said global economic growth is likely to decline.

The recent drop in commodities markets has been suggesting that the global economy could be slowing. Indeed, it’s hard to know whether the CEO attitudes are a reaction to the drop in markets, or a result of them reporting back what they see from customers or other business statistics. Indeed, 35% of all CEOs thought their own company would grow in the next 12 months, but even that was down from 46% a year ago.

PwC’s chairman, Dennis Nally, noted that the survey was taken in December. Given what markets have done since the end of 2015, he said he would expect that confidence had dropped even further.

And there was a question about the survey’s predictive value. Only 20% of CEOs were confident growth would increase when PwC did the survey in 2013. Yet world growth rose that year.

Oddly, the biggest concern among CEOs did not appear to be driven by the economy. The list of reasons CEOs said were the biggest risks to their businesses reads as the typical laundry list of corporate complaints. Nearly 80% said they were worried about overregulation, and 69% cited the threat of higher taxes. Among business concerns, 61% said they were worried about cybersecurity, which was the No. 1 business concern.

“Even when you pull the survey apart, it’s clear the confidence level of CEO was down in a significant way from last year,” says Nally.