????本文是和《Money》雜志的合作內(nèi)容，原文最初發(fā)表在Money.com網(wǎng)站。

????智能手表新時(shí)代終于到來(lái)，Apple Watch宣告正式發(fā)售。盡管這并不是說(shuō)你現(xiàn)在隨便走進(jìn)一家蘋(píng)果商店就能買(mǎi)到，很可能得等到5月才行。但現(xiàn)在正是我們來(lái)探討一個(gè)重要問(wèn)題的好時(shí)機(jī)：各位讀者，你們應(yīng)不應(yīng)該成為Apple Watch的早期用戶(hù)呢？

????答案或許歸根結(jié)底要看你對(duì)這款產(chǎn)品感覺(jué)怎樣。評(píng)論人士告訴我們，Apple Watch很酷，雖然稍有瑕疵，但絕對(duì)是可穿戴科技領(lǐng)域的首款主流產(chǎn)品。如果對(duì)你來(lái)說(shuō)，把一款蘋(píng)果移動(dòng)產(chǎn)品綁在身上不是非常有吸引力，那就不難下決定：暫時(shí)不買(mǎi)。不過(guò)對(duì)像我這樣的科技狂熱者來(lái)說(shuō)，買(mǎi)不買(mǎi)第一代Apple Watch根本不用問(wèn)，非買(mǎi)不可。

????但對(duì)眾多普通人來(lái)說(shuō)，買(mǎi)不買(mǎi)是基于成本和收益做出的理性購(gòu)物決定（我有時(shí)也想這么理性?。珹pple Watch確實(shí)讓人糾結(jié)：是早下手跟上潮流？還是等你不用再糾結(jié)了再說(shuō)？

????蘋(píng)果公司降價(jià)簡(jiǎn)史

????左右你決定的應(yīng)該主要基于兩大變量：一是Apple Watch將來(lái)會(huì)便宜多少，性能會(huì)提高多少？二是你愿意為那個(gè)“將來(lái)”等多久？

????我們回顧一下2000年以來(lái)蘋(píng)果公司的主要新產(chǎn)品，能對(duì)把握這兩個(gè)問(wèn)題有所心得。

????初代iPod。2001年10月上市，售價(jià)399美元，容量5GB。一年半以后進(jìn)行了首次重大硬件更新，包括添加底座連接器；屏幕改善極大，而且沒(méi)那么容易碎了；存儲(chǔ)容量也增加一倍。售價(jià)降至299美元。

????iPhone。如果說(shuō)哪種蘋(píng)果產(chǎn)品會(huì)讓打算盡早入手的人三思的話(huà)，iPhone就是一個(gè)。容量8GB的iPhone于2007年6月底發(fā)售，零售價(jià)599美元。不到三個(gè)月價(jià)格就降至399美元。初代iPhone上市才一年多時(shí)間，蘋(píng)果就推出了199美元的3G版iPhone，降價(jià)幅度達(dá)到66%。

????Apple TV機(jī)頂盒。并不是所有蘋(píng)果新產(chǎn)品的價(jià)格都會(huì)如此迅速下降。Apple TV機(jī)頂盒就三年半沒(méi)有降價(jià)。但當(dāng)它開(kāi)始降價(jià)時(shí)，一下從2007年3月的299美元降到了2010年9月的99美元。

????iPad。也許有人會(huì)說(shuō)，iPad的價(jià)格沒(méi)有太大的變化。問(wèn)世四年多以來(lái)，iPad基本款售價(jià)仍是原來(lái)的499美元。不過(guò)，許多等待了兩年半的消費(fèi)者以329美元買(mǎi)下iPad mini后，都覺(jué)得這個(gè)選擇很明智。銷(xiāo)售預(yù)期已經(jīng)顯示，iPad mini才是大多數(shù)人實(shí)際上想要的。

????那么結(jié)論是什么呢？分析了這些數(shù)據(jù)后，我發(fā)現(xiàn)從2000年開(kāi)始，蘋(píng)果主要消費(fèi)類(lèi)新產(chǎn)品首次大降價(jià)的平均幅度為48%，平均時(shí)間是在產(chǎn)品發(fā)售兩年零三個(gè)月以后。

????我用這些數(shù)據(jù)做出了以下兩張圖。

????This post is in partnership with Money. The article below was originally published at Money.com.

????Our long, smartwatch-less, national nightmare is finally over.

????The Apple Watch was officially released today. That doesn’t mean you can walk up to the counter and buy one yet—watches may not be coming to retail outlets until May—but now is as good a time as any to ask the all-important question: Should you, gentle reader, become an Apple Watch early adopter?

????The answer may simply come down to your feelings about the product, which the reviewers tell us is a cool, somewhat flawed, but legitimately mainstream first foray into wearable technology. If the idea of literally strapping an Apple mobile device to your body doesn’t sound very appealing, then the decision isn’t complicated: Skip it for now. At the other end of the spectrum are tech junkies like me for whom a first-generation Apple Watch isn’t a question at all, but an inevitability.

????But for many normal people who make rational purchasing decisions based on costs and benefits—let me know what that’s like sometime!—the Apple Watch presents a real dilemma: Do you take the plunge and get in early on the smartwatch trend, or do you wait until the kinks have been worked out?

????A short history of Apple price cutting

????Your decision should largely depend on two variables: How much cheaper and better will the Apple Watch be in the future, and how long will one have to wait until that future arrives?

????A look at Apple’s major new product categories going back to the beginning of the millennium gives us some insight into both of these unknowns.

????The original iPod. Released in October of 2001, it cost $399 and shipped with five gigabytes of storage. A year and a half later, the first major hardware revision—which introduced the dock connector and a greatly improved and less break-prone interface—doubled the base model’s storage and dropped the price down to $299.

????The iPhone. A cautionary tale for early adopters if there ever was one. Launched in late June 2007 with the 8 gigabyte model retailing for $599, the iPhone’s price was cut to $399 less than three months later. And just over a year after the original release, Apple shipped the iPhone 3G at $199, a 66% price reduction.

????Apple TV. Not all of Apple’s new product categories have seen their price fall quite so fast. The Apple TV didn’t get cheaper for three and a half years; but between March 2007 and September 2010 it went from basically a $299 media center PC to a $99 streaming box.

????The iPad. Some might argue that the price of the iPad hasn’t changed much at all. More than four years after its release, the base model still sells for the original sticker price of $499. That said, the many consumers who waited two and a half years for the $329 iPad Mini feel they made a very wise decision—and it’s hard to argue considering that sales estimates suggests it’s the iPad most people actually wanted.

????So what’s the bottom line? Well, I crunched the numbers together (you can see my admittedly unscientific methodology in the footnote below) and found that since 2000, the average major new consumer-product category from Apple fell 48% in price between the original launch and the first major price cut, which on average took 2 years and 3 months.

????Here’s two graphics I put together with the data: