????與此同時，特別令人感興趣的是，現(xiàn)在無論是新成立公司的數(shù)量，還是新型企業(yè)科技所吸引的投資額，都呈現(xiàn)出顯著的增長。為什么會產(chǎn)生這種“脫節(jié)”現(xiàn)象？企業(yè)科技為什么一方面遇冷，一方面又倍受青睞？

????最明顯的答案是，經(jīng)典的技術(shù)平臺正在發(fā)生變革，它正朝著云計算平臺方向轉(zhuǎn)型。但另一個答案不太明顯的問題是，這種平臺變革正在什么地方，以什么方式發(fā)生？它是否預示著下一步將會發(fā)生什么事情？

????向云計算平臺的轉(zhuǎn)型首先發(fā)生在應用層面上。近年來，一批新建立的公司開始通過基于云技術(shù)的“軟件即服務”模式向用戶交付現(xiàn)有應用功能，比如客戶關(guān)系管理應用Salesforce.com和人力資源應用Workday。

????向云計算平臺轉(zhuǎn)型的第二波發(fā)生在基礎(chǔ)架構(gòu)層面，如數(shù)據(jù)庫、網(wǎng)絡技術(shù)和存儲技術(shù)等等。比如Nicira（已被VMware以12.5億美元收購）的軟件定義網(wǎng)絡；Servicenow（最近剛剛上市）的系統(tǒng)管理技術(shù)；Arista Network（另一家最近剛剛上市的公司）的網(wǎng)絡設備等等。

????與1999年至2000年那個時代不同的是，在那股風投資本進入新公司的熱潮中，老牌科技公司是自然而然的受益者，也是塵埃落定后的幸存者。然而這一次，在向云計算平臺的轉(zhuǎn)型中，老牌科技公司很可能成為受害者。

????必須承認，傳統(tǒng)的技術(shù)平臺并沒有完全消失。我們在過去幾次平臺轉(zhuǎn)型中也曾發(fā)現(xiàn)，企業(yè)對依賴于這種技術(shù)架構(gòu)的現(xiàn)有應用做了大量投資，所以要想一夜之間讓它們退出歷史舞臺是不可能的。

????但是隨著運用現(xiàn)代技術(shù)的新型應用不斷出現(xiàn)，現(xiàn)有技術(shù)在很大程度上進入了“維護”模式。這意味著傳統(tǒng)軟件的銷售收入將增長得越來越慢，最終會逐漸衰退，而維護與支持現(xiàn)有客戶所產(chǎn)生的收益將成為其主要收入來源。比如，IBM公司的核心業(yè)務增長率連續(xù)9個季度下滑，其它大多數(shù)老牌科技公司也顯現(xiàn)出了這種狀況的早期征兆：大量現(xiàn)金流來自維護收入，而傳統(tǒng)業(yè)務的銷售收入顯著減緩。

????那么在這波轉(zhuǎn)型徹度完成后，誰將會繼續(xù)屹立不倒呢？收購行為可以被視為一個很好的指標。比如SAP決定收購Concur，再加上此前它已經(jīng)收購了SuccessFactors（該公司由安德里森?霍洛維茨基金合伙人拉爾斯?達爾加德創(chuàng)辦），說明這家公司正在全力向云計算領(lǐng)域進軍。SAP的收購戰(zhàn)略說明它致力于成為云應用領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)軍者，正如上一次在向用戶—服務器平臺轉(zhuǎn)型過程中，它在企業(yè)應用領(lǐng)域大獲成功一樣。

????While all this is going on, what’s particularly interesting is that the number of companies being formed and amount of dollars invested in new enterprise technologies is growing significantly. Why the disconnect? How can enterprise tech be both out of favor and wildly in favor?

????The obvious answer is that there’s a classic technology platform shift happening, driven by the move toward cloud-based computing. But perhaps less obvious is where, and how, this platform shift is happening. And what does it tell us about what may be coming next?

????The first elements of the cloud-computing shift took place at the applications level: New companies were created to deliver existing application functionality via a cloud-based, software-as-a-service (SaaS) model. Think of examples like Salesforce.com CRM -2.81% for customer relationship management, or Workday for human resources.

????The second elements of the cloud-computing shift are being seen at more infrastructural levels of the technology stack: databases, networking technologies, storage technologies, and so on. Think of examples like Nicira (acquired by VMware for $1.25 billion) in software-defined networking; Servicenow (a recent IPO) in systems management; or Arista Networks (another recent IPO) in networking equipment.

????But here’s the thing: Unlike in the 1999 to 2000 era, where established tech companies were the natural beneficiaries of venture capital investment into new companies (and turned out to be the survivors after all the dust settled), this time the established firms are potential casualties of a cloud-computing platform shift.

????To be fair, established technology platforms haven’t entirely disappeared. As we’ve seen in past platform shifts, enterprises have big investments in existing applications that rely on this infrastructure — so obsoleting them overnight is never an option.

????But as new applications take advantage of modern technologies, the existing technologies go largely into “maintenance” mode. That means that new revenue from licenses at legacy businesses starts growing more slowly and declines over time, while the annual maintenance and support streams from existing customers becomes the primary source of revenue. For example, IBM IBM -1.30% has reported nine straight quarters of declining top-line growth in its core business. And we are seeing early signs of this for most other established tech companies: Strong cash flows are being generated by the maintenance revenue streams, but new license revenue growth from the legacy businesses is slowing substantially.

????So who will remain standing in the aftermath of the current shift? Acquisition activity is one great indicator. That’s where news that SAP decided to acquire Concur, coupled with its previous acquisition of SuccessFactors (which was founded byAndreessen Horowitz partner Lars Dalgaard), signals that the company is leading the charge in evolving to the cloud-computing paradigm. Their acquisition strategy to date illustrates that SAP is committed to being a leading player in cloud applications in the same way as it created a massive enterprise applications franchise by riding the previous client-server platform shift.