????上周，雅芳(Avon)公司公布第三季度業(yè)績的時后，分析師們瞄準(zhǔn)的卻是這家公司正在接受的《海外反腐敗法》 (FCPA)調(diào)查。

????這項針對雅芳在華業(yè)務(wù)行賄指控的調(diào)查讓這家公司付出了沉重的代價，同時還導(dǎo)致了公司高層離職?！敦敻弧冯s志(Fortune)去年對此進行過詳盡報道。分析師們希望能看到雅芳已經(jīng)擺脫了這件事情的影響，希望這家美容產(chǎn)品直銷公司能集中精力扭轉(zhuǎn)頹勢(它公布第三季度虧損，與2012年全年一樣)。

????今年6月，雅芳向美國司法部(Department of Justice)和美國證券交易委員會(SEC)提出1200萬美元的和解提議，結(jié)果遭到拒絕。雅芳CEO謝莉?麥科伊在上周的業(yè)績電話會議上表示，9月份SEC提出了一項和解提議，“其中的經(jīng)濟處罰力度大大高于我們之前的提議。”她表示，雅芳預(yù)計美國司法部也會提出對立的提議。

????麥科伊表示，雅芳認為SEC提出的金額沒有依據(jù)。不過，除此之外，她也沒有什么別的好說的了?！度A爾街日報》（Wall Street Journal） 8月份報道，有政府官員表示，對這家公司的罰金應(yīng)會超過1億美元。

????摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)分析師達拉?莫森尼亞在近期的一份報告中估算，由于海外反腐敗調(diào)查引發(fā)的擔(dān)憂，雅芳的市值已經(jīng)縮水約7.50億美元——他認為，這個數(shù)據(jù)說明股東們的擔(dān)心過頭了。莫森尼亞回顧了歷史上的FCPA罰款，得出結(jié)論稱：“假如雅芳支付的罰款額類似于歷史上FCPA第10大罰款（9500萬美元） … （罰款額）也顯著低于市值縮水幅度7.50（億美元）?！蹦醽嗩A(yù)計罰款最多是幾億美元，低一些也是有可能的。

????如果最終雅芳的罰款在1億美元左右，F(xiàn)CPA的執(zhí)行可能會遇到新的挑戰(zhàn)。根據(jù)莫森尼亞的回顧，史上只有9筆FCPA罰款超過1億美元。它們涉及到的公司是類似西門子(Siemens)、哈里伯頓(Halliburton)和BAE系統(tǒng)(BAE Systems)等等與政府合同有關(guān)的公司。莫森尼亞寫道：“它們的違法涉案金額看起來似乎不是一家直銷公司能相提并論的?！?（財富中文網(wǎng)）????????

????When Avon Products (AVP) reported third-quarter earnings last week, analysts zeroed in on the ongoing Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) investigation into the company.

????The inquiry into allegations of bribery, which have focused on Avon's operations in China, has proven costly and led to high-level departures, as Fortune detailed last year. Analysts are eager to see Avon put this issue behind it so the direct seller of beauty products can focus on executing a turnaround (the company reported a loss in the quarter as it also did for all of 2012).

????Avon made a settlement offer to the Department of Justice and SEC in June for $12 million, which was subsequently rejected. CEO Sheri McCoy said on last week's earnings call that the SEC made its own offer in September that "included monetary penalties of a magnitude significantly greater than our earlier offer." She noted the company believes the DOJ also will make a counterproposal.

????There was nothing McCoy could add beyond saying that the company believes the amount put forward by the SEC is unwarranted. The Wall Street Journal reported in August that government officials have said that the company's penalty should be more than $100 million.

????Morgan Stanley analyst Dara Mohsenian estimated in a recent note that Avon's market cap has lost $750 million on concerns related to the FCPA investigation -- a figure, in his view, that suggests that shareholders' fears are excessive. Mohsenian did a review of FCPA fines and came to the conclusion that "if Avon were to pay a similar amount to the 10th largest FCPA fine in history [$95 million] … [the] amount would be well below the $750 [million] implied market cap drop." Mohsenian expects the fines to come in at a few hundred million dollars at most and that a lower penalty is likely.

????If, in the end, Avon does end up with a fine even in the $100 million range, it could signal a new, tougher era for FCPA enforcement. According to Mohsenian's review, only nine FCPA penalties in history have come in at more than $100 million. They have involved companies like Siemens (SI), Halliburton (HAL), and BAE Systems and were related to government contracts -- "seemingly greater offenses than is likely at a direct seller," Mohsenian writes.