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財政懸崖也許只是聳人聽聞

財政懸崖也許只是聳人聽聞

Cyrus Sanati 2012-11-13
美國不會掉下財政懸崖,也不會掉進任何其他所謂的經濟鴻溝,至少短期內不會。美國國會設定了這一定時炸彈,就能在炸彈爆炸前拆除引信。

????這聽上去或許有些憤世嫉俗,但在華盛頓還能以很低的成本借到錢的時候,讓任何一方大動干戈地去解決這個問題都是不太現實的。正如我們在歐洲看到的那樣,哪個國家都不會主動吞下緊縮苦藥,除非市場逼迫它不得已而為之。因此,即便股市對財政懸崖仍感到緊張不安,如果美國國債收益率保持接近歷史低點,仍然是不足以讓美國國會或總統(tǒng)做出任何真正的長期妥協(xié)。只有當借貸成本變得過高,才會看到政府采取實質性的措施來解決一個國家的長期財政問題,早一秒都沒戲。

????譯者:早稻米

????As cynical as it may sound, it is simply irrational for either side to address the deficit in any meaningful way given how cheaply it is for Washington to borrow money. As we have seen in Europe, nations won't swallow the bitter pill of austerity unless the markets force them to. So while the equity markets are jittery about the fiscal cliff that is not enough for Congress or the President to present any real long-term compromise if the yields on Treasuries remain at near all-time lows. It will only be when it becomes too expensive to borrow that you will see the government act in any meaningful way to address the nation's long term fiscal issues, not a second before.

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