????今年9月的一個(gè)早晨，精力充沛的法國(guó)人、世貿(mào)組織（World Trade Organization）總干事帕斯卡爾?拉米站在一屋子經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家面前，開(kāi)始發(fā)表他對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)健康狀況的年度解讀。“今年和去年一樣，都以經(jīng)濟(jì)劇烈震蕩為特征，”他開(kāi)場(chǎng)就說(shuō)?！敖?jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩、高失業(yè)率和新發(fā)布的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)都讓人擔(dān)憂(yōu)?！边@不是什么經(jīng)濟(jì)新癥狀。但最后一句話，提到令人擔(dān)憂(yōu)的最新貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)，還是讓很多人豎起了耳朵。

????過(guò)去20年的大部分時(shí)間里，全球貿(mào)易增速一直高于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增速，通常是后者的2倍左右。2006年GDP增長(zhǎng)3.5%，貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)8%，是此次危機(jī)爆發(fā)前最后一年經(jīng)濟(jì)健康的年份。看起來(lái)，這個(gè)比例就像是個(gè)完美的金齒輪，將整個(gè)地球更緊密地聯(lián)系了起來(lái)。但最近24個(gè)月的有些情況，看起來(lái)很像是貿(mào)易休克。不只是貿(mào)易不再以2倍的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速增長(zhǎng)，相反，貿(mào)易在放緩。在一些重點(diǎn)地區(qū)，貿(mào)易增速已低于GDP增速——而且，今年全球貿(mào)易增速將再次低于20年來(lái)的平均增速?？赡茏钅荏w現(xiàn)全球化熱情的海外資產(chǎn)投資數(shù)據(jù)也已經(jīng)降至40%，顯著低于2008年時(shí)的50%多。這樣的變化足以讓經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家們開(kāi)始質(zhì)疑：全球化是否正在倒退？

????拉米表示，世界的聯(lián)系越來(lái)越緊密，這是我們預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)時(shí)的核心假設(shè)。有鑒于此，這樣的數(shù)據(jù)確實(shí)令人擔(dān)憂(yōu)。這些變化對(duì)政治的影響不亞于對(duì)市場(chǎng)的影響。人們應(yīng)該還記得全球保護(hù)主義盛行的年代，清楚國(guó)際合作停滯的后果，想到18世紀(jì)法國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家弗雷德里克?巴師夏的冷酷論斷就會(huì)憂(yōu)心忡忡：“一旦商品不能跨越國(guó)界，軍隊(duì)就會(huì)跨越國(guó)界?！泵绹?guó)從開(kāi)放的世界貿(mào)易秩序中獲得了最多的好處。因此，如今看著美國(guó)人反對(duì)國(guó)際貿(mào)易，就好像看著人們正在想辦法擺脫重力一樣。但如今的狀況就是：2/3的美國(guó)人相信，發(fā)展國(guó)際貿(mào)易對(duì)這個(gè)國(guó)家有害。

????在本文隨后幾頁(yè)，我想用這些冰冷的貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)來(lái)講述一個(gè)更大范圍內(nèi)的趨勢(shì)，一個(gè)正在發(fā)生的深層次變化：內(nèi)部的崛起。過(guò)去20年的全球化帶來(lái)地區(qū)和國(guó)家間相互聯(lián)系度的提升，成就了全新的全球生活品質(zhì)。冷戰(zhàn)結(jié)束后，全球長(zhǎng)舒了一口氣，人們開(kāi)始探索外面的世界。公司、天性和度假都引導(dǎo)我們前往世界最遙遠(yuǎn)的角落?，F(xiàn)在，我們?cè)谏磉吙吹搅艘恍┎煌臇|西。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)每個(gè)地方都出現(xiàn)了世界“內(nèi)向化”發(fā)展的跡象，這個(gè)時(shí)代將由“內(nèi)部”決定成功、提供增長(zhǎng)。不論是公司、國(guó)家，甚至個(gè)人職業(yè)，都是如此。一切就像“外部”曾經(jīng)起到的作用一樣。想一想：

????? 過(guò)去20年的大部分時(shí)間里，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展是受到對(duì)外開(kāi)放和低廉的勞工成本推動(dòng)。低廉的勞工成本使得中國(guó)成為了世界工廠。但未來(lái)10年，中國(guó)需要盡快修復(fù)失衡的內(nèi)部體系。正如中國(guó)官員去年在解釋中國(guó)新的五年計(jì)劃時(shí)所述：“全球化的黃金時(shí)代可能已經(jīng)過(guò)去?！?/p>

????One morning this past September, Pascal Lamy, the energetic Frenchman who heads the World Trade Organization, stood in front of a room of economists and began his annual recitation on the health of the world's economy. "This year, like last, has been marked by extraordinary economic turbulence," he began. "Sluggish economic growth rates, high unemployment, and newly released figures on world trade that are just as worrying." It was not an unfamiliar diagnosis. But that last bit, the mention of the worrying new trade data, caught a number of ears.

????For most of the past 20 years trade has raced ahead of global economic growth, usually at about double its pace. GDP grew by 3.5% in 2006, the last healthy, pre-crisis year, and trade at 8%. This was, it seemed, a golden ratchet binding the planet ever closer. But the most recent 24 months show something that looks an awful lot like a trade shock. It isn't just that trade is no longer doubling -- it's slowing. In some crucial areas trade growth has slipped below GDP growth -- and this year, globally we'll be below the 20-year average rate of trade growth yet again. Figures on investment in assets held overseas, probably the best indicator of enthusiasm for globalism, are drifting down toward 40%, from more than 50% in 2008. The move is serious enough that economists have begun to ask: Is globalization running backward?

????Given that the idea of a more interconnected world has been at the heart of our assumptions about our future, such figures are, as Lamy said, worrying. They echo in our politics as loudly as they do in our markets. People remember a world of protectionism, understand the consequences of no international cooperation, and nervously consider the icy historical proposition of 18th-century French economist Frédéric Bastiat: "When goods don't cross borders, armies will." Watching the country that in recent years has benefited most from an open world-trading order rebel against it is like hearing that people are looking for ways to opt out of gravity. But here it is: Two-thirds of Americans now believe more trade is bad for the country.

????What I want to do in the next few pages is start with those chilling trade numbers to tell a larger story, the story of a deep shift now under way: The rise of the inside. The past 20 years of globalization delivered a quantity of connectedness that produced a whole new quality of global life. At the end of the Cold War, the world released a big, tense breath and began stretching out. Our companies, our instincts, our vacations -- all led us to the farthest corners of the planet. Now, all around us, we see something different. We find everywhere signs of a world turning inward and of an era when the inside will define success and deliver growth -- for companies, for nations, even for your career -- in the way the outside once did. Consider:

????? For most of the past 20 years China's development was driven by opening to the outside and by low labor costs that made it the world's factory. But the next 10 years will be defined by fixing, urgently, its broken internal systems. As officials in Beijing noted last year when explaining their new five-year plan: "The golden age of globalization may come to a halt."