????如果創(chuàng)新就意味著大筆賠錢(qián)，那在線音樂(lè)服務(wù)業(yè)顯然明白怎么像個(gè)搖滾明星似的大把燒錢(qián)。

????對(duì)這個(gè)圈子里的少數(shù)幾家頂級(jí)企業(yè)如流媒體音樂(lè)服務(wù)提供商Spotify和Pandora來(lái)說(shuō)，用戶(hù)使用率和收入增長(zhǎng)率是實(shí)實(shí)在在的，比如日前Pandora的財(cái)報(bào)就聲稱(chēng)已經(jīng)實(shí)現(xiàn)了收支平衡。但運(yùn)營(yíng)的成本到底如何呢？很多情況下，尚不清楚用戶(hù)增加之后利潤(rùn)是否也會(huì)同步增長(zhǎng)。每過(guò)幾年就會(huì)興起一種新服務(wù)，吸引用戶(hù)，但隨后就會(huì)碰到和以前的服務(wù)一樣的成本問(wèn)題：和版權(quán)所有人的合作條件。唱片公司、音樂(lè)出版商、以及一些嶄露頭角的音樂(lè)人往往會(huì)繞開(kāi)傳統(tǒng)音樂(lè)版權(quán)的行規(guī)選擇單飛，比如現(xiàn)在自己做老板的泰勒?史薇芙特（Taylor Swift，美國(guó)鄉(xiāng)村音樂(lè)女歌手——譯注），他們都希望、并且需要從流媒體或音樂(lè)下載中分一杯羹，而這種做法既能促成交易，也能毀了交易。

????談到這個(gè)行業(yè)性問(wèn)題，音樂(lè)網(wǎng)站MP3tunes.com的首席執(zhí)行官兼創(chuàng)始人邁克?羅賓遜寫(xiě)道：“在大多數(shù)行業(yè)里，如果供應(yīng)商提出了無(wú)理要求，零售商就可以去找其他供應(yīng)商。但因?yàn)榘鏅?quán)法賦予了唱片公司和音樂(lè)出版商政府許可的壟斷權(quán)，并不存在這種選擇。因此數(shù)字音樂(lè)零售商只有兩條路可走：要么接受合作條件，要么在貨品清單里清除這些歌曲?！?/p>

????盈利能力問(wèn)題

????據(jù)《華爾街日?qǐng)?bào)》（The Wall Street Journal ）報(bào)道，從2010年到2011年，Spotify的營(yíng)收增長(zhǎng)了140%，達(dá)到2.36億美元，付費(fèi)訂閱用戶(hù)達(dá)到400萬(wàn)人，注冊(cè)用戶(hù)為3,300萬(wàn)（其中多數(shù)人使用的是Facebook上的免費(fèi)含廣告版）。2010年，Spotify的營(yíng)收還只有9,900萬(wàn)美元。不過(guò)，一些分析師和行業(yè)觀察家關(guān)注的是虧損率這一數(shù)字。2010年，Spotify虧損5,700美元，比2009年的虧損額4,200萬(wàn)美元高出不少。與之相似，今年第二財(cái)季Pandora為了購(gòu)買(mǎi)內(nèi)容支付了6,050萬(wàn)美元，也就是付給音樂(lè)行業(yè)的版稅，而去年同期該費(fèi)用僅為3,370萬(wàn)美元。

????行業(yè)咨詢(xún)公司Digital Cowboys的分析師大衛(wèi)?庫(kù)薩克稱(chēng)：“目前（線上音樂(lè)業(yè)）仍處于相對(duì)早期的發(fā)展階段，線上音樂(lè)只占市場(chǎng)整體的一小部分（人們?nèi)匀辉谫?gòu)買(mǎi)CD）。目前還沒(méi)有真正成熟可行的商業(yè)模式……別忘了，發(fā)現(xiàn)并分享新音樂(lè)最大的線上來(lái)源仍然是YouTube?！?/p>

????眼下，在線聽(tīng)音樂(lè)、分享音樂(lè)已經(jīng)方便到了極點(diǎn)，或者說(shuō)已經(jīng)到了各家快打破頭的局面。只要用手指一劃，或是點(diǎn)點(diǎn)鼠標(biāo)，就能輕松享受各式各樣的服務(wù)：依托于于算法、電臺(tái)風(fēng)格的（Pandora）；社交分享流媒體式的（Spotify）；下載到蘋(píng)果獨(dú)家設(shè)備的（iTunes），以及幾乎其他所有設(shè)備都會(huì)采用的、由亞馬遜（Amazon）和谷歌（Google）提供的下載保存在云端的服務(wù)。還有那些規(guī)模較小、提供流媒體和訂閱服務(wù)的企業(yè)：Rhapsody（它沒(méi)能搭上社交媒體這艘大船），Slacker, Rdio, MOG及其他不計(jì)其數(shù)的公司。此外，還得算上赤裸裸的盜版行為。

????實(shí)際上，在線音樂(lè)產(chǎn)業(yè)現(xiàn)在共有兩種商業(yè)模式：廣告模式——庫(kù)薩克認(rèn)為這種模式會(huì)隨著規(guī)模擴(kuò)大而導(dǎo)致虧損加??；還有就是訂閱模式，這是他認(rèn)為長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看更可行的模式。

????而使問(wèn)題進(jìn)一步復(fù)雜化的癥結(jié)是音樂(lè)產(chǎn)業(yè)所特有的特點(diǎn)：太多彼此獨(dú)立又相互競(jìng)爭(zhēng)的利益方都在爭(zhēng)奪這塊大蛋糕上屬于自己的那一份。唱片公司、音樂(lè)出版商以及音樂(lè)人自己（這個(gè)群體爭(zhēng)奪的勁頭要小得多）都有一套對(duì)他們自己有利的條件，其中包括最惠國(guó)待遇，最低付款額，單曲價(jià)格，公司總收入所占百分比，還有就是最讓人抓狂的、詳盡闡述競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局的報(bào)告。

????庫(kù)薩克稱(chēng)：“要就全球性合作來(lái)談條件真是困難異常。這個(gè)行業(yè)的人習(xí)慣的情況是，存儲(chǔ)格式變了，營(yíng)收就隨之而來(lái)，從唱片到8軌軟片，從盒式磁帶到CD，營(yíng)收總是水到渠成地跟著而來(lái)。但自從MP3出現(xiàn)以后，他們習(xí)慣的這一幕就消失了……”

????If disruption means losing money, then online music services know how to spend like rock stars.

????Adoption and revenue growth rates at a few top players like Spotify and Pandora are real -- Pandora (P) reported earnings yesterday, breaking even -- but what are the costs to play? It's still unclear in many cases if audience growth will translate to profit.

????Every few years a new service rises up, captures audiences but then has the same cost-centric problems as every one that has come before: negotiating terms with rights holders. Music labels, music publishers, and in some cases, emerging artists who circumvent traditional music property conventions by going it alone -- think self-managed Taylor Swift -- all want or need a stake in streams or downloads, and that can make or break a deal.

????"With most other businesses, if a supplier makes unreasonable demands, a retailer can turn to other providers," wrote Michael Robertson, CEO and founder of MP3tunes.com, about the problems with the industry. "Since copyright law gives record labels and publishers a government-granted monopoly, no such option is possible with music. Digital vendors have only two options: Accept the terms or not include those songs in their offering."

????The profitability problem

????From 2010 to 2011, Spotify grew revenues 140 percent to $236 million with a paid-subscription base of 4 million users and a total of 33 million registered users (most of whom use the free ad-supported version via Facebook), the Wall Street Journal reported. Spotify revenue grew from $99 million in 2010. However, the number some analysts and industry watchers are looking at is the rate of loss. In 2010, Spotify lost $57 million, which was an increase from 2009's $42 million in losses. Similarly, Pandora, paid $60.5 million in the second quarter this year for content acquisition --royalties to the music industry -- a number up from $33.7 million in the same period last year.

????"It's still relatively early days," said David Kusek of industry consultancy Digital Cowboys. "Online music is a still a small percentage of the overall market (CDs still being consumed). There really is no perfected business model yet. .. Remember, the largest online source for discovery of new music and sharing is still YouTube."

????Listening and sharing music online couldn't be more convenient or crowded. Options are easily found at the swipe of a finger or click of a mouse: the algorithm, radio-style option (Pandora); a social-sharing streaming strategy (Spotify); the download model to Apple-only devices (iTunes) and the download, keep in-the-cloud options from Amazon and Google on almost every other device. Then there are the smaller streaming and subscription players: Rhapsody (who has missed the social boat so far), Slacker, Rdio, MOG and more. Or, there is straight-up piracy.

????There are essentially two business models for online music right now: advertising--a losing model with scale, says Kusek, or subscription, which he thinks has more viability long term.

????What complicates the issue further is unique to the music industry: Too many separate, competing interests fighting for a piece of the pie. Music labels, music publishers, and artists themselves (to a much lesser extent) all have certain terms in their favor including most favored nation, minimum payments, per-play costs, percent of total company revenue, and one of the most head-scratching, detailed reporting of the competition.

????"Negotiating deals on a global scale is extremely hard," said Kusek. " What you used to have was revenue following format changes: From vinyl to 8 track to cassette to CD, the revenue always followed. That didn't happen with MP3s exactly… "