????新規(guī)定和今天大抵相仿，要求外國(guó)投資者與委內(nèi)瑞拉石油公司合作，而后者將占有60%的所有權(quán)。僅占40%所有權(quán)的外國(guó)公司卻需要進(jìn)行100%的投資。此外，外國(guó)公司盈利必須繳納50%的稅費(fèi)和33%的特許開(kāi)采費(fèi)。噢，投資者還必須同意，將來(lái)一旦發(fā)生與政府所有權(quán)相關(guān)的爭(zhēng)端，將由委內(nèi)瑞拉法庭審理，而不是那些令人討厭的、公正的國(guó)際仲裁法庭。

????不過(guò)即便風(fēng)險(xiǎn)/回報(bào)率如此離譜，委內(nèi)瑞拉還是聲稱(chēng)已經(jīng)把奧里諾科河的36塊地拍賣(mài)給了21個(gè)國(guó)家的27家公司。這些公司大多是來(lái)自伊朗、白俄羅斯和古巴一些稀奇古怪的國(guó)有或政府控制的石油公司。不過(guò)一些大型上市石油公司，比如西班牙的雷普索爾（Repsol）、巴西的巴西石油公司、意大利的埃尼集團(tuán)（Eni）和法國(guó)的道達(dá)爾（Total）也持有了股份。甚至連雪佛龍也占了一塊——盡管只是很小的一塊。

????找一些國(guó)外合伙人來(lái)幫忙承擔(dān)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)合情合理，但查韋斯做得太過(guò)分了，尤其是這些合伙人幾乎沒(méi)有在油砂上勘探的經(jīng)驗(yàn)。實(shí)際上，這次分工看起來(lái)更像是奇怪的公關(guān)噱頭，而不是真正的勞動(dòng)分工。因此了解到目前奧里諾科河的鉆探工程沒(méi)什么大動(dòng)靜，也就不足為奇了。盡管委內(nèi)瑞拉石油公司稱(chēng)已經(jīng)和俄羅斯和越南合作開(kāi)始鉆井，報(bào)告的初期產(chǎn)量卻簡(jiǎn)直微不足道。與此同時(shí)，據(jù)傳印度的石油天然氣公司（ONGC）和其他幾家公司已經(jīng)開(kāi)始停止任何投入，直到委內(nèi)瑞拉的政治局勢(shì)變得明朗?？梢源蛸€，即使是委內(nèi)瑞拉最堅(jiān)實(shí)的盟友，比如在過(guò)去幾年給查韋斯政權(quán)借債460億美元的中國(guó)，也會(huì)加入暫時(shí)觀望的隊(duì)伍。

????很難看到在接下來(lái)幾個(gè)月內(nèi)委內(nèi)瑞拉的石油產(chǎn)業(yè)能有所變化。查韋斯設(shè)立的政治機(jī)構(gòu)看起來(lái)根深蒂固，此時(shí)可能需要一場(chǎng)全面的革命才能徹底抹去他們的影響。然而，委內(nèi)瑞拉的石油開(kāi)采已經(jīng)接近了轉(zhuǎn)折點(diǎn)。政府無(wú)法繼續(xù)依靠委內(nèi)瑞拉石油公司償還債務(wù)。它需要國(guó)外真正具有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的合作伙伴介入，幫助它提振產(chǎn)量。

????這意味著需要重新引入像康菲這樣的公司。在2007年被掃地出門(mén)前，康菲是委內(nèi)瑞拉最大的國(guó)外運(yùn)營(yíng)商。他們擁有工程師和專(zhuān)業(yè)技能，可以讓委內(nèi)瑞拉的石油鉆探迅速取得進(jìn)展。委內(nèi)瑞拉還需要明智地同赫斯基公司（Husky）、森科爾公司（Suncor）、加拿大油砂作業(yè)公司（Syncrude）和尼克森公司（Nexen）協(xié)商。這些公司在加拿大的亞達(dá)巴斯卡河（Athabasca）油砂區(qū)都有豐富的作業(yè)經(jīng)驗(yàn)。

????為了吸引合適的人才，委內(nèi)瑞拉需要在物權(quán)法和稅法上做出重大的改變。公司在投資時(shí)必須有安全感，因此需要有絕對(duì)的安全和法律保障。不過(guò)即便委內(nèi)瑞拉的新任領(lǐng)導(dǎo)在石油公司的所有權(quán)要求上讓步，短期內(nèi)很可能也不會(huì)有任何實(shí)質(zhì)性的鉆探。查韋斯已經(jīng)摧毀了這個(gè)國(guó)家的信譽(yù)，而想要贏回信任仍然需要時(shí)日。所以一個(gè)月后，委內(nèi)瑞拉人民投票選舉新的領(lǐng)袖時(shí)，他們最好明智些，選擇一位能夠忍氣吞聲的領(lǐng)袖。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：嚴(yán)匡正

????The new rules, which are more or less the same today, require foreign investors to form partnerships with PDVSA in which the state-owned oil company would have a 60% ownership. The foreign company, which would have 40% ownership, would still have to fund 100% of the investment. Furthermore, whatever the foreign company made would be subject to a 50% tax rate and a 33% royalty (tax). Oh, and investors must agree that any dispute that may arise in the future concerning their ownership with the government will be heard by Venezuelan courts, not those pesky impartial international arbitration courts.

????But while the risk/reward ratio is clearly off, Venezuela says that it has auctioned off 36 lease blocks in the Orinoco to 27 companies hailing from 21 nations. Most are bizarre state-owned or controlled oil companies from places like Iran, Belorussia, and Cuba. But some of the big publicly traded oil companies like Spain's Repsol, Brazil's Petrobras, Italy's Eni and France's Total have stakes as well. Even Chevron was allocated a block -- albeit a small one.

????While it makes sense to have a few foreign partners to help to spread out the risk, one can go too far, especially when those partners have pretty much zero experience working with oil sands. Indeed, this split looks more like a bizarre public relations stunt than a real division of labor. It should therefore come as no surprise to learn that there isn't too much drilling going on in the Orinoco right now. While PDVSA says that it has started to drill wells with its Russian and Vietnamese partners, the initial production numbers reported are trivial. Meanwhile, India's ONGC and several other companies are reportedly holding back from investing any more cash until there is some clarity as to the political situation in the country. You can bet even Venezuela's staunchest allies, like China, which has loaned the Chavez regime some $46 billion in the last few years, will be among those taking a breather.

????It is difficult to see what, if anything, could change in Venezuela's oil industry in the next few months. The political apparatus Chavez has set up seems fully entrenched. It would probably take a full-fledged revolution for it to be wiped out at this point. Nevertheless, Venezuela is nearing a breaking point when it comes to oil production. The government cannot continue to rely on PDVSA to pay its bills. It needs real foreign partners with real experience to come in and help it boost production.

????That means bringing back companies like ConocoPhilips, which before getting the boot in 2007, was the largest foreign operator in the country. They have the engineers and know-how to help Venezuela quickly get off the ground. Venezuela would be wise to also consult with oil companies like Husky, Suncor (SU), Syncrude and Nexen, all of which have extensive experience working in Canada's vast Athabasca oil sands.

????To lure the right talent, Venezuela needs to make some serious changes to its ownership and tax laws. Companies must feel safe to make their investments so security and legal protections will need to be ironclad. But even if Venezuela's new leaders give in to all of the oil companies' demands, it will probably be a while before you see any real drilling. Chavez obliterated the nation's credibility, and it will take some time for Venezuela to earn back that trust. So when Venezuelans go to the polls in a month to choose their new leader, they would be wise to choose someone who knows how to eat a big helping of humble pie.