市場調(diào)研公司尼爾森的最新調(diào)查，證實了一個已成為傳統(tǒng)看法的事實：智能機正在步步為贏，傳統(tǒng)電視則節(jié)節(jié)敗退。在電視行業(yè)最想獲得的18歲至34歲年齡組觀眾中，這一現(xiàn)象尤其明顯。

尼爾森的調(diào)查顯示，傳統(tǒng)電視在各年齡組的收視率在2009年—2010年度達到峰值，自此之后一路下滑。在2009年—2010年度之前，電視觀眾自1949年以來每年都在增長。

此項調(diào)查是尼爾森首次嘗試對傳統(tǒng)電視、網(wǎng)絡、手機以及其它設備上的視頻觀看行為給予綜合評估。數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年5月，在18歲至34歲年齡組中，智能機、平板電腦以及流媒體機頂盒、游戲主機等電視連接設備的使用量同比增長了25%以上，達到每分鐘850萬人左右。相比之下，同年齡組的電視觀看人數(shù)下降10%至每分鐘840萬人。

很明顯，在用戶花在智能機、平板電腦以及電視連接設備的時間中，部分用于觀看電視節(jié)目。但是在許多情況下，觀眾將本花在電視觀看上的時間用在了智能機等移動設備上，這些設備上出現(xiàn)的廣告被用戶跳過或移除，這大幅影響了尼爾森的客戶群。

A new study of media and attention by Nielsen Co. confirms what has now become conventional wisdom: Smartphones are winning and traditional television is losing, especially when it comes to viewers in the most desirable 18 to 34 demographic.

Nielsen also says that traditional TV viewing by all age groups peaked in the 2009-2010 season, and has been on the decline ever since. Until that point, the audience for TV had grown every year since 1949.

The study is Nielsen’s first attempt to come up with a comprehensive measurement of video-viewing behavior across traditional TV, the web, mobile phones, and other devices.

The data underlying the report shows that among 18 to 34-year-olds, the use of smartphones, tablets, and TV-connected devices such as streaming boxes or game consoles increased by more than 25% in May compared with the same period a year earlier, to about 8.5 million people per minute.

In that same category, TV viewing fell by 10% to 8.4 million people per minute.

Obviously, some portion of the time that these viewers spend on smartphones, tablets and TV-connected devices is devoted to watching TV shows. But in many cases they are time-shifted, and the advertising that comes with them is skipped or removed, which affects Nielsen’s client base significantly.

尼爾森將這份報告稱之為可比較的指標報告，因為這是該公司首次將傳統(tǒng)電視與Netflix等流媒體服務、移動設備、YouTube等網(wǎng)絡服務的視頻觀看在同等標準下進行整合。尼爾森指出，許多通過YouTube、Facebook等服務進行的在線視頻觀看比較，對實際觀眾的評估有誤導性。用戶在一個小時或以上時間內(nèi)觀看一段視頻的時間可能達到數(shù)十分鐘，但是一些調(diào)研公司對于觀眾的認定不需要這么長時間的視頻觀看時間。用戶觀看了幾秒鐘的視頻可能就會被一些調(diào)研公司認定為觀眾。

“我們的第一感覺可能是，數(shù)千萬的視頻觀看量擁有的觀眾要超過電視節(jié)目擁有的幾百萬觀眾，但實際上兩項數(shù)字得出的方式完全不同，”尼爾森表示，“電視觀眾指的是一個節(jié)目平均每分鐘的觀看人數(shù)，而不是數(shù)字媒體通常對視頻總播放時間內(nèi)對觀看人數(shù)的衡量。整體來說，觀看電視廣播的用戶數(shù)量更為龐大?！?/p>

Nielsen calls its report the Comparable Metrics report, because it’s the first time the measurement company has tried to combine equivalent ratings for usage of traditional TV and radio with the use of streaming services like Netflix, mobile devices, and web services like YouTube.

The company also takes pains to point out that many comparisons of video viewing online through services like YouTube or Facebook confuse the measurement of actual audiences — in the sense of people watching a video for multiple minutes at a time over an hour or more—with the measurement of transitory viewers who are only present for a few seconds or more.

“It may appear on first glance that tens of millions of video views is a much larger number than a few million persons in the audience of a TV program, but the two numbers are reporting completely different things,” Nielsen says. “The TV audience expresses viewers in an average minute of the program rather than across the total duration, as digital media is commonly reported. The number of persons exposed to a telecast as a whole is a much larger figure.”

在線音樂零售商eMusic前CEO、美國風投公司Venrock媒體投資人大衛(wèi)·帕克曼(David Pakman)曾表示，用戶的注意力正持續(xù)從傳統(tǒng)媒體形式轉(zhuǎn)向流媒體游戲平臺Twitch、閱后即焚應用Snapchat等新平臺。年輕用戶的行為代表著未來，F(xiàn)acebook、YouTube等產(chǎn)品首先被青少年使用，然后再擴大到年齡更大的人群中。

這可能不是尼爾森或尼爾森的客戶想要聽到的，后者多來自傳統(tǒng)電視或電視廣告行業(yè)，但這是事實。他們應該清楚的是，當這種趨勢開始主導尼爾森等公司的分析報告時，一切可能就為時已晚。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

This paragraph can be read as one long veiled reference to a recent post on Medium from media investor David Pakman of Venrock, former CEO of eMusic.

In that post, which was entitled “May I Have Your Attention Please,” Pakman talked about how attention has shifted and is continuing to shift away from traditional forms of media to new platforms such as Twitch (which streams video people playing video games), as well as Snapchat and others.

“The behavior of the young is predictive of the future. Facebook, YouTube, Twitch, Tumblr, Snapchat, Reddit, WhatsApp, Instagram, Vine and YouNow were all catalyzed by teen use first, and later spread to older age groups,” Pakman wrote. “If you want to know which companies to bet on, just follow the attention.” The post got some push-back from a number of media-watchers, including Joe Marchese of Fox Networks, who said — in a response very similar to the one Nielsen makes in its report — that this is comparing apples and oranges.

All of these criticisms of video measurement on YouTube, Facebook and other platforms have some truth to them, including Nielsen’s. But it doesn’t change the fact that for growing numbers of users, particularly younger users, the video-watching experience is driven primarily by Snapchat and YouTube and Twitch and Facebook. It may not be apples to apples, but they are growing and TV is not.

That may not be what Nielsen wants to hear — or its clients, a majority of whom come from the traditional TV and TV advertising industries. But it is the truth. And those groups should remember that by the time those kinds of trends start dominating the data in analytics reports like Nielsen’s, it is usually too late.