????利率上升應(yīng)該也會(huì)打擊中國(guó)市場(chǎng)，從而推升整個(gè)亞洲范圍內(nèi)的利率水平。它將嚴(yán)重打擊亞洲地區(qū)的資本密集型經(jīng)濟(jì)體，其中許多經(jīng)濟(jì)體正是為服務(wù)于中國(guó)需求而專(zhuān)門(mén)擴(kuò)大了產(chǎn)能。全球范圍內(nèi)的利率上升，尤其是在“避風(fēng)港”的美國(guó)國(guó)債市場(chǎng)，再加上強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元，應(yīng)該會(huì)重創(chuàng)高估的亞洲貨幣、引發(fā)通貨膨脹，而且是在經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的背景下。這會(huì)造成經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題和潛在的社會(huì)動(dòng)蕩。

????Hedgeye的高級(jí)分析師、敏銳的亞洲觀察家大流士?戴爾說(shuō)，中國(guó)的決策層開(kāi)始表現(xiàn)出不那么擔(dān)心國(guó)內(nèi)產(chǎn)生資產(chǎn)價(jià)格泡沫的可能。這可以給他們帶來(lái)更多的靈活性，以某種形式的寬松貨幣政策刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)。但任何此類(lèi)政策舉措很可能會(huì)逐步實(shí)施，見(jiàn)效也會(huì)慢得多。

????戴爾提醒稱(chēng)，巨額債務(wù)展期會(huì)從金融體系吸收流動(dòng)性，“從而分流面向生產(chǎn)企業(yè)的增量信貸”，一般情況下會(huì)導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩。也許更關(guān)鍵的是它會(huì)對(duì)脆弱經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)造成的沖擊，它會(huì)分流開(kāi)工率較低的企業(yè)或只是試圖渡過(guò)經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)暴暫時(shí)停產(chǎn)的企業(yè)可以獲得的流動(dòng)性，從而阻礙形成穩(wěn)定的經(jīng)濟(jì)基礎(chǔ)。

????最后，中國(guó)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人可能會(huì)考慮的任何債務(wù)展期的影響將幾乎肯定不會(huì)被私人儲(chǔ)蓄的顯著增加所抵消。如果沒(méi)有中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)提供引擎動(dòng)力，亞洲經(jīng)濟(jì)跑車(chē)預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)長(zhǎng)期停留在維修站內(nèi)。

????本文作者是Hedgeye風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理公司董事總經(jīng)理，著有《修復(fù)破碎的華爾街》一書(shū)。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：默默

????Rising rates should hit China's markets too, pushing Asian rates higher. This will clobber the region's capital-intensive economies, many of which expanded capacity specifically to serve Chinese demand. Rising rates -- globally, but especially in the "safe haven" U.S. Treasury market -- coupled with a strong Dollar, should punish overvalued Asian currencies, sparking inflation, but in the context of economic decline. This spells economic trouble and the potential for social unrest.

????Hedgeye Senior analyst and keen-eyed Asia watcher Darius Dale says Chinese policy makers are starting to appear less concerned about a possible domestic asset price bubble. This could give them more flexibility in some kind of easy-money policy aimed at domestic stimulus. Any such policy move is likely to be slow to be implemented and much slower to take effect.

????Dale cautions that massive debt rollovers generally slow economic growth by sucking liquidity out of the financial system, "diverting incremental credit from productive enterprises." Perhaps more crucial is the impact on a fragile economy, which can hamper the creation of a stable economic base by diverting liquidity away from marginally productive business, or from temporarily unproductive ones that are merely trying to weather the economic storm.

????Finally, any debt rollover China's leaders may contemplate will almost surely not be offset by a significant increase in private savings. Without China to fuel the engine, Asia's economic racecar looks to be in for a long pit stop.

????Moshe Silver is a Managing Director at Hedgeye Risk Management and author of Fixing a Broken Wall Street.