????民主黨依然是參議院多數(shù)黨

????不斷改善的經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)——前提是不會(huì)爆發(fā)另一波銀行危機(jī)——使得共和黨執(zhí)掌參議院的希望變得非常渺茫。2014年，共和黨必須從民主黨手中搶下6個(gè)席位，才能重新奪回參議院。米特?羅姆尼2012年大選期間贏得的7個(gè)州出現(xiàn)了這樣的機(jī)會(huì)。但要想全部拿下，共和黨只能寄望經(jīng)濟(jì)局勢(shì)在明年秋天變得異常糟糕。這一幕恐怕不會(huì)出現(xiàn)。

????概率：71%。

????Democrats will hold the senate

????An improving economy -- scratch this if there's a banking crisis (see "Mis-tapering") -- puts control of the Senate out of reach for the GOP. Republicans have to net six seats to retake the Senate in 2014, and they've got pickup opportunities in seven states that Mitt Romney carried in 2012. But to pull off the sweep, the party needs things to be going very badly next fall. Chances are, they won't be.

????Odds: 71%.