????本周末，中國共產(chǎn)黨即將召開一場重要的，甚至堪稱歷史性的會議，至少中國官方媒體是這樣宣傳的。這場定于周六開始、為期四天的活動將在北京舉行，它的正式名稱是中國共產(chǎn)黨第十八屆中央委員會第三次全體會議。預(yù)計將有大約200位中央委員出席這次會議。

????過去一年，包括國家主席習(xí)近平在內(nèi)的新一屆領(lǐng)導(dǎo)班子登上了權(quán)力之巔。在前兩次全會上，新一屆中央領(lǐng)導(dǎo)集體主要商討了人事變動議題。三中全會歷來備受關(guān)注，原因是，它曾經(jīng)產(chǎn)生過推動中國巨大變革的重大經(jīng)濟事件。比如，正是在1978年舉行的三中全會上，鄧小平再次出山，成為中國當(dāng)時的最高領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人。

????中國官方媒體不斷宣稱，三中全會預(yù)期將在懲治腐敗、建立自由市場和保護環(huán)境等方面推出重大改革舉措。新華社本周發(fā)表社論稱，十八屆三中全會“有望引領(lǐng)中國進入一個歷史性轉(zhuǎn)折點，并將改變中國的經(jīng)濟增長模式?！薄吨袊請蟆?China Daily )上周末在頭版刊發(fā)報道稱，中國總理李克強決心推動地方政府轉(zhuǎn)變職能。這份報紙今天的頭版通欄標題是《用5到10年的時間緩解環(huán)境污染問題》。

????一切都看起來非常樂觀。許多人認為，中共中央正在釋放積極的信號，隨后必將出臺強有力的改革措施。但習(xí)近平迄今為止的任期顯然趨向于保守主義。盡管他上任伊始展現(xiàn)出的改革派姿態(tài)引發(fā)過熱議，但重大的政治改革還沒有出現(xiàn)。恰恰相反，國家級媒體頻頻向跨國公司發(fā)難，相繼調(diào)查了蘋果公司(Apple)的專利侵權(quán)案，星巴克咖啡連鎖店(Starbucks)涉嫌價格欺詐事件，以及葛蘭素史克制藥公司(GlaxoSmithKline )的行賄丑聞。此外，中國北方地區(qū)的污染正在逼近危機級別，而政府依然在探討至少還需五年才能見效的整治措施。預(yù)測新一屆政府馬上就會推行大刀闊斧的改革似乎不切實際，尤其是考慮到本屆政府上任一年來應(yīng)對中國各種問題時所表現(xiàn)出的謹慎態(tài)度。

????西方媒體對本周末會議的期許更加審慎一些。潛在的重大變革將出現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟領(lǐng)域，但這些同樣是不確定的事情。比如，土地權(quán)利問題和國有企業(yè)改革不一定會迎來政策拐點。

????當(dāng)然，我們可能無法獲悉本周末究竟會發(fā)生什么事情，因為相關(guān)消息被視為國家機密。攝像機和記者不準進入會場，演講稿也不會提前散發(fā)——中共三中全會與美國總統(tǒng)的國情咨文（國情咨文指美國總統(tǒng)就政府業(yè)績和規(guī)劃在國會所作的年度講話——譯者注）恰好是對立的兩極。

????目前而言，觀察人士只能閱讀坊間的種種預(yù)言，期盼著中國采取措施來解決它日益嚴重的問題。在這樣一個很多重大政策走向依然模糊不清的時刻，一個讓人略感欣慰的消息是，中國決心確保中國的國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值每年至少增長7.2%。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：葉寒??????

????China's Communist Party is spending this weekend in meetings. Important ones, maybe even historic, or at least so say the state press. The four-day event that starts Saturday in Beijing is officially called the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee, a mandatory retreat for the country's top 200 or so communists.

????New party members, including President Xi Jinping, rose to power in the past year and spent their first two plenary sessions mostly on personnel changes. That's why the big buildup to the third, which has historically produced the kind of economic events that are credited with propelling the country forward, such as Deng Xiaoping's ascension to power at the 1978 session.

????China's state-run press is telegraphing big reforms on corruption, free markets, and the environment. The official Xinhua news agency wrote this week that the Third Plenary "is expected to steer the country into an historic turning point and transform its growth pattern." China Daily carried a front-page story over the weekend about Chinese Premier Li Keqiang's push to liberalize local governments. And the newspaper today ran the banner headline: POLLUTION TO EASE IN FIVE TO 10 YEARS.

????But it all looks optimistic. There's the Party's message, and then there's the Party's actions. And so far President Xi's term has been marked by a notable move toward conservatism. Major political reforms haven't happened despite early chatter about his reformist ways. Instead, state media have investigated multinationals like Apple (AAPL) for patent infringement, Starbucks (SBUX) for price gouging, and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) for bribery. Moreover, pollution is reaching crisis levels in the country's north, and the government is still talking about fixes being at least five years away. Predicting drastic reforms from the new government seems unrealistic, especially after a year in which the same government has reacted cautiously to the country's problems.

????The Western press is more guarded about the weekend session. The key potential changes are in economic reform, but those aren't certain. Neither are land rights issues, nor moves to reign in anti-competitive state-owned enterprises.

????Of course, it may be impossible to know what happens over the weekend, because the news is treated as a state secret. No cameras are let in, no reporters, no speech transcripts distributed ahead of time -- the polar opposite of an American president's State of the Union address.

????For now, observers can only read the prognosticators, hope that China takes steps to address its growing problems, and take comfort in knowing that the country is determined to grow GDP at least 7.2% a year at a time when much else remains unclear.