????奧巴馬醫(yī)改計(jì)劃的成本將爆炸性增長(zhǎng)

????支支吾吾了幾個(gè)月后，奧巴馬政府終于承認(rèn)，《可負(fù)擔(dān)醫(yī)療法案》( Affordable Care Act)的長(zhǎng)期成本將是最初預(yù)測(cè)的兩倍。至今年秋天，國(guó)會(huì)預(yù)算辦公室將根據(jù)奧巴馬醫(yī)改計(jì)劃，把2023年按年度計(jì)算的聯(lián)邦開支預(yù)測(cè)值翻一番，從1,340億美元上調(diào)至2,700億美元。醫(yī)保開支為什么會(huì)驟增？其一，這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃將無法吸引到足夠多青壯工人的參與，從精算的角度看難以延續(xù)——美國(guó)精算學(xué)會(huì)(American Academy of Actuaries)對(duì)此表示關(guān)切。其次，采礦和零售等低工資行業(yè)的公司將逃離醫(yī)保業(yè)務(wù)。比預(yù)期更多的公司將放棄醫(yī)保計(jì)劃，從而促使工人成群結(jié)隊(duì)地進(jìn)入根據(jù)奧巴馬醫(yī)保計(jì)劃設(shè)立的醫(yī)保交易市場(chǎng)。

????概率: 70%。

????Obamacare cost will explode

????After months of hemming and hawing, the Obama administration admits that the long-term cost of the Affordable Care Act will be twice what was originally predicted. By this fall the Congressional Budget Office will double its estimates for the annualized cost of federal spending on Obamacare in 2023, from $134 billion to around $270 billion. The reasons for the jump? First, the program will fail to attract a sufficient number of young, healthy workers to sustain it on an actuarial basis -- a concern raised by the American Academy of Actuaries. Second, companies in low-wage industries from mining to retail will flee the health care business. Many more than expected will drop their plans, pushing droves of workers into the Obamacare exchanges.

????Odds: 70%.