????本周，美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)的一份報(bào)告明確建議，美國(guó)公司與政府部門(mén)應(yīng)該排斥兩家中國(guó)最大的電信公司。報(bào)告稱(chēng)，從這兩家公司購(gòu)買(mǎi)設(shè)備將威脅美國(guó)國(guó)家安全。美國(guó)眾議院情報(bào)委員會(huì)（the House Intelligence Committee）對(duì)兩家中國(guó)公司——華為（Huawei Technologies）與中興（ZTE Corp.）——展開(kāi)毀滅性打擊，似乎給美國(guó)公司帶來(lái)了巨大的發(fā)展機(jī)會(huì)?？墒聦?shí)上，美國(guó)公司面臨的境況可能截然相反。

????據(jù)貿(mào)易政策專(zhuān)家稱(chēng)，為了反擊美國(guó)國(guó)會(huì)的攻擊，中國(guó)可能會(huì)提高關(guān)稅、或者禁止進(jìn)口某些設(shè)備，從而對(duì)美國(guó)科技進(jìn)口設(shè)置障礙。這種策略將使美國(guó)公司受到嚴(yán)重傷害，因?yàn)槊绹?guó)公司的銷(xiāo)售與增長(zhǎng)越來(lái)越依賴中國(guó)?？芍^利害攸關(guān)。據(jù)美國(guó)商務(wù)部（the Commerce Department）公布，去年，美國(guó)公司向中國(guó)出售的高新技術(shù)價(jià)值200億美元。加州大學(xué)（University of California）洛杉磯分校商學(xué)教授克里斯托弗?唐致力于研究制造業(yè)與中國(guó)市場(chǎng)，他說(shuō)：“我認(rèn)為中國(guó)肯定會(huì)進(jìn)行報(bào)復(fù)性的反擊。這是一場(chǎng)政治博弈?！?/p>

????這份由兩黨共同推出的國(guó)會(huì)報(bào)告似乎專(zhuān)門(mén)針對(duì)華為和中興。這兩家跨國(guó)公司銷(xiāo)售通話連接和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)通信路由設(shè)備。調(diào)查人員稱(chēng)，中國(guó)政府可能參與了其中的關(guān)鍵技術(shù)，監(jiān)視和竊取商業(yè)機(jī)密。他們稱(chēng)，這兩家公司均未提供證明其公司控制權(quán)和與中國(guó)政府關(guān)系的具體證據(jù)。公司總部設(shè)立黨支部的事實(shí)也在調(diào)查人員心中亮起紅燈。（注意，這兩家公司都不是所謂的SOE，即國(guó)有企業(yè)。）

????10月10日，中國(guó)商務(wù)部（the Commerce Ministry）發(fā)言人沈丹陽(yáng)在新華社（Xinhua news agency）的一篇報(bào)道中回應(yīng)稱(chēng)，這種指責(zé)的依據(jù)僅僅是“主觀猜忌”和“不實(shí)依據(jù)”。他認(rèn)為，美國(guó)此舉違反了其一直堅(jiān)持的自由市場(chǎng)原則，將破壞兩國(guó)之間的合作與發(fā)展。沈丹陽(yáng)說(shuō)：“我們希望美國(guó)能做出切實(shí)努力，為兩國(guó)公司創(chuàng)造一個(gè)公平、公正的市場(chǎng)環(huán)境，促進(jìn)兩國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易關(guān)系的健康發(fā)展?！?/p>

????市場(chǎng)調(diào)查公司ACG Research的主理合伙人瑞?摩塔認(rèn)為，從短期來(lái)看，思科（Cisco Systems）和瞻博網(wǎng)絡(luò)（Juniper Networks）等美國(guó)公司可能從中受益。因?yàn)樗鼈兊闹袊?guó)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)對(duì)手忙于彌補(bǔ)聲譽(yù)損失的時(shí)候，美國(guó)公司可能贏得更多合同。但摩塔解釋說(shuō)，從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，美國(guó)科技公司免不了陷入動(dòng)蕩。貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)一旦爆發(fā)，它們就會(huì)失去在中國(guó)的所有業(yè)務(wù)。他說(shuō)：“這取決于中國(guó)政府態(tài)度的強(qiáng)硬程度。它可能給美國(guó)公司帶來(lái)傷害?！?/p>

????達(dá)特茅斯學(xué)院（Dartmouth College）商學(xué)教授理查德?德阿凡尼預(yù)計(jì)，中國(guó)肯定會(huì)采取報(bào)復(fù)措施，但中國(guó)政府不會(huì)立即進(jìn)行反擊，而是會(huì)靜待時(shí)機(jī)。此外，別指望中國(guó)政府會(huì)提前發(fā)表什么重大聲明，這可不是他們的一貫作風(fēng)。他說(shuō)：“我認(rèn)為，中國(guó)會(huì)采取更加圓滑的手段。中國(guó)人很少會(huì)直接反擊，反而會(huì)旁敲側(cè)擊，或者通過(guò)其他途徑發(fā)出信號(hào)，告訴你：‘我生氣了’?！?/p>

????A congressional report this week recommended in no uncertain terms that U.S. companies and government agencies avoid two of China's biggest telecommunications companies. Buying equipment from them risks national security, the report said. The House Intelligence Committee's withering attack on the two Chinese companies, Huawei Technologies and ZTE Corp., would seem like a big opportunity for U.S. firms to gain ground. The reality for U.S. businesses, however, could be the very opposite.

????In response to the congressional assault, China may throw up roadblocks against the U.S. tech imports by raising tariffs or prohibiting certain kinds of equipment, according to trade policy experts. Such a tactic would harm U.S. companies, which increasingly count on China for sales and growth. The stakes are huge. Last year, U.S. firms sold $20 billion in advanced technology to China, according to the Commerce Department. "I'm afraid that there will be some sort of retaliatory attack," said Christopher Tang, a business professor at University of California at Los Angeles whose focus is manufacturing and China. "It's a political game."

????The bipartisan congressional report looked exclusively at Huawei and ZTE, two global businesses that sell gear for connecting phone calls and routing Internet traffic. Investigators said that China's government could tamper with the technology to spy and to steal trade secrets. Both companies failed to provide details about their corporate control and government ties, they said. The presence of Communist Party offices in the companies' headquarters also raised red flags. (Note that neither is a so-called SOE, state-owned enterprise.)

????On October 10, Shen Danyang, a spokesman for China's Commerce Ministry, responded in an article by the official Xinhua news agency that the accusations were based on "subjective guesswork" and "untrue evidence." He said that the U.S. had violated its long-held free-market principles and risked undermining cooperation and development between the two countries. "We hope the United States can make concrete efforts to create a just and fair market environment for the two countries' companies and promote a sound development of bilateral economic and trade ties," Shen said.

????In the short-term, Ray Mota, managing partner for ACG Research, a market research firm that tracks the technology industry, said that U.S. companies like Cisco Systems (CSCO) and Juniper Networks (JNPR) would benefit. While their Chinese rivals try to repair their reputations, U.S. companies will likely win more contracts. Longer-term, however, U.S. tech companies may be in for turbulence, Mota explained. If a trade war starts, they will likely lose business in China. "It depends on how much hardball the Chinese government wants to play," he said. "This is something that could hurt U.S. companies."

????Richard D'Aveni, a business professor at Dartmouth College, predicted that China would indeed retaliate, but that it would wait until later rather than acting quickly. And don't expect a big announcement because it's not their style. "I think the Chinese will be more subtle," said D'Aveni, who is the author of Strategic Capitalism: The New Economic Strategy for Winning the Capitalism Cold War. "The Chinese don't usually react directly. They will strike somewhere else, or in some other way to send a signal that they are displeased."