????他現(xiàn)在表示，庫(kù)魯克號(hào)事故正好證明了自己的觀點(diǎn)：“我沒想到頭一年就能出這么多亂子，但這正好說明他們要做的這件事難度有多大。這個(gè)行業(yè)里的游戲規(guī)則是‘何時(shí)能賺到第一筆錢’，如果你不能在10年內(nèi)賺到第一筆錢，后續(xù)就很難在這個(gè)項(xiàng)目上掙到說得過去的回報(bào)?！?/p>

????持懷疑態(tài)度的不止他一個(gè)。與石油業(yè)經(jīng)常打交道的美國(guó)德州農(nóng)工大學(xué)墨西哥灣哈特研究所（Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies）執(zhí)行理事拉瑞?麥金尼也算一位。麥金尼預(yù)測(cè)，以當(dāng)?shù)氐母”蜌夂驐l件來(lái)說，“沒有發(fā)生什么惡性事件就是科技奇跡了。”

????庫(kù)魯克號(hào)事故之后，我再次致電麥金尼。他重申了自己最初的擔(dān)心，并強(qiáng)調(diào)庫(kù)魯克號(hào)事故將給反對(duì)海上采油的觀點(diǎn)提供“彈藥”。“那里的條件十分艱苦，”他說?！翱隙〞?huì)發(fā)生不幸的事情?！北睒O地區(qū)出事，就算是小事故也會(huì)給經(jīng)營(yíng)帶來(lái)很大的影響。“在北極耽誤兩個(gè)月可不就只耽誤了兩個(gè)月，”麥金尼說?！暗⒄`兩個(gè)月可能就錯(cuò)過了整個(gè)開采期?！?/p>

????譯者：郭延航

????The Kulluk accident, he now says, bears this out: "I didn't expect to see so many things go wrong in their first year, but it shows you how hard it is to do what they want to do. In this business, the name of the game is 'time to first cash flow,' and if you can't get first cash flow for at least 10 years, then it's going to be awfully hard to earn a decent return on the project."

????He wasn't the only skeptic. Larry McKinney is executive director at the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico Studies at Texas A&M, which frequently works with the oil industry. Given the ice and weather conditions, McKinney predicted that it would be "a technological miracle if something bad doesn't happen."

????I called McKinney again after the Kulluk accident. He reiterated his initial concern, noting that the Kulluk accident will give "ammunition" to those who oppose offshore drilling. "The conditions are extreme up there," he said, "which means something is going to happen, unfortunately." And when things do go wrong in the Arctic, small problems have outsized business impacts. "A two-month delay in the Arctic is not a two-month delay," McKinney said. "A two-month delay could wipe out the entire drilling season."